A flexible framework for Group Decision Support: WINGDSS version 3.0

A flexible framework for Group Decision Support on PCs in Microsoft Windows environment is presented. WINGDSS does not replace human judgment but highly supports the entire process of decision making, from problem structuring to post-decision analysis. The latest version of WINGDSS is a modular, open system with a dynamical connection to relational databases, an interpreter for defining problem specific evaluation procedures, a lot of interactive features from setting up the tree of criteria until the sensitivity analysis on individual/group ranking. By providing tools for recursively redefining the decision problem, WINGDSS helps the decision makers in achieving a result satisfactory to the whole group.Research supported in part by the Hungarian Foundation for Scientific Research, Grant No. 2568 and by the Hungarian National Committee for Technical Research and Development, Grant No. 93-97-67-0553.     

Optimization of a highway project planning using a modified genetic algorithm

This paper proposes an optimization method for a national-level highway project planning based on a modified genetic algorithm. The proposed method adds to the existing methods by integrating various planning elements into a single system. A simulation model is used in order to determine the best investment strategy with regard to net present value, time deviation from the initial plan and discrepancy between available resources and investment costs by taking into account economical, social, traffic and political factors. The outcome is a project schedule with an optimized cash flow. The proposed method was tested using the example of the National Highway Programme in Slovenia.     

Nonparametric estimation and adaptive control in a class of finite Markov decision chains

We consider a class of Markov decision processes withfinite state and action spaces which, essentially, is determined by the following condition: The state space isirreducible under the action of any stationary policy. However, except by this restriction, the transition law iscompletely unknown to the controller. In this context, we find a set of policies under which thefrequency estimators of the transition law are strongly consistent and then, this result is applied to constructadaptive asymptotically discount-optimal policies.Dedicated to Professor Truman O. Lewis, on the occasion of his sixtieth birthdayThis research was supported in part by the Third World Academy of Sciences (TWAS) under Grant TWAS RG MP 898-152, and in part by the Consejo Nacional de Ciencia y Tecnología (CONACYT) under Grant A128CCOEO550 (MT-2).     

Supply chain scheduling: Just-in-time environment

We study the benefits of coordinated decision making in a supply chain consisting of a manufacturer, a distributor, and several retailers. The distributor bundles finished goods produced by the manufacturer and delivers them to the retailers to meet their demands. The distributor is responsible for managing finished goods inventory. An optimal production schedule of the manufacturer, if imposed on the distributor, may result in an increased inventory holding cost for the distributor. On the other hand, an optimal distribution schedule of the distributor, if imposed on the manufacturer, may result in an increased production cost for the manufacturer. In this paper we develop mathematical models for individual optimization goals of the two partners and compare the results of these models with the results obtained for a joint optimization model at the system level. We investigate the computational complexities of these scheduling problems. The experimental results indicate that substantial cost savings can be achieved at the system level by joint optimization. We also study conflict and cooperation issues in the supply chain. The cost of conflict of a supply chain partner is a measure of the amount by which the unconstrained optimal cost increases when a decision is to be made under the scheduling constraint imposed by the other partner. We quantify these conflicts and show that the cost of conflicts are significant. We also show that a cooperative decision will generate a positive surplus in the system which can be shared by the two partners to make cooperation and coordination strategy more attractive.     

An attribute weight based feedback model for multiple attributive group decision analysis problems with group consensus requirements in evidential reasoning context

In an evidential reasoning context, a group consensus (GC) based approach can model multiple attributive group decision analysis problems with GC requirements. The predefined GC is reached through several rounds of group analysis and discussion (GAD) in the approach. However, the GAD with no guidance may not be the most appropriate way to reach the predefined GC because several rounds of GAD will spend a lot of time of all experts and yet cannot help them to effectively emphasize on the assessments which primarily damage the GC. In this paper, an attribute weight based feedback model is constructed to effectively identify the assessments primarily damaging the GC and accelerate the GC convergence. Considering important attributes with the weights more than or at least equal to the mean of the weights of all attributes, the feedback model constructs identification rules to identify the assessments damaging the GC for the experts to renew. In addition, a suggestion rule is introduced to generate appropriate recommendations for the experts to renew their identified assessments. The identification rules are constructed at three levels including the attribute, alternative and global levels. The feedback model is used to solve an engineering project management software selection problem to demonstrate its detailed implementation process, its validity and applicability, and its advantages compared with the GC based approach.     

Product design and selection using fuzzy QFD and fuzzy MCDM approaches

Quality function deployment (QFD) is a useful analyzing tool in product design and development. To solve the uncertainty or imprecision in QFD, numerous researchers have applied the fuzzy set theory to QFD and developed various fuzzy QFD models. Three issues are investigated by examining their models. First, the extant studies focused on identifying important engineering characteristics and seldom explored the subsequent prototype product selection issue. Secondly, the previous studies usually use fuzzy number algebraic operations to calculate the fuzzy sets in QFD. This approach may cause a great deviation in the result from the correct value. Thirdly, few studies have paid attention to the competitive analysis in QFD. However, it can provide product developers with a large amount of valuable information. Aimed at these three issues, this study integrates fuzzy QFD and the prototype product selection model to develop a product design and selection (PDS) approach. In fuzzy QFD, the α-cut operation is adopted to calculate the fuzzy set of each component. Competitive analysis and the correlations among engineering characteristics are also considered. In prototype product selection, engineering characteristics and the factors involved in product development are considered. A fuzzy multi-criteria decision making (MCDM) approach is proposed to select the best prototype product. A case study is given to illustrate the research steps for the proposed PDS method. The proposed method provides product developers with more useful information and precise analysis results. Thus, the PDS method can serve as a helpful decision-aid tool in product design.     

搜索引擎定量评价模型研究

搜索引擎性能的评价一般采用定性或定量的方法,在确定搜索引擎评价指标体系的基础上,本文利用模糊多属性决策研究了搜索引擎定量评价问题,为定量评价搜索引擎提供了一种途径.     

Some interval-valued intuitionistic uncertain linguistic Choquet operators and their application to multi-attribute group decision making

In this study a generated admissible order between interval-valued intuitionistic uncertain linguistic numbers using two continuous functions is introduced. Then, two interval-valued intuitionistic uncertain linguistic operators called the interval-valued intuitionistic uncertain linguistic Choquet averaging (IVIULCA) operator and the interval-valued intuitionistic uncertain linguistic Choquet geometric mean (IVIULCGM) operator are defined, which consider the interactive characteristics among elements in a set. In order to overall reflect the correlations between them, we further define the generalized Shapley interval-valued intuitionistic uncertain linguistic Choquet averaging (GS-IVIULCA) operator and the generalized Shapley interval-valued intuitionistic uncertain linguistic Choquet geometric mean (GS-IVIULCGM) operator. Moreover, if the information about the weights of experts and attributes is incompletely known, the models for the optimal fuzzy measures on expert set and attribute set are established, respectively. Finally, a method to multi-attribute group decision making under interval-valued intuitionistic uncertain linguistic environment is developed, and an example is provided to show the specific application of the developed procedure.     

基于CVaR准则的折扣回购策略双层风险决策

首先,引入条件风险值(CVaR)准则,作为风险厌恶型的供应商和零售商的决策准则,建立了基于条件风险值(CVaR)准则的折扣回购策略双层风险决策模型.然后,导出了零售商在批发价格下的最优订购公式,证明了订购量随着折扣增大而增大,随着批发价格增大而减小,数值实验表明供应商可以通过折扣和批发价来分担零售商的风险损失,来使供应链达到协调.