Calibrating software reliability models when the test environment does not match the user environment

Software failures have become the major factor that brings the system down or causes a degradation in the quality of service. For many applications, estimating the software failure rate from a user's perspective helps the development team evaluate the reliability of the software and determine the release time properly. Traditionally, software reliability growth models are applied to system test data with the hope of estimating the software failure rate in the field. Given the aggressive nature by which the software is exercised during system test, as well as unavoidable differences between the test environment and the field environment, the resulting estimate of the failure rate will not typically reflect the user‐perceived failure rate in the field. The goal of this work is to quantify the mismatch between the system test environment and the field environment. A calibration factor is proposed to map the failure rate estimated from the system test data to the failure rate that will be observed in the field. Non‐homogeneous Poisson process models are utilized to estimate the software failure rate in both the system test phase and the field. For projects that have only system test data, use of the calibration factor provides an estimate of the field failure rate that would otherwise be unavailable. For projects that have both system test data and previous field data, the calibration factor can be explicitly evaluated and used to estimate the field failure rate of future releases as their system test data becomes available. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Scale Invariance Properties in the Simulated Annealing Algorithm

The Boltzmann distribution used in the steady-state analysis of the simulated annealing algorithm gives rise to several scale invariant properties. Scale invariance is first presented in the context of parallel independent processors and then extended to an abstract form based on lumping states together to form new aggregate states. These lumped or aggregate states possess all of the mathematical characteristics, forms and relationships of states (solutions) in the original problem in both first and second moments. These scale invariance properties therefore permit new ways of relating objective function values, conditional expectation values, stationary probabilities, rates of change of stationary probabilities and conditional variances. Such properties therefore provide potential applications in analysis, statistical inference and optimization. Directions for future research that take advantage of scale invariance are also discussed.     

Cosmic dust and our origins

The small solid particles in the space between the stars provide the surfaces for the production of many simple and complex molecules. Processes involving the effects of ultraviolet irradiation of the thin (hundredth micron) mantles are shown to produce a wide range of molecules and ions also seen in comets. Some of the more complex ones inferred from laboratory experiments are expected to play an important role in the origin of life. An outline of the chemical evolution of interstellar dust as observed and as studied in the laboratory is presented. Observations of comets are shown to provide substantial evidence for their being fluffy aggregates of interstellar dust as it was in the protosolar nebula, i.e. the interstellar cloud which collapsed to form the solar system. The theory that comets may have brought the progenitors of life to the earth is summarized.     

A MODEL OF TROPICAL MARINE RESERVE‐FISHERY LINKAGES

ABSTRACT. The excessive and unsustainable exploitation of our marine resources has led to the promotion of marine reserves as a fisheries management tool. Marine reserves, areas in which fishing is restricted or prohibited, can offer opportunities for the recovery of exploited stock and fishery enhancement. In this paper we examine the contribution of fully protected tropical marine reserves to fishery enhancement by modeling marine reserve‐fishery linkages. The consequences of reserve establishment on the long‐run equilibrium fish biomass and fishery catch levels are evaluated. In contrast to earlier models this study highlights the roles of both adult (and juvenile) fish migration and larval dispersal between the reserve and fishing grounds by employing a spawner‐recruit model. Uniform larval dispersal, uniform larval retention and complete larval retention combined with zero, moderate and high fish migration scenarios are analyzed in turn. The numerical simulations are based on Mombasa Marine National Park, Kenya, a fully protected coral reef marine reserve comprising approximately 30% of former fishing grounds. Simulation results suggest that the establishment of a fully protected marine reserve will always lead to an increase in total fish biomass. If the fishery is moderately to heavily exploited, total fishery catch will be greater with the reserve in all scenarios of fish and larval movement. If the fishery faces low levels of exploitation, catches can be optimized without a reserve but with controlled fishing effort. With high fish migration from the reserve, catches are optimized with the reserve. The optimal area of the marine reserve depends on the exploitation rate in the neighboring fishing grounds. For example, if exploitation is maintained at 40%, the ‘optimal’ reserve size would be 10%. If the rate increases to 50%, then the reserve needs to be 30% of the management area in order to maximize catches. However, even in lower exploitation fisheries (below 40%), a small reserve (up to 20%) provides significantly higher gains in fish biomass than losses in catch. Marine reserves are a valuable fisheries management tool. To achieve maximum fishery benefits they should be complemented by fishing effort controls.     

