Generalized Markov Models of Infectious Disease Spread: A Novel Framework for Developing Dynamic Health Policies

We propose a class of mathematical models for the transmission of infectious diseases in large populations. This class of models, which generalizes the existing discrete-time Markov chain models of infectious diseases, is compatible with efficient dynamic optimization techniques to assist real-time selection and modification of public health interventions in response to evolving epidemiological situations and changing availability of information and medical resources. While retaining the strength of existing classes of mathematical models in their ability to represent the within-host natural history of disease and between-host transmission dynamics, the proposed models possess two advantages over previous models: (1) these models can be used to generate optimal dynamic health policies for controlling spreads of infectious diseases, and (2) these models are able to approximate the spread of the disease in relatively large populations with a limited state space size and computation time.     

口腔医院系统发展对策生成与对策效应定量仿真评价

医院系统是一个复杂系统.对此,采用对策生成与对策实施未来效应仿真评价法对南昌大学口腔医院发展进行研究.首先,对南昌大学口腔医院发展进行了深入调查与数据分析,然后,建立7个增长正反馈环和4个制约负反馈环构成的增长制约反馈基模,揭示现行系统发展的优势和存在的问题,又围绕7个增长正反馈环和4个制约负反馈环的内涵,依据消除制约的原理,提出了消除负反馈环制约的两项管理对策.接着,对管理对策未来实施效应进行仿真评价,基于评价指标建立流位流率系,基于调查数据值及比较分析建立七棵入树的仿真方程,建立仿真模型,分别对南昌大学口腔医院系统发展两项对策实施状况进行仿真评价,定量论证了所制定的管理对策的科学性及实施的必要性,为南昌大学口腔医院十二五规划编制与发展提供了决策依据.     

A three-dimensional hierarchical nanoporous PdCu alloy for enhanced electrocatalysis and biosensing

Nanoporous copper (NPC) obtained by dealloying CuAl alloy is used as both three-dimensional template and reducing agent for the fabrication of nanoporous PdCu alloy with hollow ligaments by a simple galvanic replacement reaction with H₂PdCl₄ aqueous solution. Electron microscopy and X-ray diffraction characterizations demonstrate that after the replacement reaction, the ligaments become hollow tubular structure and the ligament shell is also comprised of small pores and nanoparticles with a typical size of ∼4 nm (third order porosity). The as-prepared nanotubular mesoporous PdCu alloy (NM-PdCu) structure exhibits remarkably improved electrocatalytic activity towards the oxidation of formic acid and H₂O₂ compared with nanoporous Pd (NP-Pd), and can be used for sensitive electrochemical sensing applications. After coupled with glucose oxidase (GOx), the enzyme modified NM-PdCu electrode can sensitively detect glucose over a wide linear range (0.5–20 mM).     

Fibrin glue increases the cell survival and the transduced gene product secretion of the ceiling culture-derived adipocytes transplanted in mice

The development of clinically applicable scaffolds is important for the application of cell transplantation in various human diseases. The aims of this study are to evaluate fibrin glue in a novel protein replacement therapy using proliferative adipocytes and to develop a mouse model system to monitor the delivery of the transgene product into the blood and the fate of the transduced cells after transplantation. Proliferative adipocytes from mouse adipose tissue were transduced by a retroviral vector harboring the human lecithin-cholesterol acyltransferase (lcat) gene, and were subcutaneously transplanted into mice combined with fibrin glue. The lcat gene transduction efficiency and the subsequent secretion of the product in mouse adipocytes were enhanced using a protamine concentration of 500 μg/ml. Adipogenesis induction did not significantly affect the lcat gene-transduced cell survival after transplantation. Immunohistochemistry showed the ectopic enzyme production to persist for 28 days in the subcutaneously transplanted gene- transduced adipocytes. The increased viability of transplanted cells with fibrin glue was accompanied with the decrease in apoptotic cell death. The immunodetectable serum LCAT levels in mice implanted with the fibrin glue were comparable with those observed in mice implanted with Matrigel, indicating that the transplanted lcat gene-transduced adipocytes survived and functioned in the transplanted spaces with fibrin glue as well as with Matrigel for 28 days. Thus, this in vivo system using fibrin is expected to serve as a good model to further improve the transplanted cell/scaffold conditions for the stable and durable cell-based replacement of defective proteins in patients with LCAT deficiency.     

