基于VaR方法的我国外汇储备币种结构风险分析

基于VaR方法,把外汇储备看做是一个由不同币种组成的资产组合,通过实证分析测算各币种比例相对变化时的VaR值.结果表明,从控制风险的角度,目前我国应减少外汇储备中欧元的比重而增加美元的比重.     

随机利率下奇异期权的定价公式

在随机利率条件下,借助于测度变换获得了复合看涨期权的一般的定价公式,同时利用鞅理论和Girsanov定理,在利率服从于扩展的Vasicek利率模型时,得到了复合看涨期权精确的定价公式.用同样的方法,考虑了预设日期的重置看涨期权的定价问题,在利率服从同样的利率模型时,获得了重置看涨期权的定价公式.数值化的结果进一步说明了当利率遵循扩展的Vasicek利率模型时,B-S看涨期权的价格关于标的资产的价格是严格单调递增的,复合看涨期权的Geske公式是可以推广到随机利率的情况.     

原棉异纤维检测系统照明光源光照度分布研究

在基于机器视觉的原棉异纤维检测系统中,选择能满足检测系统的光源和照明方案是提高系统检测率和检出率的关键,使检测对象尽可能多地显现出特征信息。选用单芯片InGaN(蓝)/YAG荧光粉型白光LED作为照明光源,采用理论计算和非成像光学设计的方法对LED阵列的光照度分布进行了研究,并根据原棉异纤维检测系统对光源光照度的具体要求,设计出了LED正方形阵列和三角形阵列两种排列方式,并利用TracePro软件对两种阵列形式进行仿真。通过比较两种阵列形式光照度分布的结果,最终选用高光照度且均匀性好的LED三角形阵列作为原棉异纤维检测系统的照明光源,满足了机器视觉成像的要求。     

Simulation of nonlinear interest rates in quantum finance: Libor Market Model

The simulation of the Libor Market Model (LMM) is extensively studied in the framework of quantum finance. The imperfectly correlated Libor rates are simulated based on a Gaussian quantum field and a recursion equation of nontrivial stochastic drift. The Libor options are studied using both the simulation method and the analytical formula. The caplet price of simulation is compared with Black’s caplet formula which can be exactly derived from the LMM. The invariance of caplet price for different forward bond numeraire is verified by using the simulation. The simulation results for coupon bond options and swaptions are compared with the approximate price, which are limited for the reason that the approximate price is derived using the small volatility expansion. The simulation method is shown to have great potential in the application of pricing interest rate instruments.     

An ETD Crank‐Nicolson method for reaction‐diffusion systems

A novel Exponential Time Differencing Crank‐Nicolson method is developed which is stable, second‐order convergent, and highly efficient. We prove stability and convergence for semilinear parabolic problems with smooth data. In the nonsmooth data case, we employ a positivity‐preserving initial damping scheme to recover the full rate of convergence. Numerical experiments are presented for a wide variety of examples, including chemotaxis and exotic options with transaction cost. © 2011Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Numer Methods Partial Differential Eq, 2012     

Revisiting corporate growth options in the presence of state-dependent cashflow risk

Given a non-trivial market price of risk, we study the impact of state-dependent cashflow risk on the optimal investment policy and on the ensuing value of an unlevered firm that holds the option of scaling up cashflows from its assets in place upon incurring an irreversible cost. The firm’s investment decision and value are studied as a function of the market price of risk and of the degree of state dependence in cashflow risk.     

Computing arbitrage upper bounds on basket options in the presence of bid–ask spreads

We study the problem of computing the sharpest static-arbitrage upper bound on the price of a European basket option, given the bid–ask prices of vanilla call options in the underlying securities. We show that this semi-infinite problem can be recast as a linear program whose size is linear in the input data size. These developments advance previous related results, and enhance the practical value of static-arbitrage bounds as a pricing technique by taking into account the presence of bid–ask spreads. We illustrate our results by computing upper bounds on the price of a DJX basket option. The MATLAB code used to compute these bounds is available online at www.andrew.cmu.edu/user/jfp/arbitragebounds.html.     

中国利用外资的市场绩效——基于装备制造业的实证研究

本文以我国装备制造业为例,运用回归分析和"拉开档次"综合评价法,选取资源配置效率、规模经济效益和技术进步作为评价市场绩效的指标,对我国利用外资的市场绩效进行实证分析。结果表明:(1)外资有助于整体市场绩效的提高;(2)外资促进了资源配置效率的提高,但提高的速度在减缓;(3)外资与规模经济效益呈正相关关系,但同样存在着增加趋势减缓的现象;(4)外资在很大程度上推动了产业技术进步,促进了创新能力的提升。基于研究结论,给出了我国引进外资的政策建议。     

Dynamics of implied volatility surfaces from random matrix theory

We analyze the dynamics of the implied volatility surface of KOSPI 200 futures options from random matrix theory. To extract the informative data, we use random matrix criteria. Implied volatility data have a colossal eigenvalue, and the order of eigenvalues in a noisy regime is distinguishably smaller than a random matrix theory prediction. We discern the marketwide knowledge of the implied volatility surface movement such as the level, skew, and smile effect. These dynamics has the ergodic property and long range autocorrelation. We also study the relationship between the three implied volatility surface dynamics and the underlying asset dynamics, and confirm the existence of leverage effect even in the short time interval.     

Dynamic investment strategies with demand-side and cost-side risks

Investments in cost reductions are critical for the long run success of companies that operate in dynamic and stochastic market environments. This paper studies optimal investment in cost reductions as a real option under the assumption that a single firm faces two different sources of risk, stochastic demand and input prices. We derive optimal investment strategies for a monopoly as well as a firm in a perfectly competitive market and show that in case of high marginal costs, cost reductions take place earlier in competitive than in monopoly markets. While the existence of an option to invest in cost reductions increases firm value it also increases a firm’s systematic risk. Risk can be smaller in a monopolistic than in a competitive industry.