Ground-state properties of LiV2O4 and Li1-xZnx(V1-yTiy)2O4

We present susceptibility, microwave resistivity, NMR and heat-capacity results for Li_1-xZn_x(V_1-yTi_y)₂O₄ with 0 ? x ? 0.3 and 0 ? y ? 0.3. For all doping levels the susceptibility curves can be fitted with a Curie-Weiss law. The paramagnetic Curie-Weiss temperatures remain negative with an average value close to that of the pure compound Θ≈ - 36 K. Spin-glass anomalies are observed in the susceptibility, heat-capacity and NMR measurements for both type of dopants. From the temperature dependence of the spin-lattice relaxation rate we found critical-dynamic behavior in the Zn doped compounds at the freezing temperatures. For the Ti-doped samples two successive freezing transitions into disordered low-temperature states can be detected. The temperature dependence of the heat capacity for Zn-doped compounds does not resemble that of canonical spin glasses and only a small fraction of the total vanadium entropy is frozen at the spin-glass transitions. For pure LiV₂O₄ the spin-glass transition is completely suppressed. The temperature dependence of the heat capacity for LiV₂O₄ can be described using a nuclear Schottky contribution and the non-Fermi liquid model, appropriate for a system close to a spin-glass quantum critical point. Finally an ( x / y , T )-phase diagram for the low-doping regime is presented. Received 16 March 2001 and Received in final form 30 October 2001     

Time delay as a key to apoptosis induction in the p53 network

A feedback mechanism that involves the proteins p53 and mdm2, induces cell death as a controlled response to severe DNA damage. A minimal model for this mechanism demonstrates that the response may be dynamic and connected with the time needed to translate the mdm2 protein. The response takes place if the dissociation constant k between p53 and mdm2 varies from its normal value. Although it is widely believed that it is an increase in k that triggers the response, we show that the experimental behaviour is better described by a decrease in the dissociation constant. The response is quite robust upon changes in the parameters of the system, as required by any control mechanism, except for few weak points, which could be connected with the onset of cancer. Received 8 May 2002 / Received in final form 9 July 2002 Published online 17 September 2002     

ω-meson photoproduction on nucleons in the near-threshold region

The European Physical Journal A - The ω-meson photoproduction, γ + p→p + ω, is studied in the framework of a model, containing π-meson exchange in t-channel and...     

鞅方法在一类破产问题中的应用

本文从鞅条件出发 ,推导出了总理赔过程分别为复合 Poisson过程与复合二项过程 ,利率强度波动为带跳的 Poisson过程情形下的调节方程 ,并由此得到了一些有趣的结果。     

Likelihood Ratio Processes for Markovian Particle Systems with Killing and Jumps

We consider Markov processes built from pasting together pieces of strong Markov processes which are killed at a position dependent rate and connected via a transition kernel. We give necessary and sufficient conditions for local absolute continuity of probability laws for such processes on a suitable path space and derive an explicit formula for the corresponding likelihood ratio process. The main tool is the consideration of the process between successive jumps – what we call ‘elementary experiments’ – and criteria for absolute continuity of laws of the process there. We apply our results to systems of branching diffusions with interactions and immigrations. This revised version was published online in June 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

一致Banach空间中非扩张映象的弱收敛定理

设犈是一致凸Ｂａｎａｃｈ空间，满足Ｏｐｉａｌ条件或具有Ｆｒｅｃｈｅｔ可微范数，犆是犈的非空闭凸子集，且犜：犆→犆是非扩张映象．又设对任何初始数据狓１ ∈犆，序列｛狓狀｝由下列修改了的Ｉｓｈｉｋａｗａ迭代程序生成：狓狀＋１ ＝狋狀犜狀（狊狀犜狀狓狀＋ （１－狊狀）狓狀）＋ （１－狋狀）狓狀，　狀≥１， （Ｉ）其中，数列｛狋狀｝与｛狊狀｝满足下列条件（ｉ）和（ｉｉ）之一：（ｉ）狋狀∈ ［犪，犫］且狊狀∈ ［０，犫］；（ｉｉ）狋狀∈ ［犪，１］且狊狀∈ ［犪，犫］，这里，常数犪，犫满足０＜犪≤犫＜１．作者证明了，犜有不动点的充要条件是，｛狓狀｝ 弱收敛且｛‖狓狀－犜狓狀‖｝收敛到０．而且，由此即知，若犜有不动点，则｛狓狀｝弱收敛到犜的一个不动点．