相关系数与相关性度量

研究了度量相关性的两个主要工具:线性相关系数和尾部相关系数.线性相关系数反映了变量间的线性相关性,这对于一般的椭圆型分布是合适的.但如果随机变量具有不对称的尾部变化特征时,要用尾部相关系数描述它们之间的相关性.通过相关函数C opu la,对沪深股市的尾部相关系数进行了定量分析.结果表明:沪深股市具有较强的相关性.     

A web-based workforce management system for Sainsburys Supermarkets Ltd

Labour scheduling plays an important and critical role in Sainsburys day to day operations and profitability. The integrated workforce management solution for Sainsburys is an intelligent solution for the operational deployment of human resources, integrated business forecasting, generation and calculation of workload and staff scheduling. The workforce management technology has provided Sainsburys with a fully web-based and centralised system that produces optimised schedules for all employees satisfying the forecasted demand of work with granularity of fifteen minutes. The system is configured to respect all operational and business requirements as well as employee contractual constraints. This paper introduces the workforce management solution system designed, developed and implemented for Sainsburys. We concentrate on two modelling structures, namely the work pattern model and optimisation model, and briefly discuss the optimisation process.     

综合网管中基于模型驱动的元数据管理

提出了一种基于模型驱动的元数据管理方案．方案采用了基于模型的形式化描述方法，统一了专业网管子系统间的元数据模式；通过引入模型驱动技术，从元模型的抽象层次消除了不同专业网管子系统之间存在的“信息孤岛”；方案还对综合网管环境下的元数据理论和交换机制进行了研究，并给出了元数据的管理框架以及元数据交换的Java接口映射．     

Dynamic Nonlinear Modelization of Operational Supply Chain Systems

Supply Chain Management (SCM) is an important activity in all producing facilities and in many organizations to enable vendors, manufacturers and suppliers to interact gainfully and plan optimally their flow of goods and services. To realize this, a dynamic modelling approach for characterizing supply chain activities is opportune, so as to plan efficiently the set of activities over a distributed network in a formal and scientific way. The dynamical system will result so complex that it is not generally possible to specify the functional forms and the parameters of interest, relating outputs to inputs, states and stochastic terms by experiential specification methods. Thus the algorithm that will presented is Data Driven, determining simultaneously the functional forms, the parameters and the optimal control policy from the data available for the supply chain. The aim of this paper is to present this methodology, by considering dynamical aspects of the system, the presence of nonlinear relationships and unbiased estimation procedures to quantify these relations, leading to a nonlinear and stochastic dynamical system representation of the SCM problem. Moreover, the convergence of the algorithm will be proved and the satisfaction of the required statistical conditions demonstrated. Thus SCM problems may be formulated as formal scientific procedures, with well defined algorithms and a precise calculation sequence to determine the best alternative to enact. A “Certainty equivalent principle” will be indicated to ensure that the effects of the inevitable uncertainties will not lead to indeterminate results, allowing the formulation of demonstrably asymptotically optimal management plans.     

一种供应链中的知识管理绩效评价方法研究

作为知识管理的重要组成部分，知识管理绩效评价旨在帮助企业找出影响绩效提高的关键因素并及时采取有效措施，提高知识管理水平。本文从创造顾客价值、知识的获取能力、知识的共享与传播能力、知识的运用水平、知识的存量水平和知识管理平台等六个方面，分析了评价供应链的知识管理绩效应考虑的主要因素，建立了供应链的知识管理绩效评价指标体系，在此基础上，提出了运用D-S证据推理方法，对供应链知识管理绩效进行评价，并给出了证据推理的算法步骤，最后通过算例分析，说明该方法的有效性、实用性。     

动态规划在教学管理中的应用

本将动态规划理论应用于高校教学管理当中，得出了教学管理中重要的环一排课的最优策略。     

AN ENCOMPASSING APPROACH TO MODELING FISHERY DYNAMICS: MODELING DYNAMIC NONLINEAR SYSTEMS

Uncertainty about the nature and significance of nonlinearities and the manner in which dynamics affect future realizations makes model specification the most difficult aspect of modeling dynamic systems. By interpreting several popular fishery models as subcases of a nesting dynamic Taylor series approximation, we isolate the specification differences between these models in a way that accounts for commonalities. On the argument that the differences due to alternative nonlinear forms are likely to be small compared to more mundane considerations such as delay difference and general dynamic lag specification, we propose an alternative model that uses the terms from the first order approximation common to all models combined with a data-based determination of the appropriate lags using the methods of state space time series analysis. Finally, the success of the alternative models is judged in an application to Pacific halibut data.     

PARTIAL VERSUS GENERAL STORAGE POLICY: COMMODITIES AND RESOURCES

This paper examines joint storage considerations when both commodities and resources can be stored, e.g., grain and water for irrigation. Results suggest that when separate agencies control public resource and commodity storage, suboptimal storage rules occur unless (i) each agency is sensitive to the policies of the other, (ii) commodity inventories are adjusted in response to prices, and (iii) resource inventories are adjusted in response to both commodity demand and resource supply conditions. For example, the common case where water storage depends on weather and reservoir conditions alone is not sufficiently general. The results imply that water management agencies that tend to be dominated by engineers and hydrological considerations need to incorporate economic considerations into decision processes.     

An integer goal programming model for hazardous waste treatment and disposal

The improper handling and disposal of hazardous wastes cause threats to human health and the environment. One reason for the improper handling and disposal of these wastes is that not much consideration is usually given to the logistical aspects of hazardous waste systems. In this paper an integer goal programming model is developed that takes into consideration the multiple goals and needs of many groups involved in managing and planning hazardous waste systems. The model can easily be implemented and can be used to address many of the issues related to facility location, recycling, treatment, and disposal of hazardous wastes.     

USING A SYSTEM DYNAMICS APPROACH TO MODEL SUSTAINABILITY INDICATORS FOR IRRIGATION SYSTEMS IN AUSTRALIA

ABSTRACT. An indicator defined as a function of the total water diversion through the Coleambally canal and the potential irrigation demand is selected to represent the sustainability of the irrigation water system in the Coleambally irrigation area, Australia. A simulation procedure using a system dynamics approach was developed to evaluate the indicator. The procedure includes water diversion assessment, potential crop water demand and total gross margin. Three cases of water supply options (surface water, ground water pumping and water trading), two cases of changes in the total agricultural area and three cropping pattern scenarios were simulated to better understand their impact on sustainability. The simulated results indicate that increasing the agricultural area reduces the sustainability of the irrigation system because the demand of water increased despite increase in the gross margin. The scenarios show that imposed water trading and ground water pumping would considerably increase the supply system having a positive impact on the sustainability. The paper concludes that a multi‐objective sustainability indicator taking account of economic and environmental issues could be more useful.