考虑时滞效应与均值-方差效用的非零和投资与再保险博弈

在考虑时滞效应的影响下研究了非零和随机微分投资与再保险博弈问题.以最大化终端绝对财富和相对财富的均值-方差效用为目标,构建了两个相互竞争的保险公司之间的非零和投资与再保险博弈模型,分别在经典风险模型和近似扩散风险模型下探讨了博弈的Nash均衡策略.借助随机控制理论以及相应的广义Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellm...     

Applying Hybrid ARIMA-SGARCH in Algorithmic Investment Strategies on S&P500 Index

This research aims to compare the performance of ARIMA as a linear model with that of the combination of ARIMA and GARCH family models to forecast S&P500 log returns in order to construct algorithmic investment strategies on this index. We used the data collected from Yahoo Finance with daily frequency for the period from 1 January 2000 to 31 December 2019. By using a rolling window approach, we compared ARIMA with the hybrid models to examine whether hybrid ARIMA-SGARCH and ARIMA-EGARCH can really reflect the specific time-series characteristics and have better predictive power than the simple ARIMA model. In order to assess the precision and quality of these models in forecasting, we compared their equity lines, their forecasting error metrics (MAE, MAPE, RMSE, MAPE), and their performance metrics (annualized return compounded, annualized standard deviation, maximum drawdown, information ratio, and adjusted information ratio). The main contribution of this research is to show that the hybrid models outperform ARIMA and the benchmark (Buy&Hold strategy on S&P500 index) over the long term. These results are not sensitive to varying window sizes, the type of distribution, and the type of the GARCH model.     

建设项目投资风险指标及模糊综合度量的研究

风险管理是建设项目管理的一个非常重要的方面,而风险指标是反映建设项目风险状况进行风险分析的一个重要内容.许多的学者对风险指标做过研究,其中大部分涉及的是经济评价和财务评价指标,或者使用损失期望值和方差的代数运算作为指标.本文在分析及总结前人风险指标研究成果的基础上,提出建设项目成本、时间和财务三方面的有关风险指标,并给出各指标的说明和计算公式.为综合评价建设项目的风险,本文利用了效用理论的思想和模糊理论方法,并以实例说明此模糊综合评价的具体计算步骤.     

连续型动态规划在投资决策中的应用

首先简要介绍了动态规划方法及在投资决策中的应用.然后给出一个具体示例进行分析和计算.     

3种动态分析法用于多方案比较的研究

介绍了用于多方案比较的 3种动态分析法的原理及应用 ,从数学上证明了利用这三种方法进行方案比较所得的结论之间的关系 .     

模糊错误集上的置换变换及其在投资决策中的应用

研究模糊错误集上的置换变换在错误的传递、转化与消除过程中的性质和规律 ,建立了避免投资决策错误的模糊数学模型 ,介绍了置换变换在消除投资决策错误中的应用方法 .     

用自回归模型预测中国股市未来现金股利水平

对中国股市1996年以后所发放的现金股利的分布规律进行了研究,发现中国股市现金股利增量时间序列近似符合平稳过程。在此基础上探讨了利用线性模型技术的自回归(AR)模型对未来股利水平进行预测的一些技术问题,然后运用蒙特卡罗技术对现金股利增量进行了模拟试验,产生了足够多的数据并得出了拟合预报方程。最后对未来四十年中国股市现金股利的发放水平进行了预测。     

The effect of information in separable Bayesian semi-Markov control models and its application to investment planning

We consider a separable Bayesian semi-Markov control model to describe economic decisions under uncertainty. Our main interest is to examine the influence of the possibility of learning on the economic decisions and on the total expected return in a multi-period framework. We make use of the concept of Blackwell-sufficiency and apply the results to multi-period investment planing under uncertainty.     

Admissible investment strategies in continuous trading

We consider a situation where relative prices of assets may change continuously and also have discrete jumps at random time points. The problem is the one of portfolio optimization. If the utility function used is the logarithm, we first argue that an optimal investment plan exists. Secondly, we show that any such plan has a certain optimality property known to hold also in discrete time models. Moreover, we show that this optimality criterion can be simplified significantly. In particular we show how admissibility can be related directly to observable characteristics of the investment strategy.     

投资环境地区横向比较

本文以各地区经济数据为基础,通过建立统计分析的数学模型,给出了度量、评测投资环境的客观标准,并应该标准对几个典型城投资环境进行评价和分类,从一个新的角度,就客观、定量的研究投资环境进行了探索.