Asymptotically optimal dividend policy for regime-switching compound Poisson models

This work develops asymptotically optimal dividend policies to maximize the expected present value of dividends until ruin.Compound Poisson processes with regime switching are used to model the surplus and the switching（a continuous-time controlled Markov chain） represents random environment and other economic conditions.Assuming the switching to be fast varying together with suitable conditions,it is shown that the system has a limit that is an average with respect to the invariant measure of a related Markov chain.Under simple conditions,the optimal policy of the limit dividend strategy is a threshold policy.Using the optimal policy of the limit system as a guide,feedback control for the original surplus is then developed.It is demonstrated that the constructed dividend policy is asymptotically optimal.     

基于MCMC的随机库存系统中提前期需求分布的计算

在需求和提前期均是随机的库存系统中,提前期需求的分布是由提前期分布与需求分布复合而成的,这个复合分布的计算通常是困难的。本文采用基于Gibbs抽样的马尔科夫链蒙特卡洛(MCMC,Markov chain Monte Carlo)方法,抽取条件分布样本作为提前期需求分布的样本,通过样本来计算提前期需求分布密度、服务水平和损失函数。这种方法避免了直接求解复杂积分计算上的困难,也克服了近似分布拟合偏差过大的问题,有效地解决了随机需求与随机提前期的复杂库存系统中提前期需求确定问题。理论与数值分析结果表明:与现有方法相比较,基于MCMC的方法具有计算简便、拟合精度高、通用性好等特点。     

损耗性物品信用交易下的斯坦博格库存模型

目前众多的信用交易模型是在供应商给定的信用交易期限条件下,零售商确定最优订购数量或订购周期,而很少考虑供应商信用交易策略的制定问题。本文针对损耗性物品,在最终需求为价格的线性函数条件下,利用斯坦博格博弈模型给出了信用交易下供应商信用交易策略的制定和零售商的最优订购决策,最后通过算例对模型进行了验证。     

考虑再维修的备件库存控制及设备维修策略

针对单纯采取库存分配的设备维修策略大幅降低低级别设备保障率的不足, 面向被延期维修的故障设备再维修, 提出备件库存控制策略和设备维修集成策略. 通过构建动态规划模型, 得出最优备件订货策略、故障设备即时维修策略、等待维修的故障设备再维修策略及相应的库存控制临界点. 算例表明, 相比单纯的库存分配策略和不考虑故障设备级别的维修策略, 该策略能明显减少设备维修费用, 且提高低级别设备保障率和总的保障率.     

A Dynamic Supplier Selection and Inventory Management Model for a Serial Supply Chain with a Novel Supplier Price Break Scheme and Flexible Time Periods

A new supplier price break and discount scheme taking into account order frequency and lead time is introduced and incorporated into an integrated inventory planning model for a serial supply chain that minimizes the overall incurred cost including procurement, inventory holding, production, and transportation. A mixed-integer linear programming (MILP) formulation is presented addressing this multi-period, multi-supplier, and multi-stage problem with predetermined time-varying demand for the case of a single product. Then, the length of the time period is considered as a variable. A new MILP formulation is derived when each period of the model is split into multiple sub-periods, and under certain conditions, it is proved that the optimal solution and objective value of the original model form a feasible solution and an upper bound for the derived model. In a numerical example, three scenarios of the derived model are solved where the number of sub-period is set to 2, 3, and 4. The results further show the decrease of the optimal objective value as the length of the time period is shortened. Sufficient evidence demonstrates that the length of the time period has a significant influence on supplier selection, lot sizing allocation, and inventory planning decisions. This poses the necessity of the selection of appropriate length of a time period, considering the trade-off between model complexity and cost savings.     

Dynamic inventory and pricing policy in a capacitated stochastic inventory system with fixed ordering cost

We study a dynamic inventory and pricing optimization problem in a periodic review inventory system with setup cost and finite ordering capacity in each period. We show that the optimal inventory control is characterized by an (s,s^′,p) policy in four regions of the starting inventory level.     

需求依赖销售努力库存系统的随机比较

研究需求依赖销售努力库存系统中需求不确定性对系统最优订货量、利润和销售努力的影响.对一般需求模型给出期望利润关于订货量和努力水平为联合凹的充分条件,证明期望利润函数的超模性质.对加乘需求模型证明系统最优利润和最优努力水平都可由一类与需求分布有关的广义TTT变换来表示.通过引入定义在不同支撑分布集合上一阶、二阶和三阶随机占优,得到广义TTT变换之差与二阶和三阶随机占优之间的关系式,建立了比较库存系统最优利润或努力水平的理论基础.在一阶和二阶随机占优意义下对加乘需求模型得到比较系统最优利润和努力水平的充分条件或充分必要条件.进一步,证明存在一类需求分布当系统关键比(或市场价格)足够大时系统最优利润和努力水平随需求可变性的增加而增加.最后给出几个数值例子验证了研究结果.     

我国粮食生产的技术推进模式及影响机制研究

基于农业生产技术的功能性特征及随机前沿理论,构建可分离柯布-道格拉斯形式生产函数,测算我国粮食生产全要素增长率及其组成成分.实证结果表明,1999-2011年间,小麦、稻谷和玉米作物的全要素增长率普遍较低,其中,前沿技术进步率对全要素增长率具有正的贡献;但技术效率(尤其是M技术效率)在逐年降低,是造成全要素增长率偏低的主要原因.在此基础上,对影响我国粮食生产技术效率变化的因素进行理论分析和实证检验.研究发现,以直接补贴为主的农业财政支出政策对BC和M技术效率提高作用明显,且影响效果最强.粮食生产技术的推广与普及、粮食生产的规模化和专业化对技术效率具有显著正向影响,但市场机制的影响效果并没有显现出来.     

考虑风险偏好的动态生产库存问题的鲁棒优化模型

不同阶段需求不确定情况下,决策者的风险偏好和生产过程中的废品处理影响着供应链生产库存管理和供应链整体效益。本文考虑决策者风险偏好下,构建了包含I个生产者企业,一个库存点和一个废物处理基地的T阶段动态供应链生产库存框架,建立了椭球型需求不确定集下,以追求整体收益最大化为目标的不确定优化模型,并应用鲁棒优化理论得到了数据确定性线性鲁棒对应模型,讨论了模型解的可靠性和有效性。最后的算例表明,只有当决策者风险偏好参数在一定范围内时,才会存在满足条件且具有较高可靠性的鲁棒决策,验证了该鲁棒优化模型的合理性。     

碳排放与资金双重约束下企业存货质押与生产决策

在碳排放许可与交易制度下,研究受资金约束的排放依赖性企业的存货质押与生产决策.以利润函数为目标函数构建决策模型,模型包括销售收入、生产成本、产成品存储费用、缺货成本、贷款利息、排放权市场交易费用和净化成本.通过求解,得出质押量、产量及对应的利润,最后对各参数进行敏感性分析.