Analyzing the prices of the most expensive sheet iron all over the world: Modeling, prediction and regime change

The private car license plates issued in Shanghai are bestowed the title of “the most expensive sheet iron all over the world”, more expensive than gold. A citizen has to bid in a monthly auction to obtain a license plate for his new private car. We perform statistical analysis to investigate the influence of the minimal price P_min of the bidding winners, the quota of private car license plates, the number of bidders, as well as two external shocks including the legality debate of the auction in 2004 and the auction regime reform in January 2008 on the average price of all bidding winners. It is found that the legality debate of the auction had marginal transient impact on the average price in a short time period. In contrast, the change of the auction rules has significant permanent influence on the average price, which reduces the price by about 3020 yuan Renminbi. It means that the average price exhibits nonlinear behaviors with a regime change. The evolution of the average price is independent of the number of bidders in both regimes. In the early regime before January 2008, the average price was influenced only by the minimal price P_min in the preceding month with a positive correlation. In the current regime since January 2008, the average price is positively correlated with the minimal price and the quota in the preceding month and negatively correlated with the quota in the same month. We test the predictive power of the two models using 2-year and 3-year moving windows and find that the latter outperforms the former. It seems that the auction market becomes more efficient after the auction reform since the prediction error increases.     

康德与福柯：被误读的“启蒙”及其后现代思想效应

康德的《回答这个问题：什么是启蒙？》是一篇被人们广泛讨论和引用的关于启蒙的论文,但是,对这篇论文中的启蒙概念却存在着广泛的误解和分歧,这尤其体现在理性的公开运用和私人运用的区分上。劳尔森的文章《颠覆性的康德：“公共的”和“公共性”的词汇》为我们正确理解这一区分提供了基本的思想史背景。由此,通过联系康德的其他论述,我们才能把握康德启蒙概念的三层完整含义：“自己思维”“站在他人的地位上思维”和“与自身一致地思维”。福柯的《何为启蒙》只是对康德启蒙概念第一个层次的基于其解构主义立场的片面理解,由此,也就显示了被误读的“启蒙”的后现代思想效应。     

“绿色原则”司法适用的法理、风险与规制

“绿色原则”具有司法可适用性,能够扮演裁判依据角色对案件判决结果起到实质性作用。内容上反映出较高的要件事实可还原性、方法上对法律论证涵摄模式的适应以及功能上对法律规则局限性之弥补成为“绿色原则”作为裁判依据的正当性基础。但仍需认识到,作为一项法律原则,“绿色原则”的司法适用存在着较高的失范风险,一旦适用不当会危及私人自治的践行和破坏法的安定性。“绿色原则”的司法适用应当以谦抑性为基本理念,以“禁止向一般条款逃逸”为情境要求,以干预情形类型化为程度参照,以排除认定合同效力、判断合同解除权和推导公法责任为后果约束。     

市场化改革背景下养老机构服务供给博弈研究

考虑政府补贴、市场化程度、养老机构服务成本、老年人偏好等因素,构建了完全国有化、公私并存的半市场化和完全市场化三种情形下公办和民办养老机构之间的两阶段博弈模型,比较分析了市场化程度对养老机构服务价格制定和服务水平选择的影响,实证讨论了各参数变化对养老机构收益及社会福利的影响。研究表明:完全市场化机制会降低养老机构服务质量,完全国有化机制会陷入社会福利陷阱,探索公私并存的最佳市场化水平才能更好地提高社会福利;适度推进市场化改革,提高养老机构服务水平,降低民办养老机构服务成本,适度提高对民办养老机构的补贴,将有效缓解公办和民办养老机构的不公平竞争;提高老年人支付能力,推进养老机构供给侧结构性改革,将保障机构养老服务的有效供给,促进养老服务业的健康有序发展。     

基于ZigBee网络和超声定位的智能跟随小车

基于成熟的IEEE802.15.4协议和ZigBee无线模块,结合超声定位,设计了一种新颖的智能跟随系统。设计的核心为PIC18F4620单片机和MRF24J40MA无线收发模块,通过无线收发来完成节点间的识别与同步,同时以超声测距系统完成对被跟踪目标的定位,通过控制驱动电机动作实现对指定目标的定距离跟随。控制网络以子网的形式控制不同系统的分时定位跟随,同时管理各移动定位系统的入网和切换。样机测试结果表明系统达到了预期的跟随设计要求,具有一定的工程使用价值。     

A New Car Following Model： Comprehensive Optimal Velocity Model

In this paper, we present a new car-following model, i.e. comprehensive optimal velocity model (COVM), whose optimal velocity function not only depends on the following distance of the preceding vehicle, but also depends on the velocity difference with preceding vehicle. Simulation results show that COVM is an improvement over the previous ones theoretically. Then, the stability condition of the model is obtained by the linear stability analysis, which has shown that the model could obtain a bigger stable region thanprevious models in the phase diagram. Through the nonlinear analysis, the Burgers, Korteweg-de Vries (KdV) and modified KdV (mKdV) equations are derived for the triangular shock wave, the soliton wave, and the kink-antikink soliton wave. At the same time, numerical simulations are also carried out to show that the model could simulate these density waves.     

机构投资者增持的经济后果:基于定向增发的实证研究

定向增发背景下,对机构投资者增持行为经济后果展开研究具有重要的现实意义。以2008-2017年我国沪深A股成功进行定向增发的上市公司为样本,本研究采用OLS、POISSON、PSM等方法对机构投资者增持的经济后果及机理进行实证分析与稳健性检验。结果表明:机构投资者整体增持与定向增发上市公司的长期市场表现正相关。考虑机构投资者异质性特征并做进一步分析,价值投资型机构投资者增持行为通过提升企业创新水平显著提升了定向增发上市公司长期市场表现;由于追求短期股权价值波动收益,价格追随型机构投资者增持行为则不利于定向增发上市公司长期市场表现;限售期规定能够有效遏制价格追随型机构投资者的“追涨杀跌”行为。本研究为我国中长期价值投资型机构投资者培育、定向增发资源配置效率提升提供了理论依据。     

Intercept-resend attacks on Chen et al.'s quantum private comparison protocol and the improvements

Recently, Chen et al. presented a novel quantum private comparison (QPC) protocol using triplet GHZ state to enable two parties to compare the equality of their information without revealing the content. The protocol is rather promising because it only requires single-photon measurement with the help of a semi-honest third party to complete the secret comparison. However, this study will point out that a weakness could occur in the eavesdropping check phase. That is, an intercept-resend attack could be launched by one of the two participants to reveal the information content of the other participant—a result that contradicts to the security requirement of a QPC. Fortunately, two solutions are possible to avoid the attack.