Sensitivity analysis for discrete optimal control problems

We present local sensitivity analysis for discrete optimal control problems with varying endpoints in the case when the customary regularity of boundary conditions can be violated. We study the behavior of the optimal solutions subject to parametric perturbations of the problem.     

配送量不定的供应链协调

本文研究供应链管理中配送量不确定时，制造商和分销商之间的协调问题。通过建立惩罚和奖励机制模型来协调供应链各部分的运作，使得分散系统就如一个整体。同时分析供应链的利润分配问题，分别得出各个机制下分销商的最优决策。     

线性分式规划最优解集的求法

本文使用多面集的表示定理，导出了线性分式规划最优解集的结构，并给出确定全部最优解的计算步骤。     

OPTIMAL INVESTMENT IN THE PROTECTION OF A VULNERABLE BIOLOGICAL RESOURCE

It is assumed that the probability of destruction of a biological asset by natural hazards can be reduced through investment in protection. Specifically a model, in which the hazard rate depends on both the age of the asset and the accumulated invested protection capital, is assumed. The protection capital depreciates through time and its effectiveness in reducing the hazard rate is subject to diminishing returns. It is shown how the investment schedule to maximize the expected net present value of the asset can be determined using the methods of deterministic optimal control, with the survival probability regarded as a state variable. The optimal investment pattern involves “bang-bang-singular” control. A numerical scheme for determining jointly the optimal investment policy and the optimal harvest (or replacement) age is outlined and a numerical example involving forest fire protection is given.     

Intramolecular photocycloaddition of β-stilbazoles tethered by silyl chains

Intramolecular (2+2) photocycloaddition of β-stilbazoles tethered by silyl chains took place with high efficiency. Complexation with dicarboxylic acid or catechol further enhanced both the efficiency and stereoselectivity.     

An applied cell mapping method for optimal control problems

From the application point of view, a series of modifications are proposed for the cell mapping method discussed in Ref. 1 for the optimal control analysis of dynamical systems. The cell order around the target set is rearranged. A set of common discriminate principles is used for the selection of the optimal one among competing control strategies of the same cost. Inequality constraints of the system are taken into account. The number of elements in the set of allowable time intervals is not prescribed, but left open. These modifications seem to make the cell mapping method more efficient for analyzing feedback systems and for obtaining their global optimal control information. The algorithms presented in this paper could broaden the application of the cell mapping approach of Ref. 1 to a wider class of engineering problems.     

A MODEL OF TROPICAL MARINE RESERVE‐FISHERY LINKAGES

ABSTRACT. The excessive and unsustainable exploitation of our marine resources has led to the promotion of marine reserves as a fisheries management tool. Marine reserves, areas in which fishing is restricted or prohibited, can offer opportunities for the recovery of exploited stock and fishery enhancement. In this paper we examine the contribution of fully protected tropical marine reserves to fishery enhancement by modeling marine reserve‐fishery linkages. The consequences of reserve establishment on the long‐run equilibrium fish biomass and fishery catch levels are evaluated. In contrast to earlier models this study highlights the roles of both adult (and juvenile) fish migration and larval dispersal between the reserve and fishing grounds by employing a spawner‐recruit model. Uniform larval dispersal, uniform larval retention and complete larval retention combined with zero, moderate and high fish migration scenarios are analyzed in turn. The numerical simulations are based on Mombasa Marine National Park, Kenya, a fully protected coral reef marine reserve comprising approximately 30% of former fishing grounds. Simulation results suggest that the establishment of a fully protected marine reserve will always lead to an increase in total fish biomass. If the fishery is moderately to heavily exploited, total fishery catch will be greater with the reserve in all scenarios of fish and larval movement. If the fishery faces low levels of exploitation, catches can be optimized without a reserve but with controlled fishing effort. With high fish migration from the reserve, catches are optimized with the reserve. The optimal area of the marine reserve depends on the exploitation rate in the neighboring fishing grounds. For example, if exploitation is maintained at 40%, the ‘optimal’ reserve size would be 10%. If the rate increases to 50%, then the reserve needs to be 30% of the management area in order to maximize catches. However, even in lower exploitation fisheries (below 40%), a small reserve (up to 20%) provides significantly higher gains in fish biomass than losses in catch. Marine reserves are a valuable fisheries management tool. To achieve maximum fishery benefits they should be complemented by fishing effort controls.     

Some new results on superimposed codes

A (w,r) cover‐free family is a family of subsets of a finite set such that no intersection of w members of the family is covered by a union of r others. A (w,r) superimposed code is the incidence matrix of such a family. Such a family also arises in cryptography as the concept of key distribution pattern. In the present paper, we give some new results on superimposed codes. First we construct superimposed codes from super‐simple designs which give us results better than superimposed codes constructed by other known methods. Next we prove the uniqueness of the (1,2) superimposed code of size 9 × 12, the (2,2) superimposed code of size 14 × 8, and the (2,3) superimposed code of size 30 × 10. Finally, we improve numerical values of upper bounds for the asymptotic rate of some (w,r) superimposed codes. © 2004 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

Estimation in the continuous time mover‐stayer model with an application to bond ratings migration

The usual tool for modelling bond ratings migration is a discrete, time‐homogeneous Markov chain. Such model assumes that all bonds are homogeneous with respect to their movement behaviour among rating categories and that the movement behaviour does not change over time. However, among recognized sources of heterogeneity in ratings migration is age of a bond (time elapsed since issuance). It has been observed that young bonds have a lower propensity to change ratings, and thus to default, than more seasoned bonds. The aim of this paper is to introduce a continuous, time‐non‐homogeneous model for bond ratings migration, which also incorporates a simple form of population heterogeneity. The specific form of heterogeneity postulated by the proposed model appears to be suitable for modelling the effect of age of a bond on its propensity to change ratings. This model, called a mover–stayer model, is an extension of a Markov chain. This paper derives the maximum likelihood estimators for the parameters of a continuous time mover–stayer model based on a sample of independent continuously monitored histories of the process, and develops the likelihood ratio statistic for discriminating between the Markov chain and the mover–stayer model. The methods are illustrated using a sample of rating histories of young corporate issuers. For these issuers the default probabilities predicted by the Markov chain and mover–stayer models are different. In particular for 1–4 years old bonds the mover–stayer model estimates substantially lower default probabilities from rating C than a Markov chain. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

两个安全第一思想模型的比较分析

针对投资者可能的投资需求确立了基于安全第一思想下两个相近的投资目标:1、极大化投资末期总收益率超过给定水平α的概率;2、极小化投资末期总收益率与给定水平α的距离.并分别就这两个目标建立了优化决策模型,得到了模型解析解,最后对两个模型结果进行了比较分析和经济解释.