Parameter inference in small world network disease models with approximate Bayesian Computational methods

Small world network models have been effective in capturing the variable behaviour of reported case data of the SARS coronavirus outbreak in Hong Kong during 2003. Simulations of these models have previously been realized using informed “guesses” of the proposed model parameters and tested for consistency with the reported data by surrogate analysis. In this paper we attempt to provide statistically rigorous parameter distributions using Approximate Bayesian Computation sampling methods. We find that such sampling schemes are a useful framework for fitting parameters of stochastic small world network models where simulation of the system is straightforward but expressing a likelihood is cumbersome.     

An information‐combining model for expectation states theory: Derivation and tests

Our status‐related behavior toward others is a function of the characteristics we perceive them to possess. Expectation states theory specifies the nature of the relationship between social characteristics and behavior, but until recently was limited to situations in which only one characteristic is perceived. This paper adds to the theory additional general assumptions from which an information‐combining model is derived. This model specifies status‐related behavior in multiple characteristic situations and other circumstances beyond the original scope of the theory. Comparisons of the model with other formulations provide excellent support.     

An adaptive neuro‐fuzzy inference system for islanding detection in wind turbine as distributed generation

This article proposes a new integrated diagnostic system for islanding detection by means of a neuro‐fuzzy approach. Islanding detection and prevention is a mandatory requirement for grid‐connected distributed generation (DG) systems. Several methods based on passive and active detection scheme have been proposed. Although passive schemes have a large non‐detection zone (NDZ), concern has been raised on active method due to its degrading power‐quality effect. Reliably detecting this condition is regarded by many as an ongoing challenge as existing methods are not entirely satisfactory. The main emphasis of the proposed scheme is to reduce the NDZ to as close as possible and to keep the output power quality unchanged. In addition, this technique can also overcome the problem of setting the detection thresholds inherent in the existing techniques. In this study, we propose to use a hybrid intelligent system called ANFIS (the adaptive neuro‐fuzzy inference system) for islanding detection. This approach utilizes rate of change of frequency (ROCOF) at the target DG location and used as the input sets for a neuro‐fuzzy inference system for intelligent islanding detection. This approach utilizes the ANFIS as a machine learning technology and fuzzy clustering for processing and analyzing the large data sets provided from network simulations using MATLAB software. To validate the feasibility of this approach, the method has been validated through several conditions and different loading, switching operation, and network conditions. The proposed algorithm is compared with the widely used ROCOF relays and found working effectively in the situations where ROCOF fails. Simulation studies showed that the ANFIS‐based algorithm detects islanding situation accurate than other islanding detection algorithms. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Complexity 21: 10–20, 2015     

Optimal adaptive replacement in a renewal process

In this paper we present an exact method for computing the Weibull renewal function and its derivative for application in maintenance optimization. The computational method provides a solid extension to previous work by which an approximation to the renewal function was used in a Bayesian approach to determine optimal replacement times. In the maintenance scenario, under the assumption an item is replaced by a new one upon failure, the underlying process between planned replacement times is a renewal process. The Bayesian approach takes into account failure and survival information at each planned replacement stage to update the optimal time until the next planned replacement. To provide a simple approach to carry out in practice, we limit the decision process to a one‐step optimization problem in the sequential decision problem. We make the Weibull assumption for the lifetime distribution of an item and calculate accurately the renewal function and its derivative. A method for finding zeros of a function is adapted to the maintenance optimization problem, making use of the availability of the derivative of the renewal function. Furthermore, we develop the maximum likelihood estimate version of the Bayesian approach and illustrate it with simulated examples. The maintenance algorithm retains the adaptive concept of the Bayesian methodology but reduces the computational need. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Dynamic effects in inefficiency: Evidence from the Colombian banking sector

Firms face a continuous process of technological and environmental changes that requires them to make managerial decisions in a dynamic context. However, costs and constraints prevent firms from making instant adjustments towards optimal conditions and may cause inefficiency to persist in time. We propose a dynamic inefficiency specification that captures differences in the adjustment costs among firms and non-persistent effects of inefficiency heterogeneity. The model is fitted to a ten year sample of Colombian banks. The new specification improves model fit and have effects on efficiency estimations. Overall, Colombian banks present high inefficiency persistence but important differences between institutions are found. In particular, merged banks present low adjustment costs that allow them to recover rapidly efficiency losses derived from merging processes.     

A nonlinear partial least squares algorithm using quadratic fuzzy inference system

We introduce a new nonlinear partial least squares algorithm ‘Quadratic Fuzzy PLS (QFPLS)’ that combines the outer linear Partial Least Squares (PLS) framework and the Takagi–Sugeno–Kang (TSK) fuzzy inference system. The inner relation between the input and the output PLS score vectors is modeled by a quadratic TSK fuzzy inference system. The performance of the proposed QFPLS method is tested and compared against four other well‐known partial least squares methods (Linear PLS (LPLS), Quadratic PLS (QPLS), Linear Fuzzy PLS (LFPLS), and Neural Network PLS (NNPLS)) on various different types of randomly generated test data. QFPLS outperformed competitors based on two comparison measures: the output variables cumulative per cent variance captured by the PLS latent variables and the root mean‐square error of prediction (RMSEP). Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Bayesian modeling of forestry data with R using optimization and simulation tools

Data generated in forestry biometrics are not normal in statistical sense as they rarely follow the normal regression model. Hence, there is a need to develop models and methods in forest biometric applications for non-normal models. Due to generality of Bayesian methods it can be implemented in the situations when Gaussian regression models do not fit the data. Data on diameter at breast height (dbh), which is a very important characteristic in forestry has been fitted to Weibull and gamma models in Bayesian paradigm and comparisons have also been made with its classical counterpart. It may be noted that MCMC simulation tools are used in this study. An attempt has been made to apply Bayesian simulation tools using \textbf{R} software.     

Speeding up MCMC by Delayed Acceptance and Data Subsampling

The complexity of the Metropolis–Hastings (MH) algorithm arises from the requirement of a likelihood evaluation for the full dataset in each iteration. One solution has been proposed to speed up the algorithm by a delayed acceptance approach where the acceptance decision proceeds in two stages. In the first stage, an estimate of the likelihood based on a random subsample determines if it is likely that the draw will be accepted and, if so, the second stage uses the full data likelihood to decide upon final acceptance. Evaluating the full data likelihood is thus avoided for draws that are unlikely to be accepted. We propose a more precise likelihood estimator that incorporates auxiliary information about the full data likelihood while only operating on a sparse set of the data. We prove that the resulting delayed acceptance MH is more efficient. The caveat of this approach is that the full dataset needs to be evaluated in the second stage. We therefore propose to substitute this evaluation by an estimate and construct a state-dependent approximation thereof to use in the first stage. This results in an algorithm that (i) can use a smaller subsample m by leveraging on recent advances in Pseudo-Marginal MH (PMMH) and (ii) is provably within O(m^{? 2}) of the true posterior.