Mathematical Modeling and Simulation of Corrosion Processes in Nigerian Crude Oil Pipelines

In this work, a corrosion prediction mathematical model for risk assessment in oil and gas production and transportation facilities has been created. This work focuses on partial pressure of carbon (iv) oxide, CO₂ and the operating temperature in process equipment and transportation facility pipes as a function of corrosion rate. The model equation formulated was based on the principle of multiple linear regressions of data. The final model representing the corrosion rate of crude oil equipment was obtained CR = b _o + b ₁ T + b ₂ P (CO ₂). The model was simulated using polymath software. The correlation between the experimental and simulated resulted obtained using root mean square deviation (coefficient of determination) was 99.74% which is high, suggesting that the relationship between the predictor and response variables is linear. The variation in the model equation is 0.0066374. This low value of the variance shows that the model is accurate.     

Levels of Pesticide Residues in Food: Evaluation of Data from Total Diet Studies in Italy

Abstract

Total Diet Studies on pesticide residues in foods carried out in Italy in the last two decades are briefly summarized and data are discussed. Health risk assessment is expressed by the ratio total intake/ADI (%ADI ingested) for each compound and by the sum of the percentages of ADI for each compound within the same class of pesticides.

The total dietary intake of chlorinated pesticides, that was almost 100% of ADI in the years 1970-74, decreased down to 10% in the period 1978-84. This trend was confirmed for DDT in recent years, while data on Lindane and Heptachlor seem to be constant.

As regards the organophosphorus pesticides the sum of the percentages of ADI ingested for each compound, extrapolated from recent data (1990-1991) is about 20% and can be regarded as reasonably acceptable because the study included practically all the mainly used compounds.

Only few data are available for some pesticides like dithiocarbamates, especially EBDCs and their derivatives (e.g. ETU), other carbamates (e.g. aldicarb), paraquat etc. Moreover, analytical methods for these compounds should be improved.

The need for a considerable improvement in the number and organization of monitoring structures, in the use of standardized analytical procedures, in good laboratory practice standards and in the realibility of “monitoring protocols” and their homogeneity is evidenced.     

The long‐term extreme price risk measure of portfolio in inventory financing: An application to dynamic impawn rate interval

Different from the short‐term risk measure for traditional financial assets (stocks, bonds, etc.), the key to illiquid inventory portfolio traded in the over‐the‐counter markets is to estimate the long‐term extreme price risk with time varying volatility. In this article, a new long‐term extreme price risk (value at risk and conditional value at risk) measure method for inventory portfolio and an application to dynamic impawn rate interval are proposed. To realize this, we first establish AutoRegressive Moving Average‐Exponential Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity‐Extreme Value Theory model and multivariatet‐Copula to depict the autocorrelation, fat tails, and volatility clustering of returns of inventories and the nonlinear dependence structure of inventories. Furthermore, we obtain the long‐term extreme price risk with time varying volatility via Monte Carlo simulation instead of square‐root‐of time rule. The results show that, first, benefits from risk diversification is significant; second, long‐term extreme price risk measure of inventory portfolio via Monte Carlo method outperforms the square‐root‐of time rule; the last is that the dynamic rate interval based on the long‐term price risk is superior to the crude rules of thumb in terms of reducing efficiency loss and improving risk coverage. In summary, this article provides a new quantitative framework for managing the risk of portfolio in inventory financing practice for banks constrained by risk limitation. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Complexity 20: 17–34, 2015     

Quality-by-Design-Based Development of n-Propyl-Gallate-Loaded Hyaluronic-Acid-Coated Liposomes for Intranasal Administration

The present study aimed to develop n-propyl gallate (PG)-encapsulated liposomes through a novel direct pouring method using the quality-by-design (QbD) approach. A further aim was to coat liposomes with hyaluronic acid (HA) to improve the stability of the formulation in nasal mucosa. The QbD method was used for the determination of critical quality attributes in the formulation of PG-loaded liposomes coated with HA. The optimized formulation was determined by applying the Box–Behnken design to investigate the effect of composition and process variables on particle size, polydispersity index (PDI), and zeta potential. Physiochemical characterization, in vitro release, and permeability tests, as well as accelerated stability studies, were performed with the optimized liposomal formulation. The optimized formulation resulted in 90 ± 3.6% encapsulation efficiency, 167.9 ± 3.5 nm average hydrodynamic diameter, 0.129 ± 0.002 PDI, and −33.9 ± 4.5 zeta potential. Coated liposomes showed significantly improved properties in 24 h in an in vitro release test (>60%), in vitro permeability measurement (420 μg/cm²) within 60 min, and also in accelerated stability studies compared to uncoated liposomes. A hydrogen-peroxide-scavenging assay showed improved stability of PG-containing liposomes. It can be concluded that the optimization of PG-encapsulated liposomes coated with HA has great potential for targeting several brain diseases.     

