Data breaches: Goodness of fit,pricing, and risk measurement

Some research on cyber risk has been conducted in the field of information technology, but virtually no research exists in the actuarial domain. As a first step toward a more profound actuarial discussion, we use multidimensional scaling and goodness-of-fit tests to analyze the distribution of data breach information. Our results show that different types of data breaches need to be modeled as distinct risk categories. For severity modeling, the log-skew-normal distribution provides promising results. The findings add to the recent discussion on the use of skewed distributions in actuarial modeling (Vernic, 2006; Bolancé et al., 2008; Eling, 2012). Moreover, they provide useful insights for actuaries working on the implementation of cyber insurance policies. We illustrate the usefulness of our results in two applications on risk measurement and pricing.     

决策树分类模型在工程项目评标风险预警中的应用

本文将数据挖掘中的决策树分类方法运用到工程项目评标数据分析,从200多个天津市工程项目招投标打分数据中,随机抽取15个招投标项目中的67个承包商的评标专家打分数据进行分析,得到中标承包商技术和商务评分分界点,进而得到工程项目潜在风险的预警阈值,然后借助因子分析辨识出风险来源并进行预警。     

Association of UCP3, APN,and TNF-a Gene Polymorphisms with Type 2 Diabetes in a Population of Northern Chinese Han Patients

We observed the polymorphism distribution and coaction of uncoupling protein 3(UCP3)-55C/T,adiponectin(APN)+45T/G and tumor necrosis factor(TNF)-a-308G/A on the onset and development of T2DM in a North...     

决策者具有(严格)凸性偏好结构下的一类交互式多目标决策方法

为了更好地解决决策者具有(严格)凸性偏好结构下的多目标决策问题,一般目标空间为有界凸域的情形常常可以转化为目标空间为有界闭凸区域的情形,首先分析了切割平面及该平面上偏好最优点与被切割平面分割成的为有界闭凸区域的目标空间或目标空间的子集的两个部分之间的关系;然后分析并指出了对于包含全局偏好最优目标方案点的为有界闭凸域的目标空间及其子集(准最优目标集),在确定了切割平面上的偏好最优点后,通过适当地选取供决策者与切割平面的偏好最优点进行比较判断的目标方案点,经过一次比较就可以确定一个新的范围更小的包含全局偏好最优目标方案点的目标空间的有界闭凸子区域(准最优目标集).为获取切割平面上的偏好最优点,提出了改进的坐标轮换法.在这些结论和方法的基础上,提出了决策者具有(严格)凸性偏好结构下的一类交互式多目标决策方法,要求决策者提供较易的偏好性息,决策效能较好.     

Percentile residual life orders

In this paper we study a family of stochastic orders of random variables defined via the comparison of their percentile residual life functions. Some interpretations of these stochastic orders are given, and various properties of them are derived. The relationships to other stochastic orders are also studied. Finally, some applications in reliability theory and finance are described. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

ON THE EXPECTED DISCOUNTED PENALTY FUNCTION IN A MARKOV-DEPENDENT RISK MODEL WITH CONSTANT DIVIDEND BARRIER

This article considers a Markov-dependent risk model with a constant dividend barrier. A system of integro-differential equations with boundary conditions satisfied by the expected discounted penalty function, with given initial environment state, is derived and solved. Explicit formulas for the discounted penalty function are obtained when the initial surplus is zero or when all the claim amount distributions are from rational family. In two state model, numerical illustrations with exponential claim amounts are given.     

On a Property of Subexponential Distributions

Let F be a distribution function (d.f.) on [0, ) with finite first moment m >0. We define the integrated tail distribution function F ₁ of F by F ₁(t)=m^-1 ₀ ^t (1- F(u))du, t0. In this paper, we obtain sufficient conditions under which implications FSF ₁S and F ₁S FS hold, where S is the class of subexponential distributions.     

A Graded Quadrivalent Logic for Ordinal Preference Modelling: Loyola–Like Approach

We extend a quadrivalent logic of Belnap to graded truth values in order to handle graded relevance of positive and negative arguments provided in preferential information concerning ranking of a finite set of alternatives. This logic is used to design the preference modelling and exploitation phases of decision aiding with respect to the ranking problem. The graded arguments are presented on an ordinal scale and their aggregation leads to preference model in form of four graded outranking relations (true, false, unknown and contradictory). The exploitation procedure combines the min-scoring procedure with the leximin rule. Aggregation of positive and negative arguments as well as exploitation of the resulting outranking relations is concordant with an advice given by St. Ignatius of Loyola (1548) how to make a good choice.     

A stochastic model for the HIV epidemic in homosexual populations involving age and race

In this paper, we derive a stochastic model for the HIV epidemic in homosexual populations involving age and race. To account for effects of different mixing patterns, a low risk selection rule is introduced. The model is then formulated in terms of chain multinomial distributions by means of which the means are derived. Some simulation studies by computer indicate clearly that age and race have a significant impact on the HIV epidemic.     

An asymptotic minimax risk bound for estimation of a linear functional relationship

We consider estimation of the parameter B in a multivariate linear functional relationship X_i=ξ_i+ξ_1i, Y_i=Bξ_i+ξ_2i, i=1,…,n, where the errors (ζ_1i^′, ζ_2i^′) are independent standard normal and (ξ_i, i ) is a sequence of unknown nonrandom vectors (incidental parameters). If there are no substantial a priori restrictions on the infinite sequence of incidental parameters then asymptotically the model is nonparametric but does not fit into common settings presupposing a parameter from a metric function space. A special result of the local asymptotic minimax type for the m.1.e. of B is proved. The accuracy of the normal approximation for the m.l.e. of order n^−1/2 is also established.