Stochastic analysis in life office management: applications to large annuity portfolios

The paper deals with the riskiness analysis for a large portfolio of life annuities. By means of the limiting distribution of the present value of the portfolio, in the first part of the paper a model for evaluating the investment and the projection risks is presented. In the second part, with regard to the investment risk's effects, the insolvency risk is measured considering the cumulative probability distribution function of the discounted average cost per policy. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A risk model driven by Lévy processes

We present a general risk model where the aggregate claims, as well as the premium function, evolve by jumps. This is achieved by incorporating a Lévy process into the model. This seeks to account for the discrete nature of claims and asset prices. We give several explicit examples of Lévy processes that can be used to drive a risk model. This allows us to incorporate aggregate claims and premium fluctuations in the same process. We discuss important features of such processes and their relevance to risk modeling. We also extend classical results on ruin probabilities to this model. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Nonparametric Estimation of Regression Functions in Point Process Models

We prove that the empirical L ²-risk minimizing estimator over some general type of sieve classes is universally, strongly consistent for the regression function in a class of point process models of Poissonian type (random sampling processes). The universal consistency result needs weak assumptions on the underlying distributions and regression functions. It applies in particular to neural net classes and to radial basis function nets. For the estimation of the intensity functions of a Poisson process a similar technique yields consistency of the sieved maximum likelihood estimator for some general sieve classes. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Nonlinear Filtering for Diffusions in Random Environments

Suppose that the signal X to be estimated is a diffusion process in a random medium W and the signal is correlated with the observation noise. We study the historical filtering problem concerned with estimating the signal path up until the current time based upon the back observations. Using Dirichlet form theory, we introduce a filtering model for general rough signal X ^W and establish a multiple Wiener integrals representation for the unnormalized pathspace filtering process. Then, we construct a precise nonlinear filtering model for the process X itself and give the corresponding Wiener chaos decomposition.     

On Uniform Laws of Large Numbers for Ergodic Diffusions and Consistency of Estimators

Consider a regular diffusion process X with finite speed measure m. Denote the normalized speed measure by μ. We prove that the uniform law of large numbers holds if the class has an envelope function that is μ-integrable, or if is bounded in L _p(μ) for some p>1. In contrast with uniform laws of large numbers for i.i.d. random variables, we do not need conditions on the ‘size’ of the class in terms of bracketing or covering numbers. The result is a consequence of a number of asymptotic properties of diffusion local time that we derive. We apply our abstract results to improve consistency results for the local time estimator (LTE) and to prove consistency for a class of simple M-estimators. This revised version was published online in June 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

A Diffusion Approximation for a Markovian Queue with Reneging

Consider a single-server queue with a Poisson arrival process and exponential processing times in which each customer independently reneges after an exponentially distributed amount of time. We establish that this system can be approximated by either a reflected Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process or a reflected affine diffusion when the arrival rate exceeds or is close to the processing rate and the reneging rate is close to 0. We further compare the quality of the steady-state distribution approximations suggested by each diffusion.     

Stability Conditions of the MMAP [ K ]/ G [ K ]/1/ LCFS Preemptive Repeat Queue

In this paper, we study the stability conditions of the MMAP[K]/G[K]/1/LCFS preemptive repeat queue. We introduce an embedded Markov chain of matrix M/G/1 type with a tree structure and identify conditions for the Markov chain to be ergodic. First, we present three conventional methods for the stability problem of the queueing system of interest. These methods are either computationally demanding or do not provide accurate information for system stability. Then we introduce a novel approach that develops two linear programs whose solutions provide sufficient conditions for stability or instability of the queueing system. The new approach is numerically efficient. The advantages and disadvantages of the methods introduced in this paper are analyzed both theoretically and numerically.     

HILBERTIAN INVARIANCE PRINCIPLE FOR EMPIRICAL PROCESS ASSOCIATED WITH A MARKOV PROCESS

The authors establish the Hilbertian invariance principle for the empirical process of a stationary Markov process, by extending the forward-backward martingale decomposition of Lyons-Meyer-Zheng to the Hilbert space valued additive functionals associated with general non-reversible Markov processes.     

REPRESENTATION OF ADDITIVE FUNCTIONALS AND LOCAL TIMES FOR JUMP MARKOV PROCESSES AND THEIR FUNCTIONAL LIMIT THEOREM

The representation of additive functionals and local times for jump Markov processes are obtained,The results of uniformly functional moderate deviation and their applications to birth-death processes are also presented.     

LINEAR SEARCH FOR A BROWNIAN TARGET MOTION

A target is assumed to move according to a Brownian motion on the real line. The searcher starts from the origin and moves in the two directions from the starting point.The object is to detect the target. The purpose of this paper is to find the conditions under which the expected value of the first meeting time of the searcher and the target is finite,and to show the existence of a search plan which made this expected value minimum.