财务脆弱性问题的报童模型

在品牌渠道体系的建设过程中,除了对利润最大化的追求以外,财务上的脆弱性／柔性会极大地影响着经销商的决策心理和商业行为实践。本文着重考察单位产品利润率和剩余产品处理费用对经销商决策心理和行为的影响,通过分析零售商的收益分布状况,再基于展望理论的思路,建立了参考点取决于损益状况的报童展望模型。最后证明,财务脆弱性将更大地发挥损失厌恶型决策者的保守心理。     

一致凸模糊映射及其有关性质

讨论了模糊映射的一致凸性及其有关性质,给出了模糊映射为一致凸的几个判别准则,并得到了可微一致凸模糊映射在某一点达到最小值的充分条件.     

Intensional dynamic programming. A Rosetta stone for structured dynamic programming

We present intensional dynamic programming (IDP), a generic framework for structured dynamic programming over atomic, propositional and relational representations of states and actions. We first develop set-based dynamic programming and show its equivalence with classical dynamic programming. We then show how to describe state sets intensionally using any form of structured knowledge representation and obtain a generic algorithm that can optimally solve large, even infinite, MDPs without explicit state space enumeration. We derive two new Bellman backup operators and algorithms. In order to support the view of IDP as a Rosetta stone for structured dynamic programming, we review many existing techniques that employ either propositional or relational knowledge representation frameworks.     

Optimal risk probability for first passage models in semi-Markov decision processes

This paper studies the risk minimization problem in semi-Markov decision processes with denumerable states. The criterion to be optimized is the risk probability (or risk function) that a first passage time to some target set doesn't exceed a threshold value. We first characterize such risk functions and the corresponding optimal value function, and prove that the optimal value function satisfies the optimality equation by using a successive approximation technique. Then, we present some properties of optimal policies, and further give conditions for the existence of optimal policies. In addition, a value iteration algorithm and a policy improvement method for obtaining respectively the optimal value function and optimal policies are developed. Finally, two examples are given to illustrate the value iteration procedure and essential characterization of the risk function.     

Positioning of new brands in an experiment

This paper deals with an experimental investigation of positioning new brands. For this purpose, a management game was carried out with students. The brands introduced in the cause of the game were analysed in respect to their positions in a two-dimensional feature space. We try to find out which of the two strategies, niche policy and imitation, is more frequently used in complex decision situations and if there is a difference in profits. Furthermore, we want to find out, whether differences of prices and advertising exist in our experiment depending on the positioning strategy used.     

Variable Fuzzy Sets and its Application in Comprehensive Risk Evaluation for Flood-control Engineering System

Due to significance of the engineering system for flood control and the multi-dimensional synthesis of the risk evaluation issue that the paper selects typical risk indexes to classify risk degree of flood-control engineering. Under global view of system that the variable fuzzy sets method is presented to set up comprehensive evaluation model for flood-control engineering system (FCES). The method can scientifically and reasonably determine membership degrees and relative membership functions of disquisitive indexes at level interval that relating to engineering, also it can fully use one’s experience and knowledge, qualitative and quantitative information of index system to obtain weights of indexes for operating comprehensive risk evaluation for FCES. The numerical example shows that the proposed method is feasible and effective, and the evaluation results are reasonable.     

群决策中语言信息与其他4种偏好信息的一致化方法

研究语言信息与其他4种偏好信息(偏好次序,效用值,互反判断矩阵,互补判断矩阵)之间的相互转换问题.首先,根据各种偏好信息的实际意义,给出语言信息与他们之间的转换公式,并从理论上证明转换公式的合理性;其次,证明了若语言判断矩阵具有完全一致性,转换后的互反判断矩阵和互补判断矩阵也具有完全一致性;最后用实例验证了转换公式的有效性.     

(L,M)-模糊拓扑空间中模糊紧性的测度

本文借助不等式,在(L,M)-拓扑空间中引入了模糊紧性度的概念,并讨论了它的性质.     

苏北盆地海安凹陷钻头优选技术

苏北盆地海安凹陷钻井存在钻头选型复杂,单井钻头数量使用过多,钻井周期长,钻井效率低等问题,迫切需要解决钻头优选问题.用模糊优化理论对常用钻头选型的效益指数法进行了改造完善,建立了新的钻头优选模型,对海安已钻27口井的钻头进行了优选,确定了实钻效果最佳的钻头.运用优选的钻头在现场进行钻井作业,取得优良的效果,极大提高了钻井效率,缩短了钻井周期,同时也极大简化了钻头选型.探索了一条有效解决苏北盆地海安凹陷及相邻区块钻头优选的技术路径,为高效勘探开发苏北盆地提供了有力的技术支撑.     

Arbitration procedures with multiple arbitrators

We consider two final-offer arbitration procedures in the case where there is more than one arbitrator. Two players, labeled 1 and 2 and interpreted here as Labor and Management, respectively, are in dispute about an increase in the wage rate. They submit final offers to a Referee. There are N arbitrators. Each of the arbitrators has her own assessment and selects the offer which is closest to her assessment. After that each arbitrator informs the Referee about her decision. The Referee counts the votes and declares the player obtaining the most votes to be the winner. Under the second arbitration scheme, the Referee takes into account only the assessments which lie between the players’ offers. The game is modeled as a zero-sum game. The Nash equilibrium in this arbitration game is derived.