Reservoir operations optimization via fuzzy criterion decision processes

In this paper, we propose the treatment of complex reservoir operation problems via our newly developed tool of fuzzy criterion decision processes. This novel approach has been shown to be a more flexible and useful analysis tool especially when it is desirable to incorporate an expert’s knowledge into the decision models. Additionally, it has been demonstrated that this form of decision models will usually result in an optimal solution, which guarantees the highest satisfactory degree. We provide a practical exemplification procedure for the models presented as well as an application example.     

广义风险过程中渐近方差的非参数估计

本文对广义风险过程中的渐近方差作了非参数估计,得出并证明了两个定理,为广义风险过程中破产概率的区间估计作了理论准备．     

Converging Marriage in Honey-Bees Optimization and Application to Stochastic Dynamic Programming

In this paper, we first refine a recently proposed metaheuristic called “Marriage in Honey-Bees Optimization” (MBO) for solving combinatorial optimization problems with some modifications to formally show that MBO converges to the global optimum value. We then adapt MBO into an algorithm called “Honey-Bees Policy Iteration” (HBPI) for solving infinite horizon-discounted cost stochastic dynamic programming problems and show that HBPI also converges to the optimal value.     

Optimal asset allocation for pension funds under mortality risk during the accumulation and decumulation phases

In a financial market with one riskless asset and n risky assets whose prices are lognormal, we solve in a closed form the problem of a pension fund maximizing the expected CRRA utility of its surplus till the (stochastic) death time of a representative agent. We consider a unique asset allocation problem for both accumulation and decumulation phases. The optimal investment in the risky assets must decrease during the first phase and increase during the second one. We accordingly suggest it is not optimal to manage the two phases separately, and outsourcing of allocation decisions should be avoided in both phases. JEL: G23, G11 MSC 2000: 62P05, 91B28, 91B30, 91B70, 93E20     

SPAR: stochastic programming with adversarial recourse

We consider a general adversarial stochastic optimization model. Our model involves the design of a system that an adversary may subsequently attempt to destroy or degrade. We introduce SPAR, which utilizes mixed-integer programming for the design decision and a Markov decision process (MDP) for the modeling of our adversarial phase.     

Solving multiple-objective problems in the objective space

Projection and relaxation techniques are employed to decompose a multiobjective problem into a two-level structure. The basic manipulation consists in projecting the decision variables onto the space of the implicit tradeoffs, allowing the definition of a relaxed multiobjective master problem directly in the objective space. An additional subproblem tests the feasibility of the solution encountered by the relaxed problem. Some properties of the relaxed problem (linearity, small number of variables, etc.) render its solution efficient by a number of methods. Representatives of two different classes of multiobjective methods [the Geoffrion, Dyer, Feinberg (GDF) method and the fuzzy method of Baptistella and Ollero] are implemented and applied within this context to a water resources allocation problem. The results attest the computational viability of the overall procedure and its usefulness for the solution of multiobjective problems.This work was partially sponsored by grants from CNP_q and FAPESP, Brazil. The authors are indebted to the anonymous reviewers for their valuable comments.     

On sequential procedures for the point estimation of the mean of a normal population

The sequential procedures developed by Starr (1966, Ann. Math. Statist., 37, 1173–1185) for estimating the mean of a normal population are further analyzed. Asymptotic properties of the regret and first two moments of the stopping rules are studied and second-order approximations are derived.     

改进的蝗虫优化算法在双目标应急物资中心选址问题中的应用

近年来世界各地频发灾情疫情等紧急事件,严重影响人民的生活物资保障。在这种情况下,急需建立应急物资中心来缓解燃眉之急。该类问题通常面临资源稀缺并且时间相对紧迫的处境,因此需要在短时间内获得合理的应急设施选址方案来提升服务的质量和效率。本文对应急物资中心选址问题展开研究,提出一种考虑后续运输成本以及有概率发生紧急事件而导致无法正常运送物资的双目标离散选址模型,并为此设计一种二进制多目标蝗虫优化算法。该算法采用模糊关联熵系数来引导迭代更新,同时为其添加外部档案,最优解选择机制和竞争决策机制来提升算法性能。多次数值实验表明该算法的计算效率和求解质量较高,可作为应急物资中心选址问题的一种可行且有效的算法。     

Bayesian sequential reliability for Weibull and related distributions

Assume that the probability density function for the lifetime of a newly designed product has the form: [H(t)/Q()] exp{–H(t)/Q()}. The Exponential(), Rayleigh, WeibullW(, ) and Pareto pdf's are special cases.Q() will be assumed to have an inverse Gamma prior. Assume thatm independent products are to be tested with replacement. A Bayesian Sequential Reliability Demonstration Testing plan is used to eigher accept the product and start formal production, or reject the product for reengineering. The test criterion is the intersection of two goals, a minimal goal to begin production and a mature product goal. The exact values of various risks and the distribution of total number of failures are evaluated. Based on a result about a Poisson process, the expected stopping time for the exponential failure time is also found. Included in these risks and expected stopping times are frequentist versions, thereof, so that the results also provide frequentist answers for a class of interesting stopping rules.This research was supported by NSF grants DMS-8703620 and DMS-8923071, and forms part of the Ph.D. Thesis of the first author, the development of which was supported in part by a David Ross grant at Purdue University. The authors thank the editors and a referee for insightful comments and suggestions.