Optimal intervention under stress scenarios: A case of the Korean financial system

We consider optimal intervention methods under budget constraints when financial systems face economic shocks. We propose two policies formulated by mixed-integer linear programs where regulators inject cash into institutions. One is to minimize systemic losses, and the other is to minimize the number of defaulting institutions. Using publicly available data on the Korean financial system, we construct its entire network and apply stress scenarios to the system to compare the performances of intervention strategies and derive insights on their workings.     

Collective risk models with dependence

In actuarial science, collective risk models, in which the aggregate claim amount of a portfolio is defined in terms of random sums, play a crucial role. In these models, it is common to assume that the number of claims and their amounts are independent, even if this might not always be the case. We consider collective risk models with different dependence structures. Due to the importance of such risk models in an actuarial setting, we first investigate a collective risk model with dependence involving the family of multivariate mixed Erlang distributions. Other models based on mixtures involving bivariate and multivariate copulas in a more general setting are then presented. These different structures allow to link the number of claims to each claim amount, and to quantify the aggregate claim loss. Then, we use Archimedean and hierarchical Archimedean copulas in collective risk models, to model the dependence between the claim number random variable and the claim amount random variables involved in the random sum. Such dependence structures allow us to derive a computational methodology for the assessment of the aggregate claim amount. While being very flexible, this methodology is easy to implement, and can easily fit more complicated hierarchical structures.     

Bayesian Estimation and Statistical Analysis of Risk Measurements

The Bayesian model are established for the VaR and related risk measurements. The relationship between VaR and other risk measurements including expect shortfall, tail condition expectation and conditional value at risk are discussed. Furthermore, the Bayesian estimates and Bayesian predictors of these risk measurement are derived. Thirdly, the consistency and asymptotic normality in the exponential risk model are proved. Finally, the numerical simulation method is used to verify the convergence rate under different sample sizes.     

Studies on oral bioavailability and first‐pass metabolism of withaferin A in rats using LC–MS/MS and Q‐TRAP

Withaferin A (WA) is one of the major bioactive steroidal lactones with extensive pharmacological activities present in the plant Withania somnifera. The absolute oral bioavailability of WA remains unknown and human‐related in vitro data are not available. Therefore, in the present study, the absolute oral bioavailability of WA in male rats and the in vitro screening of absorption factors by Q‐trap and LC–MS/MS analysis were conducted to explore possible clinical properties of WA. The developed and validated analytical methods were successfully applied to the pharmacokinetic studies and in vitro measurement of WA. The oral bioavailability was determined to be 32.4 ± 4.8% based on intravenous (5 mg/kg) and oral (10 mg/kg) administrations of WA in male rats. The in vitro results showed that WA could be easily transported across Caco‐2 cells and WA did not show as a substrate for P‐glycoprotein. Moreover, the stability of WA was similar between male rat and human in simulated gastric fluid (stable), in intestinal microflora solution (slow decrease) and in liver microsomes (rapid depletion, with a half‐life of 5.6 min). As such, the first‐pass metabolism of WA was further verified by rat intestine‐liver in situ perfusion, revealing that WA rapidly decreased and 27.1% remained within 1 h, while the content of three major metabolites (M1, M4, M5) identified by Q‐trap increased. This perfusion result is consistent with the oral bioavailability results in vivo. The first‐pass metabolism of WA might be the main barrier in achieving good oral bioavailability in male rats and it is predicted to be similar in humans. This study may hold clinical significance.     

