国家关键技术管理计算机系统研究

本文根据国家关键技术管理工作的特点，本着提高决策质量，满足用户要求的原则，分析和设计国家关键技术管理计算机系统，为高层次宏观决策提供丰富的信息支持。     

Some new classes of stochastic order relations among arithmetic random variables, with applications in actuarial sciences

Recently, Fishbum and Lavalle (1995) and Lefèvre and Utev (1996) have considered some stochastic order relations specific for arithmetic random variables. The present work is concerned with these orderings, together with two other classes of stochastic order relations closely related. First, attention is paid to characterizations and various properties of all these orderings. Then, sufficient conditions of crossing-type for the two new classes of orderings are derived and extrema among discrete random variables are deduced. This is applied in actuarial sciences to obtain new bounds for the classical single life premiums as well as for the probability of ruin in the compound binomial risk model.     

证券投资组合的风险与收益

本文利用概率统计原理对证券的投资组合能减轻所遇的风险作了讨论 ,并介绍了如何选择投资组合可使所遇风险达到最小     

一类经典”秘书问题”的推广

”秘书问题”在最优停时理论的发展中曾起过重要作用 ,实际中的一类问题与”秘书问题”有类似之处 ,但比”秘书问题”更复杂 .本文将经典”秘书问题”进行推广 ,建立了一类比经典”秘书问题”更有实际意义的模型 ,并给出了该类模型的解 .     

Determination of the portfolio selection for a property-liability insurance company

This paper presents an analysis of a portfolio model which can be used to assist a property-liability insurance company in determining the optimal composition of the insurance and investment portfolios. By introducing insurer's threshold risk and relaxing some non-realistic assumptions made in traditional chance constraint insurance and investment portfolio models, we propose a method for an insurer to maximize his return threshold for a given threshold risk level. This proposed model can be used to optimize the composition of underwriting and investment portfolios regarding the insurer's threshold risk level, as well as to generate the efficient frontier by adjusting insurer's threshold risk levels. A numerical example is given based on the industry's aggregated data for a sixteen year period.     

Integration and propagation of a multi-criteria decision making model in constraint programming

In this paper we propose a general integration scheme for a Multi-Criteria Decision Making model of the Multi-Attribute Utility Theory in Constraint Programming. We introduce the Choquet integral as a general aggregation function for multi-criteria optimization problems and define the Choquet global constraint that propagates this function during the Branch-and-Bound search. Finally the benefits of the propagation of the Choquet constraint are evaluated on the examination timetabling problem.     

Time Consistent Dynamic Risk Measures

We introduce the time-consistency concept that is inspired by the so-called “principle of optimality” of dynamic programming and demonstrate – via an example – that the conditional value-at-risk (CVaR) need not be time-consistent in a multi-stage case. Then, we give the formulation of the target-percentile risk measure which is time-consistent and hence more suitable in the multi-stage investment context. Finally, we also generalize the value-at-risk and CVaR to multi-stage risk measures based on the theory and structure of the target-percentile risk measure.     

个体对股票投资的风险态度研究

传统理论认为个体是风险厌恶的,展望理论提出个体是损失厌恶的,对于损失的感受程度比赢得要强烈得多。本文通过实验表明,大部分个体对于股票投资是风险追求,而不是风险厌恶的,而且在两个参考点之外的区间个体更偏好风险,而在两个参考点之内的区间对风险的偏好程度相对要小。     

Non-Euler–Lagrangian Pareto-optimality Conditions for Dynamic Multiple Criterion Decision Problems

In this paper the problem of verifying the Pareto-optimality of a given solution to a dynamic multiple-criterion decision (DMCD) problem is investigated. For this purpose, some new conditions are derived for Pareto-optimality of DMCD problems. In the literature, Pareto-optimality is characterized by means of Euler-Lagrangian differential equations. There exist problems in production and inventory control to which these conditions cannot be applied directly (Song 1997). Thus, it is necessary to explore new conditions for Pareto-optimality of DMCD problems. With some mild assumptions on the objective functionals, we develop necessary and/or sufficient conditions for Pareto-optimality in the sprit of optimization theory. Both linear and non-linear cases are considered.     

ALICE实验中光子谱仪的触发选判机制的模拟研究

对ALICE实验光子谱仪的触发选判机制进行了模拟研究, 内容包括: 1) 对光子谱仪的能量重建性能进行了研究, 通过计算机模拟检验光子谱仪探测器对大横动量范围的入射粒子的能量重建性能; 2) 对光子谱仪探测器的事件触发效率进行了研究, 通过计算机模拟分析触发阈值的选取并计算触发效率; 3) 对光子谱仪探测器的事件触发频率进行了研究, 通过计算机模拟对p-p和Pb-Pb两种碰撞模式下的触发频率分别进行了估算和讨论.