Data breaches: Goodness of fit,pricing, and risk measurement

Some research on cyber risk has been conducted in the field of information technology, but virtually no research exists in the actuarial domain. As a first step toward a more profound actuarial discussion, we use multidimensional scaling and goodness-of-fit tests to analyze the distribution of data breach information. Our results show that different types of data breaches need to be modeled as distinct risk categories. For severity modeling, the log-skew-normal distribution provides promising results. The findings add to the recent discussion on the use of skewed distributions in actuarial modeling (Vernic, 2006; Bolancé et al., 2008; Eling, 2012). Moreover, they provide useful insights for actuaries working on the implementation of cyber insurance policies. We illustrate the usefulness of our results in two applications on risk measurement and pricing.     

决策树分类模型在工程项目评标风险预警中的应用

本文将数据挖掘中的决策树分类方法运用到工程项目评标数据分析,从200多个天津市工程项目招投标打分数据中,随机抽取15个招投标项目中的67个承包商的评标专家打分数据进行分析,得到中标承包商技术和商务评分分界点,进而得到工程项目潜在风险的预警阈值,然后借助因子分析辨识出风险来源并进行预警。     

On the Bullwhip Avoidance Phase: The Synchronised Supply Chain

The aim of this paper is to analyse the operational response of a Synchronised Supply Chain (SSC). To do so, first a new mathematical model of a SSC is presented. An exhaustive Latin Square design of experiments is adopted in order to perform a boundary variation analysis of the main three parameters of the periodic review smoothing (S, R) order-up-to policy: i.e., lead time, demand smoothing forecasting factor, and proportional controller of the replenishment rule. The model is then evaluated under a variety of performance measures based on internal process benefits and customer benefits. The main results of the analysis are: (I) SSC responds to violent changes in demand by resolving bullwhip effect and by creating stability in inventories under different parameter settings and (II) in a SSC, long production–distribution lead times could significantly affect customer service level. Both results have important consequences for the design and operation of supply chains.     

Association of UCP3, APN,and TNF-a Gene Polymorphisms with Type 2 Diabetes in a Population of Northern Chinese Han Patients

We observed the polymorphism distribution and coaction of uncoupling protein 3(UCP3)-55C/T,adiponectin(APN)+45T/G and tumor necrosis factor(TNF)-a-308G/A on the onset and development of T2DM in a North...     

Percentile residual life orders

In this paper we study a family of stochastic orders of random variables defined via the comparison of their percentile residual life functions. Some interpretations of these stochastic orders are given, and various properties of them are derived. The relationships to other stochastic orders are also studied. Finally, some applications in reliability theory and finance are described. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

ON THE EXPECTED DISCOUNTED PENALTY FUNCTION IN A MARKOV-DEPENDENT RISK MODEL WITH CONSTANT DIVIDEND BARRIER

This article considers a Markov-dependent risk model with a constant dividend barrier. A system of integro-differential equations with boundary conditions satisfied by the expected discounted penalty function, with given initial environment state, is derived and solved. Explicit formulas for the discounted penalty function are obtained when the initial surplus is zero or when all the claim amount distributions are from rational family. In two state model, numerical illustrations with exponential claim amounts are given.     

Circular threshold quantum secret sharing

This paper proposes a circular threshold quantum secret sharing （TQSS） scheme with polarized single photons. A polarized single photon sequence runs circularly among any t or more of n parties and any t or more of n parties can reconstruct the secret key when they collaborate. It shows that entanglement is not necessary for quantum secret sharing. Moreover, the theoretic efficiency is improved to approach 100% as the single photons carrying the secret key are deterministically forwarded among any t or more of n parties, and each photon can carry one bit of information without quantum storage. This protocol is feasible with current technology.     

Quantum state sharing of an arbitrary qudit state by using nonmaximally generalized GHZ state

We present a scheme for quantum state sharing of an arbitrary qudit state by using nonmaximally entangled generalized Greenberger-Horne-Zeilinger （GHZ） states as the quantum channel and generalized Bell-basis states as the joint measurement basis. We show that the probability of successful sharing an unknown qudit state depends on the joint measurements chosen by Alice. We also give an expression for the maximally probability of this scheme.     

On a Property of Subexponential Distributions

Let F be a distribution function (d.f.) on [0, ) with finite first moment m >0. We define the integrated tail distribution function F ₁ of F by F ₁(t)=m^-1 ₀ ^t (1- F(u))du, t0. In this paper, we obtain sufficient conditions under which implications FSF ₁S and F ₁S FS hold, where S is the class of subexponential distributions.     

Threshold Visual Cryptography Schemes with Specified Whiteness Levels of Reconstructed Pixels

In 1994, Naor and Shamir introduced an unconditionally secure method for encoding black and white images. This method, known as a threshold visual cryptography scheme (VCS), has the benefit of requiring no cryptographic computation on the part of the decoders. In a -VCS, a share, in the form of a transparency, is given to ">n users. Any ">k users can recover the secret simply by stacking transparencies, but ">k-1 users can gain no information about the secret whatsoever.In this paper, we first explore the issue of contrast, by demonstrating that the current definitions are inadequate, and by providing an alternative definition. This new definition motivates an examination of minimizing pixel expansion subject to fixing the VCS parameters ">h and ">l. New bounds on pixel expansion are introduced, and connections between these bounds are examined. The best bound presented is tighter than any previous bound. An analysis of connections between (2, ">n) schemes and designs such as BIBD's, PBD's, and (">r, )-designs is performed. Also, an integer linear program is provided whose solution exactly determines the minimum pixel expansion of a (2, ">n)-VCS with specified ">h and >l.