Estimation in the continuous time mover‐stayer model with an application to bond ratings migration

The usual tool for modelling bond ratings migration is a discrete, time‐homogeneous Markov chain. Such model assumes that all bonds are homogeneous with respect to their movement behaviour among rating categories and that the movement behaviour does not change over time. However, among recognized sources of heterogeneity in ratings migration is age of a bond (time elapsed since issuance). It has been observed that young bonds have a lower propensity to change ratings, and thus to default, than more seasoned bonds. The aim of this paper is to introduce a continuous, time‐non‐homogeneous model for bond ratings migration, which also incorporates a simple form of population heterogeneity. The specific form of heterogeneity postulated by the proposed model appears to be suitable for modelling the effect of age of a bond on its propensity to change ratings. This model, called a mover–stayer model, is an extension of a Markov chain. This paper derives the maximum likelihood estimators for the parameters of a continuous time mover–stayer model based on a sample of independent continuously monitored histories of the process, and develops the likelihood ratio statistic for discriminating between the Markov chain and the mover–stayer model. The methods are illustrated using a sample of rating histories of young corporate issuers. For these issuers the default probabilities predicted by the Markov chain and mover–stayer models are different. In particular for 1–4 years old bonds the mover–stayer model estimates substantially lower default probabilities from rating C than a Markov chain. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

用于机械振动实时监测的光纤光栅有源传感装置

把一对中心反射波长分别为1562.11nm和1562.71nm的光纤光栅粘贴在均质、等厚、等腰三角形悬臂梁上下表面作为环形腔光纤激光器端镜，当机械振动激励自由端时，通过观测激光输出脉冲，地施加于自由端的机械振动的频率进行了实时监测；观察两光栅波长漂移量差值的变化，可在0～6.1mm的范围内判断所测振动的振幅。低于100Hz时，实验结果与实际值基本吻合。     

束晕-混沌的复杂性理论与控制方法及其应用前景

本文系统论述涉及强流加速器等强流离子束装置中产生的束晕-混沌的复杂性理论与控制方法及其应用前景。强流离子束在核材料生产与增殖、洁净核能、放射性废物嬗变、放射性药物生产、重离子聚变、高能物理、核科学与工程、国防与民用工业和医疗等许多方面都有极其重要的应用潜力和诱人的发展前景。尤其是，近年来强流加速器驱动的放射性洁净核能系统是国内外关注的热门课题，因为它比常规核电更安全、更干净、更便宜。但是，强流离子束形成的束晕-混沌的复杂性现象已引起了国内外广泛关注，需要加以抑制、控制和消除这类现象，解决这一难题已经成为强流离子束应用中的关键问题之一。目前不仅必须深入研究这类束晕-混沌的复杂特性及其产生的物理机制，而且需要研究如何实现对束晕-混沌的有效控制，并寻求和发展其新理论、新方法和新技术。这就向强流离子束物理和非线性-复杂性科学及其技术提出了一系列极富挑战性的新课题。本文结合国内外的研究概况，根据我们多年来的研究成果，特别是我们首创性地提出了一些束晕-混沌的有效控制方法，它们包括：非线性反馈控制法，小波反馈控制法，变结构控制法，延迟反馈控制法，参数自适应控制法等，进行重点的介绍。对上述课题当前的主要进展及相关问题进行系统的总结和比较全面综述的评论。最后，指出该领域今后的研究方向，以推动这个崭新领域的深入研究和应用发展。     

Analytical Study of Nonlinear Dust Acoustic Waves in Two-Dimensional Dust Plasma with Dust Charge Variation

The nonlinear dust acoustic waves in two-dimensional dust plasma with dust charge variation is analytically investigated by using the formally variable separation approach. New analytical solutions for the governing equation of this system have been obtained for dust acoustic waves in a dust plasma for the first time. We derive exact analytical expressions for the general case of the nonlinear dust acoustic waves in two-dimensional dust plasma with dust charge variation.     