市场需求信息不对称下的保兑仓融资风险控制策略

信息不对称风险广泛存在于保兑仓融资过程当中,本文运用Stackelberg博弈模型刻画融资系统成员关系,运用动态规划优化分析方法求解对应博弈均衡策略。总结出需求信息不对称的三种表现形式:信息造假,信息优势及信息隐匿,分析各类信息不对称情形对融资系统所造成影响,并相应提出实现信息显示功能的契约甄别机制。研究表明:零售商可从信息不对称中获取巨大信息优势,但对其他成员造成损害,其中信息隐匿对生产商损害程度更高;二部定价机制可实现信息甄别,但生产商须为之付出信息租金,造成效率损失;而合理参数设定下的二部定价加回购机制有助于进一步改进融资系统及各成员收益,甚至达到次协调状态,最终实现融资成员收益的帕累托改进。本研究对于控制供应链融资中的信息风险、改善融资效率提供了理论依据及决策参考。     

Serum pharmacochemistry combined with multiple data processing approach to screen the bioactive components and their metabolites in Mutan Cortex by ultra‐performance liquid chromatography tandem mass spectrometry

Root cortex of Paeonia suffruticosa Andrews (Paeoniaceae), known as Moutan Cortex (MC), is known to have anti‐allergic and anti‐inflammatory properties. However, the constituents absorbed into blood after oral administration of MC remain unknown. A sensitive and rapid method by ultra‐high‐pressure liquid chromatography–electrospray ionization–quadrupole‐time‐of‐flight mass spectrometry (UPLC‐ESI‐Q‐TOF‐MS) technology and the MetaboLynx^TM software combined with multiple data processing approach (Mdpa) was established to investigate the absorbed constituents in rats after oral administration of MC, providing unique high‐throughput capabilities for drug metabolism study. A hyphenated electrospray ionization and quadrupole‐time‐of‐flight analyzer was used for the determination of accurate mass of the fragment ion in negative mode, with excellent MS mass accuracy and enhanced data acquisition. This rapid automated analysis method was successfully applied for screening and identification of the constituents absorbed and metabolized studies of MC after oral administration to rats. A total of 46 peaks were obtained from MC, 41 of which were tentatively characterized. In the VIP‐plot of orthogonal partial least‐squares discriminant analysis, 23 interesting ions in serum samples were extracted, and 16 parent components and seven metabolites were detected in vivo. The integrative serum pharmacochemistry technique, UPLC‐ESI‐Q‐TOF‐MS, and Mdpa method were successfully applied for rapid discovery of multiple components from MC. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

中国进口食品安全风险评估的统计学方法

近年来,随着对外贸易的快速发展和人民生活水平的不断提高,我国已经成为食品进口大国。运用科学的方法优化检验资源配置,强化对进口食品安全的风险管理,是一个关系到人民福社的重大问题。国际上通行的做法是对不同种类的食品和检测项目的潜在风险进行评估,并根据评估结果制定有针对性的监督抽检计划,使得更多的检验资源可以投入到对高风险产品和项目的监管中去。我国在这方面的管理实践才刚刚起步,急需建立一套符合我国食品进口自身特点和管理需求的风险评价模型和相应的估计方法。本文借鉴了其它国家的相关做法,并结合我国进口食品的管理需求和历史检测数据的特点,制定了一套完整的风险评价和估计方法。     

地下水脆弱性风险预警和评估的区间三角模糊多属性决策模型

应用基于逼近理想解排序法的区间三角模糊多属性决策模型,对三江平原六大分区地下水脆弱性进行了风险预警和评估.评估结果与前人吻合,可为有关决策部门采取相应降低环境风险的措施提供参考.实例验证表明,模型具有更高的计算精度和更好的评价效果,为有关环境风险决策部门对地下水风险预警和评估提供了新的思路和方法.     

Detectability conditions for output-only subspace identification

ABSTRACT

The scope of output-only/blind identification is restricted to stochastic/statistical processes, but for the first time in this study, the detectability conditions for general output-only subspace identification are investigated. This aids the range of input sources to be extended in a much realistic manner, beyond the only stochastic inputs. For this purpose, the subspace framework is assigned to make a connection between the output signal contents and the LTI system order. A few substantial hypotheses and algebraic statements are propounded affirming the sufficiency of the genuine output sequences for the identification purpose. This can be perceived as the cornerstone of state-space model reconstruction. In order to consolidate the notions according to reality, several examples are studied and examined for different input classes with stochastic disturbance.