On effectiveness of wiretap programs in mapping social networks

Snowball sampling methods are known to be a biased toward highly connected actors and consequently produce core-periphery networks when these may not necessarily be present. This leads to a biased perception of the underlying network which can have negative policy consequences, as in the identification of terrorist networks. When snowball sampling is used, the potential overload of the information collection system is a distinct problem due to the exponential growth of the number of suspects to be monitored. In this paper, we focus on evaluating the effectiveness of a wiretapping program in terms of its ability to map the rapidly evolving networks within a covert organization. By running a series of simulation-based experiments, we are able to evaluate a broad spectrum of information gathering regimes based on a consistent set of criteria. We conclude by proposing a set of information gathering programs that achieve higher effectiveness then snowball sampling, and at a lower cost. Maksim Tsvetovat is an Assistant Professor at the Center for Social Complexity and department of Public and International Affairs at George Mason University, Fairfax, VA. He received his Ph.D. from the Computation, Organizations and Society program in the School of Computer Science, Carnegie Mellon University. His dissertation was centered on use of artificial intelligence techniques such as planning and semantic reasoning as a means of studying behavior and evolution of complex social networks, such as these of terrorist organizations. He received a Master of Science degree from University of Minnesota with a specialization in Artificial Intelligence and design of Multi-Agent Systems, and has also extensively studied organization theory and social science research methods. His research is centered on building high-fidelity simulations of social and organizational systems using concepts from distributed artificial intelligence and multi-agent systems. Other projects focus on social network analysis for mapping of internal corporate networks or study of covert and terrorist orgnaizations. Maksim’s vita and publications can be found on Kathleen M. Carley is a professor in the School of Computer Science at Carnegie Mellon University and the director of the center for Compuational Analysis of Social and Organizational Systems (CASOS) which has over 25 members, both students and research staff. Her research combines cognitive science, social networks and computer science to address complex social and organizational problems. Her specific research areas are dynamic network analysis, computational social and organization theory, adaptation and evolution, text mining, and the impact of telecommunication technologies and policy on communication, information diffusion, disease contagion and response within and among groups particularly in disaster or crisis situations. She and her lab have developed infrastructure tools for analyzing large scale dynamic networks and various multi-agent simulation systems. The infrastructure tools include ORA, a statistical toolkit for analyzing and visualizing multi-dimensional networks. ORA results are organized into reports that meet various needs such as the management report, the mental model report, and the intelligence report. Another tool is AutoMap, a text-mining systems for extracting semantic networks from texts and then cross-classifying them using an organizational ontology into the underlying social, knowledge, resource and task networks. Her simulation models meld multi-agent technology with network dynamics and empirical data. Three of the large-scale multi-agent network models she and the CASOS group have developed in the counter-terrorism area are: BioWar a city-scale dynamic-network agent-based model for understanding the spread of disease and illness due to natural epidemics, chemical spills, and weaponized biological attacks; DyNet a model of the change in covert networks, naturally and in response to attacks, under varying levels of information uncertainty; and RTE a model for examining state failure and the escalation of conflict at the city, state, nation, and international as changes occur within and among red, blue, and green forces. She is the founding co-editor with Al. Wallace of the journal Computational Organization Theory and has co-edited several books and written over 100 articles in the computational organizations and dynamic network area. Her publications can be found at: http://www.casos.cs.cmu.edu/bios/carley/publications.php     

带惩罚项与随机输入的BP神经网络在线梯度学习算法的收敛性

本文对三层BP神经网络中带有惩罚项的在线梯度学习算法的收敛性问题进行了研究,在网络训练每一轮开始执行之前,对训练样本随机进行重排,以使网络学习更容易跳出局部极小,文中给出了误差函数的单调性定理以及该算法的弱收敛和强收敛性定理。     

基于进化人工神经网络的组合系统滤波技术

在组合系统运用Kalman滤波器技术时,准确的系统模型和可靠的观测数据是保证其性能的重要因素,否则将大大降低Kalman滤波器的估计精度,甚至导致滤波器发散.为解决上述Kalman应用中的实际问题,提出了一种新颖的基于进化人工神经网络技术的自适应Kalman滤波器.仿真试验表明该算法可以在系统模型不准确时、甚至外部观测数据短暂中断时,仍能保证Kalman滤波器的性能.     

