关联规则向量化挖掘算法及其在车险精算中的应用

本文首先回顾了关联规则的基本概念和传统的Apriori算法，然后利用关联规则的数据库是布尔型数据库的特点，在计算关联规则的支持度和置信度的时候引进向量数乘和向量内积的概念，得到关联规则向量化挖掘算法ARVDA，避免全数据库逐条记录模式匹配和属性分层，提高算法的速度．最后，本文利用提升度量关联规则的重要性，采用单独追踪和对比分析方法，衡量车险精算中风险因子的有效性．结果表明把车辆使用性质作为车险定价的分级因素是比较合理的，对于非运营车辆需要合理的费用附加．     

保险赔付中的最优对冲策略

本文对带有付费过程$A_t$的保险公司在金融市场$(S_t,Q_t,B_t)$上通过购买股票$S_t$、兑换外币$Q_t$以及购买无风险资产$B_t$的投资过程而采取的最优投资策略, 使保险公司所面临的风险最小进行探讨. 利用Galtchouk-Kunita-Watanabe分解定理将风险表达式重新表达, 从而找到保险公司所能采取的风险最小的最优对冲策略. 文中举出一个具有现实性意义的例子将文章的重要结论加以应用, 使本文更具有应用价值.     

Risk theory insight into a zone-adaptive control strategy

The main purpose of this paper is a risk theory insight into the problem of asset-liability and solvency adaptive management. In the multiperiodic insurance risk model composed of chained classical risk models, a zone-adaptive control strategy, essentially similar to that applied in Directives [Directive 2002/13/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council of 5 March 2002, Brussels, 5 March 2002], is introduced and its performance is examined analytically. That examination was initiated in [Malinovskii, V.K., 2006b. Adaptive control strategies and dependence of finite time ruin on the premium loading. Insurance: Math. Econ. (in press)] and is based on the application of the explicit expression for the finite-time ruin probability in the classical risk model. The result of independent interest in the paper is the representation of that finite-time ruin probability in terms of asymptotic series, as time increases.     

Uniform estimate for maximum of randomly weighted sums with applications to insurance risk theory

This paper obtains the uniform estimate for maximum of sums of independent and heavy-tailed random variables with nonnegative random weights,which can be arbi- trarily dependent of each other.Then the applications to ruin probabilities in a discrete time risk model with dependent stochastic returns are considered.     

Performance Analysis with Truncated Heavy-Tailed Distributions

This paper deals with queues and insurance risk processes where a generic service time, resp. generic claim, has the form U ∧ K for some r.v. U with distribution B which is heavy-tailed, say Pareto or Weibull, and a typically large K, say much larger than . We study the compound Poisson ruin probability ψ(u) or, equivalently, the tail of the M/G/1 steady-state waiting time W. In the first part of the paper, we present numerical values of ψ(u) for different values of K by using the classical Siegmund algorithm as well as a more recent algorithm designed for heavy-tailed claims/service times, and compare the results to different approximations of ψ(u) in order to figure out the threshold between the light-tailed regime and the heavy-tailed regime. In the second part, we investigate the asymptotics as K → ∞ of the asymptotic exponential decay rate γ = γ ^(K) in a more general truncated Lévy process setting, and give a discussion of some of the implications for the approximations. AMS 2000 Subject Classification Primary 68M20, Secondary 60K25 †Partially supported by MaPhySto—A Network in Mathematical Physics and Stochastics, founded by the Danish National Research Foundation. An erratum to this article is available at .     

