Incorporating model uncertainty into optimal insurance contract design

In stochastic optimization models, the optimal solution heavily depends on the selected probability model for the scenarios. However, the scenario models are typically chosen on the basis of statistical estimates and are therefore subject to model error. We demonstrate here how the model uncertainty can be incorporated into the decision making process. We use a nonparametric approach for quantifying the model uncertainty and a minimax setup to find model-robust solutions. The method is illustrated by a risk management problem involving the optimal design of an insurance contract.     

Quadratic cone cutting surfaces for quadratic programs with on–off constraints

We study the convex hull of a set arising as a relaxation of difficult convex mixed integer quadratic programs (MIQP). We characterize the extreme points of the convex hull of the set and the extreme points of its continuous relaxation. We derive four quadratic cutting surfaces that improve the strength of the continuous relaxation. Each of the cutting surfaces is second-order-cone representable. Via a shooting experiment, we provide empirical evidence as to the importance of each inequality type in improving the relaxation. Computational results that employ the new cutting surfaces to strengthen the relaxation for MIQPs arising from portfolio optimization applications are promising.     

A complete characterization of disjunctive conic cuts for mixed integer second order cone optimization

We study the convex hull of the intersection of a disjunctive set defined by parallel hyperplanes and the feasible set of a mixed integer second order cone optimization (MISOCO) problem. We extend our prior work on disjunctive conic cuts (DCCs), which has thus far been restricted to the case in which the intersection of the hyperplanes and the feasible set is bounded. Using a similar technique, we show that one can extend our previous results to the case in which that intersection is unbounded. We provide a complete characterization in closed form of the conic inequalities required to describe the convex hull when the hyperplanes defining the disjunction are parallel.     

Hard uncertainties in multiobjective layout optimization of photovoltaic power plants

This paper describes how to treat hard uncertainties defined by so-called uncertainty maps in multiobjective optimization problems. For the uncertainty map being set-valued, a Taylor formula is shown under appropriate assumptions. The hard uncertainties are modeled using parametric set optimization problems for which a scalarization result is given. The presented new approach for the solution of multiobjective optimization problems with hard uncertainties is then applied to the layout optimization of photovoltaic power plants. Since good weather forecasts are difficult to obtain for future years, weather data are really hard uncertainties arising in the planning process. Numerical results are presented for a real-world problem on the Galapagos island Isabela.     

A new robust DEA model and super-efficiency measure

Applications of traditional data envelopments analysis (DEA) models require knowledge of crisp input and output data. However, the real-world problems often deal with imprecise or ambiguous data. In this paper, the problem of considering uncertainty in the equality constraints is analyzed and by using the equivalent form of CCR model, a suitable robust DEA model is derived in order to analyze the efficiency of decision-making units (DMUs) under the assumption of uncertainty in both input and output spaces. The new model based on the robust optimization approach is suggested. Using the proposed model, it is possible to evaluate the efficiency of the DMUs in the presence of uncertainty in a fewer steps compared to other models. In addition, using the new proposed robust DEA model and envelopment form of CCR model, two linear robust super-efficiency models for complete ranking of DMUs are proposed. Two different case studies of different contexts are taken as numerical examples in order to compare the proposed model with other approaches. The examples also illustrate various possible applications of new models.     

Approximate solutions and scalarization in set-valued optimization

Abstract

Certain notions of approximate weak efficient solutions are considered for a set-valued optimization problem based on vector and set criteria approaches. For approximate solutions based on the vector approach, a characterization is provided in terms of an extended Gerstewitz’s function. For the set approach case, two notions of approximate weak efficient solutions are introduced using a lower and an upper quasi order relations for sets and further compactness and stability aspects are discussed for these approximate solutions. Existence and scalarization using a generalized Gerstewitz’s function are also established for approximate solutions, based on the lower set order relation.     

Two optimization problems in linear regression with interval data

We consider a linear regression model where neither regressors nor the dependent variable is observable; only intervals are available which are assumed to cover the unobservable data points. Our task is to compute tight bounds for the residual errors of minimum-norm estimators of regression parameters with various norms (corresponding to least absolute deviations (LAD), ordinary least squares (OLS), generalized least squares (GLS) and Chebyshev approximation). The computation of the error bounds can be formulated as a pair of max–min and min–min box-constrained optimization problems. We give a detailed complexity-theoretic analysis of them. First, we prove that they are NP-hard in general. Then, further analysis explains the sources of NP-hardness. We investigate three restrictions when the problem is solvable in polynomial time: the case when the parameter space is known apriori to be restricted into a particular orthant, the case when the regression model has a fixed number of regression parameters, and the case when only the dependent variable is observed with errors. We propose a method, called orthant decomposition of the parameter space, which is the main tool for obtaining polynomial-time computability results.     

An adaptive nonmonotone global Barzilai–Borwein gradient method for unconstrained optimization

The Barzilai–Borwein (BB) gradient method has received many studies due to its simplicity and numerical efficiency. By incorporating a nonmonotone line search, Raydan (SIAM J Optim. 1997;7:26–33) has successfully extended the BB gradient method for solving general unconstrained optimization problems so that it is competitive with conjugate gradient methods. However, the numerical results reported by Raydan are poor for very ill-conditioned problems because the effect of the degree of nonmonotonicity may be noticeable. In this paper, we focus more on the nonmonotone line search technique used in the global Barzilai–Borwein (GBB) gradient method. We improve the performance of the GBB gradient method by proposing an adaptive nonmonotone line search based on the morphology of the objective function. We also prove the global convergence and the R-linear convergence rate of the proposed method under reasonable assumptions. Finally, we give some numerical experiments made on a set of unconstrained optimization test problems of the CUTEr collection. The results show the efficiency of the proposed method in the sense of the performance profile introduced (Math Program. 2002;91:201–213) by Dolan and Moré.     

A self‐adaptive intelligence gray prediction model with the optimal fractional order accumulating operator and its application

The self‐adaptive intelligence gray predictive model (SAIGM) has an alterable‐flexible model structure, and it can build a dynamic structure to fit different external environments by adjusting the parameter values of SAIGM. However, the order number of the raw SAIGM model is not optimal, which is an integer. For this, a new SAIGM model with the fractional order accumulating operator (SAIGM_FO) was proposed in this paper. Specifically, the final restored expression of SAIGM_FO was deduced in detail, and the parameter estimation method of SAIGM_FO was studied. After that, the Particle Swarm Optimization algorithm was used to optimize the order number of SAIGM_FO, and some steps were provided. Finally, the SAIGM_FO model was applied to simulate China's electricity consumption from 2001 to 2008 and forecast it during 2009 to 2015, and the mean relative simulation and prediction percentage errors of the new model were only 0.860% and 2.661%, in comparison with the ones obtained from the raw SAIGM model, the GM(1, 1) model with the optimal fractional order accumulating operator and the GM(1, 1) model, which were (1.201%, 5.321%), (1.356%, 3.324%), and (2.013%, 23.944%), respectively. The findings showed both the simulation and the prediction performance of the proposed SAIGM_FO model were the best among the 4 models.