Three-Step Predictor-Corrector of Exponential Fitting Method for Nonlinear Schroedinger Equations

We develop the three-step explicit and implicit schemes of exponential fitting methods. We use the three- step explicit exponential fitting scheme to predict an approximation, then use the three-step implicit exponential fitting scheme to correct this prediction. This combination is called the three-step predictor-corrector of exponential fitting method. The three-step predictor-corrector of exponential fitting method is applied to numerically compute the coupled nonlinear Schroedinger equation and the nonlinear Schroedinger equation with varying coefficients. The numerical results show that the scheme is highly accurate.     

凹整数规划的分枝定界解法

凹整数规划是一类重要的非线性整数规划问题，也是在经济和管理中有着广泛应用的最优化问题．本文主要研究用分枝定界方法求解凹整数规划问题，这一方法的基本思想是对目标函数进行线性下逼近，然后用乘子搜索法求解连续松弛问题．数值结果表明，用这种分枝定界方法求解凹整数规划是有效的．     

连续激光诱导Zn/InP掺杂过程中温度分布的解析计算

在实验的基础上，分析表面蒸发Zn的InP样品在连续激光诱导下掺杂Zn过程.在一维热传导问题的第三类边界条件下，给出激光辐照有限厚双层材料Zn/InP温度分布的一种直观简洁的解析形式. 关键词： 激光诱导掺杂 Zn/InP 温度分布     

Transport of Neutrally Buoyant and Dense Variably Sized Colloids in a Two-Dimensional Fracture with Anisotropic Aperture

The transport of monodisperse as well as polydisperse colloid suspensions in a two-dimensional, water saturated fracture with spatially variable and anisotropic aperture is investigated with a particle tracking model. Both neutrally buoyant and dense colloid suspensions are considered. Although flow and transport in fractured subsurface formations have been studied extensively by numerous investigators, the transport of dense, polydisperse colloid suspensions in a fracture with spatially variable and anisotropic aperture has not been previously explored. Simulated snapshots and breakthrough curves of ensemble averages of several realizations of a log-normally distributed aperture field show that polydisperse colloids exhibit greater spreading than monodisperse colloids, and dense colloids show greater retardation than neutrally buoyant colloids. Moreover, it is demonstrated that aperture anisotropy oriented along the flow direction substantially increases colloid spreading; whereas, aperture anisotropy oriented transverse to the flow direction retards colloid movement.     

On Bayes and unbiased estimators of loss

We consider estimation of loss for generalized Bayes or pseudo-Bayes estimators of a multivariate normal mean vector, θ. In 3 and higher dimensions, the MLEX is UMVUE and minimax but is inadmissible. It is dominated by the James-Stein estimator and by many others. Johnstone (1988, On inadmissibility of some unbiased estimates of loss,Statistical Decision Theory and Related Topics, IV (eds. S. S. Gupta and J. O. Berger), Vol. 1, 361–379, Springer, New York) considered the estimation of loss for the usual estimatorX and the James-Stein estimator. He found improvements over the Stein unbiased estimator of risk. In this paper, for a generalized Bayes point estimator of θ, we compare generalized Bayes estimators to unbiased estimators of loss. We find, somewhat surprisingly, that the unbiased estimator often dominates the corresponding generalized Bayes estimator of loss for priors which give minimax estimators in the original point estimation problem. In particular, we give a class of priors for which the generalized Bayes estimator of θ is admissible and minimax but for which the unbiased estimator of loss dominates the generalized Bayes estimator of loss. We also give a general inadmissibility result for a generalized Bayes estimator of loss. Research supported by NSF Grant DMS-97-04524.     

基因组重排问题的一个近似算法

分子生物学中基因无方向的反向基因组重排问题在数学上已被证明是一个NP困难问题．基于断点图的概念，给出一个时间复杂性为O(max{b^(π)，nb(π)})，空间复杂性为0(n)的求其近似最优解的算法．其中n为基因组中基因个数，π=(π1,π2，…，πn)表示n个基因的一种排列，b(π)表示排列π中的断点数．数据实验的结果表明，该近似算法可以求得较好的结果．