Equilibrium in natural catastrophe insurance market under disaster-resistant technologies,financial innovations and government interventions

Natural disasters increase in number and severity. Studies have shown the failure of the catastrophe insurance market by listing many causes or through developing economic models (Charpentier and Le Maux, 2014; Kousky and Cooke, 2012; Ibragimov et al., 2009). However, they have not considered the effect of the following factors on market equilibrium: advanced disaster-resistant technologies used by insureds, alternative financial innovations employed by insurers, and various disaster policies that are implemented by governments. To fill this gap, this study examines how these three factors affect the market equilibrium by changing the supply of, and demand for insurance and determines which factor(s) contributes to the market equilibrium. Furthermore, we derive the formula of position size which gives criteria for selecting index-based contracts. Overall annual numbers and insured losses of catastrophes are collected by peril type and by occurrence region listed in Sigma, which is issued by Swiss Re annually. The comparative static equilibrium analysis demonstrates that the improvement of market equilibrium is significant at low level of loss correlation in all cases. The empirical findings give insurers good references for business and geographical diversification in portfolio of catastrophe insurance policies.     

Optimal insurance with belief heterogeneity and incentive compatibility

People may evaluate risk differently in the insurance market. Motivated by this, we examine an optimal insurance problem allowing the insured and the insurer to have heterogeneous beliefs about loss distribution. To reduce ex post moral hazard, we follow Huberman et al. (1983) to assume that alternative insurance contracts satisfy the principle of indemnity and the incentive-compatible constraint. Under the assumption that the insurance premium is calculated by the expected value principle, we establish a necessary and sufficient condition for an optimal insurance solution and provide a practical scheme to improve any suboptimal insurance strategy under an arbitrary form of belief heterogeneity. By virtue of this condition, we explore qualitative properties of optimal solutions, and derive optimal insurance contracts explicitly for some interesting forms of belief heterogeneity. As a byproduct of this investigation, we find that Theorem 3.6 of Young (1999) is not completely true.     

Optimal consumption–investment and life-insurance purchase strategy for couples with correlated lifetimes

This paper presents a technique to solve the problem where a couple aims to optimize their consumption, investment, and life-insurance purchasing strategies, thereby maximizing their family objective until retirement. Assumed correlated lifetimes of the two wage earners are modeled by using both the copula and common-shock models. Subsequently, closed-form solutions are obtained for determination of the optimal strategies in both the copula and a special case of the common-shock models. As observed, use of the copula model is more advantageous in its provision of closed-form strategies and ability to distinguish mortality impacts. The optimization problem considered herein is investigated under a Markovian setting and solved using the Hamilton–Jacobi–Bellman equation. Numerical examples are also provided to illustrate the utility of the proposed optimization strategy.     

论保险投资新政对寿险公司投资收益的影响

近年来,保险监管部门颁布了多项保险投资新政,保险资金运用上的限制得到了放松.保险投资新政的实施对寿险公司投资收益有着怎样的影响呢?运用双重差分模型(DID模型),定量估计了保险投资新政实施前后的寿险公司投资收益的具体变化,并分析了何种因素对寿险公司的投资收益有显著影响.研究发现,保险投资新政对寿险公司的总投资收益率的提高有着积极的影响,保险投资新政对不同规模的寿险公司投资收益的影响存在着差异,仅考虑政策的调整因素,大型寿险公司的总投资收益率增量超过中小型寿险公司1.13%,综合考虑其它指标的影响后,其总投资收益率增量仍然超过中小型寿险公司0.097%.实证结果为保险监管部门的政策实施以及寿险公司的经营提供了新思路.     

P2P保险的道德风险问题研究

伴随信息产业的快速发展和互联网保险的广泛运用,近几年来国际上出现了一种新型保险模式――P2P保险(Peer to Peer Insurance)。该模式基于互联网,通过聚集若干风险类型相似的投保人组建风险共担互助小组,风险互助小组成员间一般是亲戚、朋友等熟人关系。P2P保险形成的相互监督机制和声誉机制,可以较好地解决传统保险市场中存在的道德风险问题。本文利用经济学中的比较静态分析方法,研究了P2P保险的道德风险问题,并从理论上证明了在P2P保险模式下,投保人会倾向于更加努力防范风险以降低出险概率,道德风险问题可以得到有效缓解。