周期性多孔材料等效剪切模量与尺寸效应研究

提出了以圆筒扭转力学模型为基础, 预测周期性多孔材料等效剪切模量及其研究尺寸效 应的一种简单有效计算方法. 以方形孔和圆形孔两种典型多孔材料为例进行了数值计算求解; 同时, 建立了几何参数随体胞尺寸缩放因子$n$的解析关系, 证明了两种构型的周期性多孔材 料的等效剪切模量均随尺寸缩放因子$n$的增大而减小. 当$n \to \infty $时, 即体胞尺寸相对整体结构无限小时, 多孔材料的等效剪切模量趋近收敛于一个恒定值; 当体胞的材料体分比增大时, 多孔材料等效剪切模量也随之增大. 此外, 依据周 期性多孔材料的结构对称特性, 使用体胞子结构有限元计算模型进行等效剪切模量及其尺寸 效应的预测, 极大地提高了计算效率.     

体外预应力加固的技术研究

通过ANSYS有限元模型, 以体外预应力筋为研究对象, 对体外预应力加固的关键技术 进行了研究, 得出体外预应力的作用位置, 尽可能拟合原结构的受力状况, 保证 加固工程的安全性; 体外预应力的补强力筋, 应采用等效面积的置换原则, 使施工的过程 趋于合理; 体外力筋的连接装置, 应该``适、薄、强'; 在加固工程中, 体外预应力筋 纵向交错布筋的设置, 能提升结构的整体延性.     

需求率为斜坡型的一类变质性物品最优库存策略

本文在考虑需求率服从斜坡型分布的情况下,研究了允许缺货且缺货完全回补、变质率服从威布尔分布、补货率为无穷、有限计划期内的库存模型,证明了最优补货策略的存在性,并给出了求解最优补货策略的算法.     

第三方负责回收的Dowrside-Risk闭环供应链协调性研究

以风险中性制造商、第三方物流服务商和具有下行风险特性的销售商组成的闭环供应链系统为背景,证明了在Downside-Risk约束下收益费用共享契约不能使闭环供应链协调.通过将补偿策略附加到该契约,设计了风险共享契约,既能满足下行风险约束,又保证供应链参与方利润均有增量,实现了Downside-Risk约束下闭环供应链的协调.最后通过应用算例说明了风险共享契约的有效性和可行性.     

延期支付条件下零售商的最优售价和订货策略

在供应商给予零售商延期支付和现金折扣的优惠政策下,进一步假设产品的年需求量依赖于零售商产品售价的基础上,建立了由一个零售商和一个供应商所构成的库存决策模型,扩展了经典的经济生产批量(EPQ)模型。通过模型的分析求解,可以得出零售商在上述情况下的最优订货周期、最优售价及最优付款时间的简单判定方法。最后,通过算例,验证了模型的可行性,得出了与实际相符的结论。     

不透明销售的顾客退货政策选择

本文探讨从事不透明销售的零售商对顾客退货政策的选择问题。分别针对零售商垄断和竞争两种市场情况,建立不透明零售商与其它供应链成员(制造商或普通零售商)之间的博弈模型,获得唯一均衡解;对均衡结果进行结构化分析,给出不透明销售方式下采用全额退款政策的判别条件;针对均衡结果,分析零售商垄断情况下产品不透明参数的最优设计,以及零售商竞争情况下的市场分化情况;鉴于净残值参数在退货政策选择中的决定性作用,本文进一步探讨了净残值为正时全额退款政策对各参与方利润及产品需求和价格的影响,分析了净残值在其中的作用机理。本研究能够为不透明零售商制定退货政策和价格以及其它供应链成员制定相关决策提供支持。