Operational risk: Emerging markets,sectors and measurement

The role of decision support systems in mitigating operational risks in firms is well established. However, there is a lack of investment in decision support systems in emerging markets, even though inadequate operational risk management is a key cause of discouraging external investment. This has also been exacerbated by insufficient understanding of operational risk in emerging markets, which can be attributed to past operational risk measurement techniques, limited studies on emerging markets and inadequate data.     

Real-World Forward Rate Dynamics With Affine Realizations

We investigate the existence of affine realizations for Lévy driven interest rate term structure models under the real-world probability measure, which so far has only been studied under an assumed risk-neutral probability measure. For models driven by Wiener processes, all results obtained under the risk-neutral approach concerning the existence of affine realizations are transferred to the general case. A similar result holds true for models driven by compound Poisson processes with finite jump size distributions. However, in the presence of jumps with infinite activity we obtain severe restrictions on the structure of the market price of risk; typically, it must even be constant.     

Ochratoxin A and 2′R-Ochratoxin A in Selected Foodstuffs and Dietary Risk Assessment

The aim of this study was to estimate the contamination of grain coffee, roasted coffee, instant coffee, and cocoa purchased in local markets with ochratoxin A (OTA) and its isomerization product 2′R-ochratoxin A (2′R-OTA), and to assess risk of dietary exposure to the mycotoxins. OTA and 2′R-OTA content was determined using the HPLC chromatography with immunoaffinity columns dedicated to OTA. OTA levels found in all the tested samples were below the maximum limits specified in the European Commission Regulation EC 1881/2006. Average OTA concentrations calculated for positive samples of grain coffee/roasted coffee/instant coffee/cocoa were 0.94/0.79/3.00/0.95 µg/kg, with the concentration ranges: 0.57–1.97/0.44–2.29/0.40–5.15/0.48–1.97 µg/kg, respectively. Average 2′R-OTA concentrations calculated for positive samples of roasted coffee/instant coffee were 0.90/1.48 µg/kg, with concentration ranges: 0.40–1.26/1.00–2.12 µg/kg, respectively. In turn, diastereomer was not found in any of the tested cocoa samples. Daily intake of both mycotoxins with coffee/cocoa would be below the TDI value even if the consumed coffee/cocoa were contaminated with OTA/2′R-OTA at the highest levels found in this study. Up to now only a few papers on both OTA and 2′R-OTA in roasted food products are available in the literature, and this is the first study in Poland.     

Dissipation Behavior and Acute Dietary Risk Assessment of Thiamethoxam and Its Metabolite Clothianidin on Spinach

Thiamethoxam and its metabolite clothianidin residues pose a potential threat to human health. This study aims to investigate the residue behavior and acute dietary risk assessment of thiamethoxam and clothianidin on spinach. Thiamethoxam and clothianidin were extracted using a quick, easy, cheap, effective, rugged, safe (QuEChERS) method and analyzed using liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry (LC-MS/MS). At spike levels from 0.01 to 5 mg kg⁻¹, the average recoveries of both analytes were in the range of 94.5–105.5%, with relative standard deviations (RSDs) of 3.8–10.9%. The dissipation behavior of thiamethoxam followed first-order kinetics, with half-lives of ≤1.6 days. Clothianidin appeared readily as a plant metabolite with highest level exhibited during 3 to 5 days after application. Temperature and light may be two main factors for degradation of thiamethoxam. Besides, acute risk assessment of thiamethoxam and clothianidin was evaluated with risk quotients (RQs) <100%, which suggested a low health risk for all consumer groups of Chinese residents.     

新冠疫情对我国信贷风险冲击的定量测算

文章建立了宏观经济传导模型和信贷风险传导模型,根据对GDP的估计,对新型冠状病毒感染肺炎疫情下的2020年全国和若干疫情严重省市的不良贷款率进行了定量测算.假设一季度内疫情得以控制,全年GDP增速下降至5.7％的情景下,预计全国年末不良贷款率约3％,不良贷款余额比2019年增加逾80％,接近2019年国内商业银行贷款损...     

镉的人体健康效应

综述了镉暴露对人体健康的危害、人体对镉的需要量和居民膳食日摄入量、镉暴露生物标记物及危险性评估。过量镉暴露可引起肾、肺、肝、骨和生殖效应以及癌症。在中国和其他国家进行的最新研究表明，生活在镉污染区的一般人群可发生以骨矿密度降低和骨折发生率增加为特征的骨效应；出现肾小管功能异常的镉累积量比骨效应剂量更低，也比从前估计的临界剂量更低。附4图11表25篇参考文献。