农户信用评估系统的设计与运用研究

农户信用评估的研究对推动农村消费信用的发展，促进农村经济良好运行十分重要。本在构造农户信用评估的指标体系的基础上，提出了农户信用评估神经网络模型的算法，利用实际搜集到的农户资料进一步建立了农户信用评估模型，继而构造了农户信用评估系统，并举例说明了该系统的实际运用，以期能为农村经济发展中的农户信用评价及相关研究提供一丝基础性启发。     

Survivability in IP-over-WDM Networks: WDM Lightpath Protection versus IP LSP Protection

This article compares the performance of WDM lightpath protection and IP LSP protection schemes for IP-over-WDM networks. A mathematical formulation of the maximum throughput problem is presented and analytical expressions for recovery time are derived for both schemes. The throughputs and recovery times are analyzed and compared. Results show that the IP LSP protection scheme presents higher throughputs then WDM lightpath protection. The IP LSP protection scheme, providing individual IP LSP protection has, however, scalability problems. This scheme presents high recovery times when a failure affects many lightpaths and many hops are allowed for the primary routes of IP LSPs.     

基于径向基函数神经网络的Lorenz混沌系统滑模控制

针对受参数不确定和外扰影响的混沌Lorenz系统，提出一种基于径向基函数（RBF）神经网 络的滑模控制方法.基于被控系统在不稳定平衡点处状态误差的可控规范形，设计滑模切换 面并将其作为神经网络的唯一输入.单入单出形式的RBF控制器隐层只需7个径向基函数，网 络的权值则依滑模趋近条件在线确定.仿真表明该控制器对系统参数突变和外部干扰具有鲁棒性，同时抑制了抖振. 关键词： 混沌控制 滑模 径向基函数神经网络 Lorenz系统     

On the Existence of Solutions to Vector Quasivariational Inequalities and Quasicomplementarity Problems with Applications Break to Traffic Network Equilibria

For vector quasivariational inequalities involving multifunctions in topological vector spaces, an existence result is obtained without a monotonicity assumption and with a convergence assumption weaker than semicontinuity. A new type of quasivariational inequality is proposed. Applications to quasicomplementarity problems and traffic network equilibria are considered. In particular, definitions of weak and strong Wardrop equilibria are introduced for the case of multivalued cost functions.     

The Downs-Thomson Paradox: Existence, Uniqueness and Stability of User Equilibria

Consider a network where two routes are available for users wishing to travel from a source to a destination. On one route (which could be viewed as private transport) service slows as traffic increases. On the other (which could be viewed as public transport) the service frequency increases with demand. The Downs-Thomson paradox occurs when improvements in service produce an overall decline in performance as user equilibria adjust. Using the model proposed by Calvert [10], with a ⋅|M|1 queue corresponding to the private transport route, and a bulk-service infinite server queue modelling the public transport route, we give a complete analysis of this system in the setting of probabilistic routing. We obtain the user equilibria (which are not always unique), and determine their stability.AMS subject classification: 60K30, 90B15, 90B20, 91A10, 91A13This revised version was published online in June 2005 with corrected coverdate     

Parallel Algorithm for Unconstrained Optimization Based on Decomposition Techniques

We present a numerical implementation of the parallel gradient distribution (PGD) method for the solution of large-scale unconstrained optimization problems. The proposed parallel algorithm is characterized by a parallel phase which exploits the portions of the gradient of the objective function assigned to each processor; then, a coordination phase follows which, by a synchronous interaction scheme, optimizes over the partial results obtained by the parallel phase. The parallel and coordination phases are implemented using a quasi-Newton limited-memory BFGS approach. The computational experiments, carried out on a network of UNIX workstations by using the parallel software tool PVM, show that parallelization efficiency was problem dependent and ranged between 0.15 and 8.75. For the 150 problems solved by PGD on more than one processor, 85 cases had parallelization efficiency below 1, while 65 cases had a parallelization efficiency above 1.     

神经网络法计算镉（Ⅱ）,羟基及碳酸根三元体系的形态分布

采用前馈线笥网络ＢＰ算法，计算了Ｃｄ６２＋－ＯＨ＾－ＣＯ＾２－３三元体系的累积稳定常数。用Ｈｏｐｆｉｅｌｄ反馈网络研究了体系中络合物的形态分布。溶液中溶解的ＣＯ２对ｌｇβ１的计算结果有重要影响，对ｌｇβ２，ｌｇβ３，ｌｇβ４的结果影响不大。