基于概率密度演化的输电塔-线体系抗风可靠性分析

以三线两塔直线段输电塔-线体系为工程对象,应用有限元数值模拟,建立了基于概率密度演化的输电塔-线体系抗风可靠性分析方法。首先,应用谱表示-降维方法模拟结构脉动风场,生成风荷载的代表性样本集合。然后,结合概率密度演化理论,分析了输电塔-线体系考虑气弹效应的随机动力反应。最后,应用等价极值思想构建了风荷载作用下输电塔-线体系失效准则,进而对输电塔-线体系的抗风可靠性进行精细化分析。本文结合谱表示-降维方法与概率密度演化理论,实现了仅用较少数量的代表性样本来精细地分析结构的抗风可靠性,为工程实践提供参考。     

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??We consider probabilistic meanings for some numerical characteristics of single birth processes. Some probabilities of events, such as extinction probability, returning probability, are represented in terms of these numerical characteristics. Two examples are also presented to illustrate the value of the results.     

中国突发性地质灾害分布的统计规律

本文根据地域间突发性地质灾害发生的相似性,将全国区划为9个自然区域;然后依据统计学的大数原理,建立了概率模型分析地质灾害在9个自然区域的分布特点以及隶属于各自然区域的所有省、市和自治区的地质灾害分布特征。结果显示不同类型与不同的区域之间存在着不同程度的强相依性,分布格局明显。     

Interval-valued probability density estimation based on quasi-continuous histograms: Proof of the conjecture

The sensitivity of histogram computation to the choice of a reference interval and number of bins can be attenuated by replacing the crisp partition on which the histogram is built by a fuzzy partition. This involves replacing the crisp counting process by a distributed (weighted) voting process. The counterpart to this low sensitivity is some confusion in the count values: a value of 10 in the accumulator associated with a bin can mean 10 observations in the bin or 40 observations near the bin. This confusion can bias the statistical decision process based on such a histogram. In a recent paper, we proposed a method that links the probability measure associated with any subset of the reference interval with the accumulator values of a fuzzy partition-based histogram. The method consists of transferring counts associated with each bin proportionally to its interaction with the considered subset. Two methods have been proposed which are called precise and imprecise pignistic transfer. Imprecise pignistic transfer accounts for the interactivity of two consecutive cells in order to propagate, in the estimated probability measure, counting confusion due to fuzzy granulation. Imprecise pignistic transfer has been conjectured to include precise pignistic transfer. The present article proposes a proof of this conjecture.     

Anabiosis of phase distribution of a three-level atom

We study the phase probability distribution of a three-level atom interacting with a cavity field in the presence of two-photon detuning and decoherence. Anabiosis of the phase probability distribution is observed due to the presence of the Stark shift. The simulation demonstrates that there is an enhancement of the phase sensitivity as soon as the two-photon detuning is considered. The W-Wigner function is also examined and it is shown that the nonclassical effect is apparent, however, for a small value of the decoherence factor.     

Transitions in a genotype selection model driven by coloured noises

This paper investigates a genotype selection model subjected to both a multiplicative coloured noise and an additive coloured noise with different correlation time τ1 and τ2 by means of the numerical technique. By directly simulating the Langevin Equation, the following results are obtained. （1） The multiplicative coloured noise dominates, however, the effect of the additive coloured noise is not neglected in the practical gene selection process. The selection rate μ decides that the selection is propitious to gene A haploid or gene B haploid. （2） The additive coloured noise intensity and the correlation time τ2 play opposite roles. It is noted that α and τ2 can not separate the single peak, while can make the peak disappear and ~-2 can make the peak be sharp. （3） The multiplicative coloured noise intensity D and the correlation time τ1 can induce phase transition, at the same time they play opposite roles and the reentrance phenomenon appears. In this case, it is easy to select one type haploid from the group with increasing D and decreasing τ1.     

Passive infrared detector used for detection of very slowly moving of crawling people

The paper presents construction and principle of operation of passive IR detectors (PIR detectors) of a large detection range. Important virtue of these detectors is highly efficient detection of slowly moving or crawling people. The described here PIR detector detects crawling people at the distance of 140 m. To ensure high probability of detection of slowly moving objects, new method of signals analysis was applied. On the basis of the carried out real-time measurements, both probability of detection and false alarms were determined.     

父代种群参与竞争遗传算法几乎必然收敛

熟知,标准遗传算法如不采用“杰出者记录策略”则必不收敛。本文发现：允许父代种群参与竞争是标准遗传算法几乎必然收敛的条件。特别地,我们运用鞅收敛定理证明：允许父代种群参与竞争型遗传算法能以概率1确保在限步内达到全局最优解,且收敛与种群规模无关。所获结果对该类遗传算法的应用奠定了可靠基础。     

On Zeta-Functions of Finite Abelian Groups

In the paper, the zeta-functions of finite Abelian groups of rank 2 and 3 are considered. One- and two-dimensional limit theorems for these zeta-functions on the complex plane and in the space of meromorphic functions are obtained.     

On Fuzzy Probability Theory

Our main aim from this work is to see which theorems in classical probability theory are still valid in fuzzy probability theory. Following Gudder's approach [Demonestratio Mathematica 31(3), 1998, 235–254; Foundations of Physics, 30, 1663–1678] to fuzzy probability theory, the basic concepts of the theory, that is of fuzzy probability measures and fuzzy random variables (observables), are presented. We show that fuzzy random variables extend the usual ones. Moreover, we prove that for any separable metrizable space, the crisp observables coincide with random variables. Then we prove the existence of a joint observable for any collection of observables, and we prove the weak law of large numbers and the central limit theorem in the fuzzy context. We construct a new definition of almost everywhere convergence. After proving that Gudder's definition implies ours and presenting an example that indicates that the converse is not true, we prove the strong law of large numbers according to this definition.