State Sampling Dependence of Hopfield Network Inference

The fully connected Hopfield network is inferred based on observed magnetizations and pairwise correlations.We present the system in the glassy phase with low temperature and high memory load.We find that the inference error is very sensitive to the form of state sampling.When a single state is sampled to compute magnetizations and correlations,the inference error is almost indistinguishable irrespective of the sampled state.However,the error can be greatly reduced if the data is collected with state transitions.Our result holds for different disorder samples and accounts for the previously observed large fluctuations of inference error at low temperatures.     

State-dependent diffusion coefficients and free energies for nucleation processes from Bayesian trajectory analysis

ABSTRACT

The rate of nucleation processes such as the freezing of a supercooled liquid or the condensation of supersaturated vapour is mainly determined by the height of the nucleation barrier and the diffusion coefficient for the motion across it. Here, we use a Bayesian inference algorithm for Markovian dynamics to extract simultaneously the free energy profile and the diffusion coefficient in the nucleation barrier region from short molecular dynamics trajectories. The specific example we study is the nucleation of vapour bubbles in liquid water under strongly negative pressures, for which we use the volume of the largest bubble as a reaction coordinate. Particular attention is paid to the effects of discretisation, the implementation of appropriate boundary conditions and the optimal selection of parameters. We find that the diffusivity is a linear function of the bubble volume over wide ranges of volumes and pressures, and is mainly determined by the viscosity of the liquid, as expected from the Rayleigh–Plesset theory for macroscopic bubble dynamics. The method is generally applicable to nucleation processes and yields important quantities for the estimation of nucleation rates in classical nucleation theory.     

Inverse statistical problems: from the inverse Ising problem to data science

Inverse problems in statistical physics are motivated by the challenges of ‘big data’ in different fields, in particular high-throughput experiments in biology. In inverse problems, the usual procedure of statistical physics needs to be reversed: Instead of calculating observables on the basis of model parameters, we seek to infer parameters of a model based on observations. In this review, we focus on the inverse Ising problem and closely related problems, namely how to infer the coupling strengths between spins given observed spin correlations, magnetizations, or other data. We review applications of the inverse Ising problem, including the reconstruction of neural connections, protein structure determination, and the inference of gene regulatory networks. For the inverse Ising problem in equilibrium, a number of controlled and uncontrolled approximate solutions have been developed in the statistical mechanics community. A particularly strong method, pseudolikelihood, stems from statistics. We also review the inverse Ising problem in the non-equilibrium case, where the model parameters must be reconstructed based on non-equilibrium statistics.     

基于设备结构分解的可视化故障推理与诊断技术研究

通过定义热区和热区索引,将故障推理与诊断同设备结构分解相对应,在诊断的过程中构建了故障自动推理编码规则,可将故障树转换成一系列可操作的且具有一定逻辑关系的编码,实现可视化故障自动推理和诊断。通过某型电子装备进行故障推理实例验证,表明该方法层次结构清晰,推理简单有效,能够实现装备可视化的LRU级分层故障诊断和故障的快速定位。     

铁路货车纵向载荷的试验测量和统计推断研究

通过线路测试得到我国通用线路C70货车车钩纵向载荷时间历程,利用雨流计数法得到车钩纵向载荷均值-频次谱。分别对我国通用线路C70货车车钩纵向载荷谱、大秦线C80B货车车钩纵向载荷谱、AAR90.7t漏斗车车钩纵向载荷谱及FMG矿石车车钩纵向载荷谱的分布特征进行分析,并对最大纵向载荷进行统计推断研究。研究结果表明:铁路货车最大纵向载荷随着轴重、牵引吨位的增大而增大。经纵向动力学仿真分析发现,单车轴重、牵引吨位、编组方式的不同是导致上述变化的原因。     

基于小波方差的MEMS IMU随机误差模型间接估计方法

MEMS IMU(Mirco Electro Mechanical System Inertial Measurement Unit)微机电惯性测量模块广泛应用于组合导航系统,其中MEMS IMU随机误差模型的准确性对导航精度有着重要的影响。针对Allan方差法在估计随机误差模型方面的不足,研究了间接估计方法。该方法以Daubechies离散小波变换与间接推断原理为基础,根据小波系数的零均值平稳特征,对分解尺度进行确定,将小波方差作为间接估计辅助参数,分析了最优估计准则的渐近一致性,最后使用高斯牛顿法对估计结果进行校正,获得满足渐近一致性的随机误差模型参数估计结果。仿真结果表明,间接估计方法提高了随机误差模型的估计精度,其中一阶马尔科夫过程的相关时间估计精度提高了12.383%,解决了一阶马尔科夫过程模型的准确估计问题。通过试验结果分析,进一步证明了以上结论。     

A new method to build confidence regions for solutions of stochastic variational inequalities

Stochastic variational inequalities model a large class of equilibrium problems subject to data uncertainty. The true solution to such a problem is usually estimated by a solution to its sample average approximation (SAA) problem. This article proposed a new method to build asymptotically exact confidence regions for the true solution that are computable from the SAA solution.     

Global alignment of molecular sequences via ancestral state reconstruction

We consider the trace reconstruction problem on a tree (TRPT): a binary sequence is broadcast through a tree channel where we allow substitutions, deletions, and insertions; we seek to reconstruct the original sequence from the sequences received at the leaves. The TRPT is motivated by the multiple sequence alignment problem in computational biology. We give a simple recursive procedure giving strong reconstruction guarantees at low mutation rates. To our knowledge, this is the first rigorous trace reconstruction result on a tree in the presence of indels.     

Nonparametric predictive utility inference

We consider the natural combination of two strands of recent statistical research, i.e., that of decision making with uncertain utility and that of Nonparametric Predictive Inference (NPI). In doing so we present the idea of Nonparametric Predictive Utility Inference (NPUI), which is suggested as a possible strategy for the problem of utility induction in cases of extremely vague prior information. An example of the use of NPUI within a motivating sequential decision problem is also considered for two extreme selection criteria, i.e., a rule that is based on an attitude of extreme pessimism and a rule that is based on an attitude of extreme optimism.