GENERAL MINIMAX ESTIMATORS ON THE LOCATION MATRIX OF A MIXTURE OF NORMALS

This paper considers the estimate problem on the mean matrix of mixtureof normals. In order to evaluate estimators of the mean matrix, a fundamental frameof Ф-(general) decision problem is established. Under the frame, a class of Ф-minimax estimators are constructed.     

Global Priority Estimation in Multiperson Decision Making

The analytic hierarchy process generalized to synthesizing local preferences across a complex hierarchy structure into global priorities in multiperson decision making is considered in various approaches. They include classic eigenvector synthesis and multiplicative method, and several other suggested techniques, such as three-dimensional eigenvectors, and simultaneous linear and nonlinear estimations by whole hierarchy structure in synthetic optimizing procedures. A numerical example from marketing research with many criteria, subcriteria, alternatives, and respondents is presented. The quality of approximation compared by different approaches shows that the best results are produced by the nonlinear synthetic priority techniques. The techniques described have been successfully used in dozens of real-world projects and are very helpful for practical managerial decision making in complex hierarchies. Dr. Stan Lipovetsky is Senior Research Director, GfK Custom Research North America, Marketing Science, Research Center for Excellence. The author thanks Professor T. Rapcsak and two reviewers for insightful suggestions that improved the paper.     

基于多目标影响图效果作战模型

针对目前基于效果作战评估中没有涉及多目标以及决策者的偏好的情况,将多目标影响图引入到基于效果作战模型.首先分析了基于效果作战中各主要要素之间关系,其次提出了基于效果作战模型构造过程,然后将其与多目标决策理论结合建立了多目标基于效果作战模型,用多目标影响图对其进行建模,并给出了求解方法,最后将基于多目标影响图效果作战模型应用于空战任务分配中.仿真结果表明该模型的有效性.     

平面多项式系统及其相伴系统

引进平面多项式系统的相伴系统的概念 ,分析了多项式系统与其相伴系统之间在极限环不存在性 ,唯一性 ,中心焦点的判定等问题上的相似之处和不同之处 ,提出了几个公开问题 .     

组合DEA方法与成熟度模型对项目效益的评价

为全面考虑资金、管理决策能力等因素对项目效益的影响，本运用数据包络分析与项目成熟度模型结合的方法来对企业各个项目之间的相对效益进行评价，应用结果表明该评价方法对于企业资源的最优配置、提高总体效益是十分有用的。     

一种故障树分析的新算法

本论文中，首先引入了ＢＤＤ（ＢｒｉｎａｒｙＤｅｃｉｓｉｏｎＤｉａｇｒａｍｓ－ＢＤＤ）的概念，介绍由故障树到ＢＤＤ转化算法一递归法，及ＢＤＤ进行故障树分析的方法。     

Strategic control and interests,its effects on decision outcomes

Application of the model to artificial data shows that actors with strong preferences in the center have more possibilities to realize good outcomes than other actors. On the basis of an empirical application it is shown that a Nash equilibrium does not always arise after a large number of iterations unless actors have learning capabilities or are severely restricted in their strategic behavior.

In political systems and large organizations, ultimate decision makers are usually just a small subset of all actors in the social system. To arrive at acceptable decisions, decision makers have to take into account the preferences of other actors in the system. Typically preferences of more interested and more powerful actors are weighted heavier than those of less interested and powerful actors. This implies that the total leverage of an actor on the decision is determined by the combination of his power (his potential) and his interest (his willingness to mobilize his power). As the exact level of an actor's leverage is difficult to estimate for the other actors in the system, an actor is able to optimize his effects on outcomes of decisions by providing strategic informatioa

In this paper, first an analytic solution is presented for the optimization of strategic leverage in collective decision making by one single actor. In this solution, the actor makes assumptions about the leverage other actors will show in decision making. Subsequently, the actor optimizes the outcomes of decisions by manipulating the distribution of his leverage over a set of issues.

The analytic solution can be theoretically interpreted by decomposing the solution into three terms, the expected external leverage of the other actors on the issue, the evaluation of the deviance of the expected from the preferred outcome of the issue, and the restrictions on the distribution of leverage over the issues. The higher the expectation of the leverages the other actors will allocate to the issue, the less an actor is inclined to allocate leverage to the issue. The higher the evaluation of the deviance, the more an actor is inclined to allocate leverage to the issue. This is restricted, however, by the required distribution of leverages over the issues. The researcher is able to manipulate these restrictions to investigate its consequences for the outcomes.

In the next step, we investigate whether we can find a Nash equilibrium if all actors optimize their leverage simultaneously. Under certain conditions, a Nash equilibrium can be found by an iterative process in which actors update their estimates oh each other's leverages on the basis of what the other actors have shown in previous iterations.     

群体多目标决策联合有效解类的不变凸充分条件

对于群体多目标决策问题，文[1]引进它的联合有效解类的概念，并给出这类解的最优性必要条件，在对于问题的目标函数和约束函数附加凸性的条件下，文[2]又给出了联合有效解类的最优性充分条件，本文进一步在目标函数和约束函数具不变凸和不变广义 凸的情况下，分别给出了联合有效解类的若干最优性充分条件。     

On the Evaluation of Uncertain Courses of Action

We consider the problem of decision making under uncertainty. The fuzzy measure is introduced as a general way of representing available information about the uncertainty. It is noted that generally in uncertain environments the problem of comparing alternative courses of action is difficult because of the multiplicity of possible outcomes for any action. One approach is to convert this multiplicity of possible of outcomes associated with an alternative into a single value using a valuation function. We describe various ways of providing a valuation function when the uncertainty is represented using a fuzzy measure. We then specialize these valuation functions to the cases of probabilistic and possibilistic uncertainty.     

Multicriteria decision making under uncertainty

Formalization for problems of multicriteria decision making under uncertainty is constructed in terms of guaranteed and weak estimates. A relevant definition of the vector maximinimax value is given. Parameterization and approximation of maximum, minimax, and maximinimax values based on the inverse logical convolution are suggested. An application for multicommodity networks is considered. Received: December 13, 2000 / Accepted: August 21, 2001?Published online May 8, 2002