我国粮食生产的技术推进模式及影响机制研究

基于农业生产技术的功能性特征及随机前沿理论,构建可分离柯布-道格拉斯形式生产函数,测算我国粮食生产全要素增长率及其组成成分.实证结果表明,1999-2011年间,小麦、稻谷和玉米作物的全要素增长率普遍较低,其中,前沿技术进步率对全要素增长率具有正的贡献;但技术效率(尤其是M技术效率)在逐年降低,是造成全要素增长率偏低的主要原因.在此基础上,对影响我国粮食生产技术效率变化的因素进行理论分析和实证检验.研究发现,以直接补贴为主的农业财政支出政策对BC和M技术效率提高作用明显,且影响效果最强.粮食生产技术的推广与普及、粮食生产的规模化和专业化对技术效率具有显著正向影响,但市场机制的影响效果并没有显现出来.     

动态联合库存的决策模型及算法

考虑生产商、销售商联合库存的动态优化问题,建立的随机需求下生产-销售运作系统的排队模型,得到了系统的稳态概率分布和队长分布.以成本最小化为目标,模型算法找到了最优的运作策略和机器使用数量.数值模拟的结果表明,依赖于指定机器数量的动态调整策略明显优于静态系统.     

Cooperation between scientists and the government in the US: benefits and problems

This paper discusses the importance of maintaining close working relations between scientists and their government. Several examples of this cooperation in the U.S. are presented to illustrate the benefits, as well as problems, that result from such cooperation, or lack thereof. These examples include government support of scientific research, as well as contributions by science to help governments understand both the possibilities and the limitations of science as they formulate national policy.     

Nanoparticulate materials and regulatory policy in Europe: An analysis of stakeholder perspectives

The novel properties of nanoparticulate materials (NPM) and the rapid development of NPM based products have raised many unanswered questions and concerns by different stakeholders over its consequences for the environment and human health. These concerns have led to an increasing discussion in both the US and Europe about possible regulatory policies for NPM. In this article a comparative study of stakeholders’ perceptions on regulatory policy issues with NPM in Europe is presented. It was found that industry wants to regulate this area if the scientific evidence demonstrates that NPM are harmful, but also that the regulatory bodies do not find it necessary at this point of time to regulate until scientific evidence demonstrates that NPM are harmful. This research therefore shows that there will most likely not be any regulatory interventions until there is an established and convincing scientific knowledge base demonstrating that NPM can be hazardous. It is furthermore discussed in this article the different roles and responsibilities of the stakeholders in financing the research required to establish the necessary level of fundamental scientific evidence. It was also found that the activity of the regulatory bodies on this issue differ between the European countries.     

A two-level hedging point policy for controlling a manufacturing system with time-delay,demand uncertainty and extra capacity

This paper focuses on the production control of a manufacturing system with time-delay, demand uncertainty and extra capacity. Time-delay is a typical feature of networked manufacturing systems (NMS), because an NMS is composed of many manufacturing systems with transportation channels among them and the transportation of materials needs time. Besides this, for a manufacturing system in an NMS, the uncertainty of the demand from its downstream manufacturing system is considered; and it is assumed that there exist two-levels of demand rates, i.e., the normal one and the higher one, and that the time between the switching of demand rates are exponentially distributed. To avoid the backlog of demands, it is also assumed that extra production capacity can be used when the work-in-process (WIP) cannot buffer the high-level demands rate. For such a manufacturing system with time-delay, demand uncertainty and extra capacity, the mathematical model for its production control problem is established, with the objective of minimizing the mean costs for WIP inventory and occupation of extra production capacity. To solve the problem, a two-level hedging point policy is proposed. By analyzing the probability distribution of system states, optimal values of the two hedging levels are obtained. Finally, numerical experiments are done to verify the effectiveness of the control policy and the optimality of the hedging levels.     

Multi-criteria decision aid for the formulation of sustainable technological energy priorities using linguistic variables

Implementation of new and innovative energy technologies is a key mean towards a sustainable energy system. Currently, governments have to decide from an increasingly diverse mix of them, the ones which warrant support, including funding and other incentives for private sector efforts. However, appraising energy technologies in terms of their sustainability is a really complex task, considering the series of uncertainties and implications that have to be encountered so as to obtain realistic and transparent results. In this context, the main aim of this paper is to present a direct and flexible multi-criteria decision making approach, using linguistic variables, to assist policy makers in formulating sustainable technological energy priorities. Furthermore, its software realization will be applied to a number of technologies, in the context of the Greek Technology Foresight Programme, and the results will be presented and discussed.     

OPTIMAL IMPULSIVE CONTROL IN COMPETITIVE SYSTEM

In this paper,the impulsive exploitation of two species periodic competitive system is considered.First,we show that this type of system with impulsive har- vesting has a unique positive periodic solution,which is globally asymptotically stable.Further,by choosing the maximum total revenues as the management objective,we investigate the optimal harvesting policies for periodic competi- tive system with impulsive harvesting.Finally,we obtain the optimal time to harvest and optimal population level.     

On optimal polling policies

In a single-server polling system, the server visits the queues according to a routing policy and while at a queue, serves some or all of the customers there according to a service policy. A polling (or scheduling) policy is a sequence of decisions on whether to serve a customer, idle the server, or switch the server to another queue. The goal of this paper is to find polling policies that stochastically minimize the unfinished work and the number of customers in the system at all times. This optimization problem is decomposed into three subproblems: determine the optimal action (i.e., serve, switch, idle) when the server is at a nonempty queue; determine the optimal action (i.e., switch, idle) when the server empties a queue; determine the optimal routing (i.e., choice of the queue) when the server decides to switch. Under fairly general assumptions, we show for the first subproblem that optimal policies are greedy and exhaustive, i.e., the server should neither idle nor switch when it is at a nonempty queue. For the second subproblem, we prove that in symmetric polling systems patient policies are optimal, i.e., the server should stay idling at the last visited queue whenever the system is empty. When the system is slotted, we further prove that non-idling and impatient policies are optimal. For the third subproblem, we establish that in symmetric polling systems optimal policies belong to the class of Stochastically Largest Queue (SLQ) policies. An SLQ policy is one that never routes the server to a queue known to have a queue length that is stochastically smaller than that of another queue. This result implies, in particular, that the policy that routes the server to the queue with the largest queue length is optimal when all queue lengths are known and that the cyclic routing policy is optimal in the case that the only information available is the previous decisions.This work was supported in part by NSF under Contract ASC-8802764.     

货币政策宏观调控的一类大系统模型

本文以货币政策工具调控货币供应量为重点，结合我国货币政策传导机制和目前的经济和金融体制，在定量研究货币政策工具、中介目标和最终目标三者之间关系的基础上，建立了一个货币政策宏观调控的动态大系统模型．应用大系统共态预估法构造了此模型的最优控制算法，并利用比较静态分析方法研究了货币政策的非中立性．最后运用本模型就近期因法定存款准备金率和利率下调对货币供给量的影响进行了实例分析．     

A note on a single-vendor and multiple-buyers production-inventory policy for a deteriorating item

In this note we examine the total cost function of a single-vendor multiple-buyers production-inventory policy for a deteriorating item by Yang and Wee [P.C. Yang and H.M. Wee, A single-vendor multiple-buyers production-inventory policy for a deteriorating item, European Journal of Operational Research 143 (2002) 570–581]. Two possible flaws in the cost function of Wee and Yang’s model are pointed out. A proposal to eradicate the flaws is given.