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121.
Frank van der Meulen Moritz Schauer 《Stochastics An International Journal of Probability and Stochastic Processes》2018,90(5):641-662
We present a general framework for Bayesian estimation of incompletely observed multivariate diffusion processes. Observations are assumed to be discrete in time, noisy and incomplete. We assume the drift and diffusion coefficient depend on an unknown parameter. A data-augmentation algorithm for drawing from the posterior distribution is presented which is based on simulating diffusion bridges conditional on a noisy incomplete observation at an intermediate time. The dynamics of such filtered bridges are derived and it is shown how these can be simulated using a generalised version of the guided proposals introduced in Schauer, Van der Meulen and Van Zanten (2017, Bernoulli 23(4A)). 相似文献
122.
Evaluating the economic attractiveness of large projects often requires the development of large and complex financial models. Model complexity can prevent management from obtaining crucial information, with the risk of a suboptimal exploitation of the modelling efforts. We propose a methodology based on the so-called “differential importance measure (D)” to enhance the managerial insights obtained from financial models. We illustrate our methodology by applying it to a project finance case study. We show that the additivity property of D grants analysts and managers full flexibility in combining parameters into any group and at the desired aggregation level. We analyze investment criteria related to both the investors’s and lenders’ perspectives. Results indicate that exogenous factors affect investors (sponsors and lenders) in different ways, whether exogenous variables are considered individually or by groups. 相似文献
123.
Data envelopment analysis (DEA), as generally used, assumes precise knowledge regarding which variables are inputs and outputs; however, in many applications, there exists only partial knowledge. This paper presents a new methodology for selecting input/output variables endogenously to the DEA model in the presence of partial (or expert’s) knowledge by employing a reward variable observed exogenous to the operation of the DMUs. The reward is an allocation of a limited resource by an external agency, e.g. capital allocation by a market, based on the perceived internal managerial efficiencies. We present an iterative two-stage optimization model which addresses the benefit of possibly violating the expert information to determine an optimal internal performance evaluation of the DMUs for maximizing its correlation with the reward metric. Theoretical properties of the model are analyzed and statistical significance tests are developed for the marginal value of expert violation. The methodology is applied in Fundamental Analysis of publicly-traded firms, using quarterly financial data, to determine an optimized DEA-based fundamental strength indicator. More than 800 firms covering all major sectors of the US stock market are used in the empirical evaluation of the model. The firms so-screened by the model are used within out-of-sample mean-variance long-portfolio allocation to demonstrate the superiority of the methodology as an investment decision tool. 相似文献
124.
台商对大陆投资区位选择受地区市场因素、集聚因素、劳动力因素及基础设施基本政策等因素的影响.研究利用1995年至2007年台商投资区位选择的面板数据,首先验证了台商投资区位选择受到经济规模、区域开放程度、台商集聚度、劳动成本等关键因素的影响;并在此基础上,采用变系数面板数据模型重点分析了影响因素的时变特征.主要结论包括:外贸依存度指标的变化表现了台商投资由向外出口产品的模式逐渐转向在国内市场销售的模式;区域资金配套能力表明台商企业近些年呈现了对当地资金配套的需求;集聚因素影响显著性极高,说明台资企业的集聚现象非常显著,这与当前实际发展情况相似;劳动力因素结果说明台商对于劳动力的关注已从劳动力成本向劳动力质量转变等等.这些因素的时变特征,对台商投资大陆区位选择的行为是具有较强的解释力度. 相似文献
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126.
Tao Jiang 《高校应用数学学报(英文版)》2010,25(2):209-216
Under the assumption that the claim size is subexponentially distributed and the insurance surplus is totally invested in risky asset, a simple asymptotic relation of tail probability of discounted aggregate claims for renewal risk model within finite horizon is obtained. The result extends the corresponding conclusions of related references. 相似文献
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129.
We consider a Markovian jump process θ, with finite state space, feeding the parameters of a nonlinear diffusion process X. We observe θ and X in white noise, and—given a function f—we want to construct a finite filter for the f(X t )-process. An algorithm is investigated which will produce a finite filter if it halts after a finite number of steps, and we give necessary and. sufficient conditions for this to happen. 相似文献
130.
We describe and demonstrate an artificial model of technology discovery called the Bit‐Economy. The model is built from a minimal set of fundamental hallmarks of technology and develops under an open‐ended evolutionary operator which rewards new technology which is able to coordinate both spatially and temporally with the existing technology set. The Bit‐Economy, is able to replicate several features of real technology development including nonmonotonic growth, bunching of creation and destruction events, qualitative topologies of patent networks, and efficiency and waste‐management gains. In contrast to related works, we do not apply an exogenous fitness landscape and so are able to study the process of technology discovery as a self‐guided search toward more complex outcomes. © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Complexity 18: 57–67, 2013 相似文献