基于HMM的机载设备状态健康评估方法研究

针对机载设备的状态健康评估问题,采用隐马尔科夫模型(HMM)对其进行性能退化程度的评估。首先引入状态条件概率矢量对HMM进行不确定性改进,并推导了其表达式;其次以状态条件概率比值为基础,给出了机载设备状态等级量化分值的计算方法,并据此设计了机载设备状态健康评估流程。最后以飞机发动机温控放大器为例进行仿真验证,结果表明上述方法能够给出直观、准确的状态评估结果。     

Estimation of rating classes and default probabilities in credit risk models with dependencies

Let Y = m(X) + ε be a regression model with a dichotomous output Y and a one‐step regression function m . In the literature, estimators for the three parameters of m , that is, the breakpoint θ and the levels a and b , are proposed for independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.) observations. We show that these standard estimators also work in a non‐i.i.d. framework, that is, that they are strongly consistent under mild conditions. For that purpose, we use a linear one‐factor model for the input X and a Bernoulli mixture model for the output Y . The estimators for the split point and the risk levels are applied to a problem arising in credit rating systems. In particular, we divide the range of individuals' creditworthiness into two groups. The first group has a higher probability of default and the second group has a lower one. We also stress connections between the standard estimator for the cutoff θ and concepts prevalent in credit risk modeling, for example, receiver operating characteristic. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Study of Bimodal Drop Size Distributions of Emulsion

In order to increase the present understanding of bimodal emulsion drop size distributions, systematic series of experiments have been carried out to investigate the effects of formulation variables on bimodal drop size distributions, and probability distribution functions were proposed to analyze the distribution. The results show that, the span of the drop size and Sauter mean diameter become larger when the dispersed phase volume fraction becomes higher and rotor speed becomes lower; the Frechet function represents the experimental data satisfactorily. The prediction model of Sauter mean diameter established by combining the prediction theory of the maximum stable drop diameter and experimental analysis results can fit the experimental data well.     

低能C36团簇在金刚石(100)晶面沉积时的影响因素

"使用Brenner-LJ拟合势描述了金刚石与C36团簇原子间的相互作用,并用分子动力学模拟的方法研究单个C36(D6h)在金刚石(100)晶面的沉积机制．通过仿真实验分析了C36团簇的入射能量、入射点位置、入射姿势、入射角度等因素对其成核初期化学吸附过程以及沉积后其稳定性的影响．研究发现：由于C36入射点位置及入射姿势的不同,其在金刚石(100)晶面沉积时的沉积阈值最小值为20 eV,最大值为60 eV;在入射角不超过60o斜射时,由于水平运动分量的存在,C36可能翻滚及平滑至成键能量较小的区域后再成键     

基于语义的软件服务故障自动诊断模型

模仿学习是机器人仿生机制研究的主要内容之一,即通过观察、理解、学习、模仿示教行为实现机器人的仿生特性。基于高斯过程分别表达采集离散示教信号所构成的示教轨迹和含有未知参数策略的模仿轨迹,构建模仿学习方法框架,将概率模型匹配引入到模仿学习中,以KL散度为代价函数比较两种轨迹的概率分布,运用梯度下降法寻求使KL散度最小的最优模仿控制策略,将策略应用于模仿机器人以完成与示教相同的模仿任务。以关节型机器人的机械臂摆动行为模仿为学习任务进行仿真,结果表明基于概率轨迹匹配的模仿学习方法能够实现机械臂摆动行为模仿,学习过程较传统方法简易且学习效果较好。     

铯47D精细能级超冷里德堡原子自由演化的动力学研究

用连续窄线宽激光器将超冷铯里德堡原子分别激发到47D_3/2, 47D_5/2精细态, 观察了处于里德堡精细态的铯原子向超冷铯等离子体自由演化的过程, 详细对比了不同精细态的铯里德堡原子预电离时间、电离速率以及等离子体的转化效率. 将里德堡原子快速转化为等离子体的过程解释为局域势阱内由预电离产生的电子与里德堡原子的快速碰撞导致的雪崩电离.     

NA序列部分和的矩完全收敛性

讨论了NA序列部分和的矩完全收敛性,在一定条件下获得了NA序列矩完全收敛的充要条件,显示了矩完全收敛和矩条件之间的关系,将独立同分布随机变量序列矩完全收敛的结果推广到NA序列,得到了与独立随机变量序列情形类似的结果.     

示性函数在初等概率论中的应用

示性函数在实分析等课程中很基本且应用广泛,但在初等概率论教材里应用不多.本文举例说明示性函数可以帮助学生理解初等概率论中一些基本概念、结论并精简其中一些计算.