Risk perceptions and rationality in measures of risk

Individuals may have biased perceptions of health and safety risks. We conjecture perceptions of mortality risk from various risk measures using parametric and non-parametric methods. We investigate how risk perceptions are measured and what rational explanations can be found for these measures with implication for risk and solvency.     

A preferential attachment model with Poisson growth for scale-free networks

We propose a scale-free network model with a tunable power-law exponent. The Poisson growth model, as we call it, is an offshoot of the celebrated model of Barabási and Albert where a network is generated iteratively from a small seed network; at each step a node is added together with a number of incident edges preferentially attached to nodes already in the network. A key feature of our model is that the number of edges added at each step is a random variable with Poisson distribution, and, unlike the Barabási–Albert model where this quantity is fixed, it can generate any network. Our model is motivated by an application in Bayesian inference implemented as Markov chain Monte Carlo to estimate a network; for this purpose, we also give a formula for the probability of a network under our model.     

On the use of fuzzy inference techniques in assessment models: part I—theoretical properties

An assessment model is a mathematical model that produces a measuring index, either in the form of a numerical score or a category to a situation/object, with respect to the subject of measure. From the numerical score, decision can be made and action can be taken. To allow valid and useful comparisons among various situations/objects according to their associated numerical scores to be made, the monotone output property and the output resolution property are essential in fuzzy inference-based assessment problems. We investigate the conditions for a fuzzy assessment model to fulfill the monotone output property using a derivative approach. A guideline on how the input membership functions should be tuned is also provided. Besides, the output resolution property is defined as the derivative of the output of the assessment model with respect to its input. This derivative should be greater than the minimum resolution required. From the derivative, we suggest improvements to the output resolution property by refining the fuzzy production rules.     

水泥产品结构的综合智能优化及应用研究

根据水泥市场需求信息,运用自适应模糊推理系统对水泥产品结构需求进行系统建模,应用并行遗传算法对模型求解,得到了来年的最优水泥产品结构需求计划,为水泥企业的生产规划及其经济效益的提高提供了重要的参考价值.     

一个捕捉与再捕捉模型的贝叶斯分析

本文在无信息先验和Jeffreys先验下 ,就捕捉与再捕捉试验和多次重复的捕捉与再捕捉试验两种情况 ,推导了封闭总体中个体总数N的贝叶斯点估计与区间估计 ,并计算了一个实例     

Determining Causal Skeletons with Information Theory

Modeling a causal association as arising from a communication process between cause and effect, simplifies the discovery of causal skeletons. The communication channels enabling these communication processes, are fully characterized by stochastic tensors, and therefore allow us to use linear algebra. This tensor-based approach reduces the dimensionality of the data needed to test for conditional independence, e.g., for systems comprising three variables, pair-wise determined tensors suffice to infer the causal skeleton. The only thing needed is a minor extension to information theory, namely the concept of path information.     

Maximum Entropy Approach to Reliability of Multi-Component Systems with Non-Repairable or Repairable Components

The degradation and recovery processes are multi-scale phenomena in many physical, engineering, biological, and social systems, and determine the aging of the entire system. Therefore, understanding the interplay between the two processes at the component level is the key to evaluate the reliability of the system. Based on the principle of maximum entropy, an approach is proposed to model and infer the processes at the component level, and is applied to repairable and non-repairable systems. By incorporating the reliability block diagram, this approach allows for integrating the information of network connectivity and statistical moments to infer the hazard or recovery rates of the degradation or recovery processes. The overall approach is demonstrated with numerical examples.     

ELIHKSIR Web Server: Evolutionary Links Inferred for Histidine Kinase Sensors Interacting with Response Regulators

Two-component systems (TCS) are signaling machinery that consist of a histidine kinases (HK) and response regulator (RR). When an environmental change is detected, the HK phosphorylates its cognate response regulator (RR). While cognate interactions were considered orthogonal, experimental evidence shows the prevalence of crosstalk interactions between non-cognate HK–RR pairs. Currently, crosstalk interactions have been demonstrated for TCS proteins in a limited number of organisms. By providing specificity predictions across entire TCS networks for a large variety of organisms, the ELIHKSIR web server assists users in identifying interactions for TCS proteins and their mutants. To generate specificity scores, a global probabilistic model was used to identify interfacial couplings and local fields from sequence information. These couplings and local fields were then used to construct Hamiltonian scores for positions with encoded specificity, resulting in the specificity score. These methods were applied to 6676 organisms available on the ELIHKSIR web server. Due to the ability to mutate proteins and display the resulting network changes, there are nearly endless combinations of TCS networks to analyze using ELIHKSIR. The functionality of ELIHKSIR allows users to perform a variety of TCS network analyses and visualizations to support TCS research efforts.     

Active Inference: Applicability to Different Types of Social Organization Explained through Reference to Industrial Engineering and Quality Management

Active inference is a physics of life process theory of perception, action and learning that is applicable to natural and artificial agents. In this paper, active inference theory is related to different types of practice in social organization. Here, the term social organization is used to clarify that this paper does not encompass organization in biological systems. Rather, the paper addresses active inference in social organization that utilizes industrial engineering, quality management, and artificial intelligence alongside human intelligence. Social organization referred to in this paper can be in private companies, public institutions, other for-profit or not-for-profit organizations, and any combination of them. The relevance of active inference theory is explained in terms of variational free energy, prediction errors, generative models, and Markov blankets. Active inference theory is most relevant to the social organization of work that is highly repetitive. By contrast, there are more challenges involved in applying active inference theory for social organization of less repetitive endeavors such as one-of-a-kind projects. These challenges need to be addressed in order for active inference to provide a unifying framework for different types of social organization employing human and artificial intelligence.     

“Exact” and Approximate Methods for Bayesian Inference: Stochastic Volatility Case Study

We conduct a case study in which we empirically illustrate the performance of different classes of Bayesian inference methods to estimate stochastic volatility models. In particular, we consider how different particle filtering methods affect the variance of the estimated likelihood. We review and compare particle Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), RMHMC, fixed-form variational Bayes, and integrated nested Laplace approximation to estimate the posterior distribution of the parameters. Additionally, we conduct the review from the point of view of whether these methods are (1) easily adaptable to different model specifications; (2) adaptable to higher dimensions of the model in a straightforward way; (3) feasible in the multivariate case. We show that when using the stochastic volatility model for methods comparison, various data-generating processes have to be considered to make a fair assessment of the methods. Finally, we present a challenging specification of the multivariate stochastic volatility model, which is rarely used to illustrate the methods but constitutes an important practical application.