对外贸易与宁波经济发展的关系

亚洲金融危机之后，宁波乃至全国的外贸都面临严峻的考验，在这种条件下，中国政府提出扩大内需的措施来缓解不利的经济发展环境。宁波的对外贸易乘数逐渐减少，出口对经济的牵动作用下降。良性发展的经济不是仅仅依靠国内市场或国际市场，而是应充分利用国际、国内两个市场、两种资源，通过两个市场的发展，共同促进宁波经济的发展。本文拟通过对宁波对外贸易发展现状的实证分析，指出宁波应重视国内市场，真正实现国内市场与国外市场的互动，实现国内需求与国外需求的同时增长，带动整个宁波经济的发展。     

Data-driven hedging of stock index options via deep learning

We develop deep learning models to learn the hedge ratio for S&P500 index options from options data. We compare different combinations of features and show that with sufficient training data, a feedforward neural network model with time to maturity, the Black-Scholes delta and market sentiment as inputs performs the best in the out-of-sample test under daily hedging. This model significantly outperforms delta hedging and a data-driven hedging model. Our results also demonstrate the importance of market sentiment for hedging.     

研究与开发投资的多阶段实物期权分析

本文结合技术不确定性和现金流不确定性及专利保护 ,将 R& D项目划分为 R& D阶段和新产品商业化阶段 ,运用实物期权法 ,对 R& D项目进行分析 .由动态规划方法推倒出有关项目价值评估和投资期权评价的方程式 ,并作相应典型数值分析 .     

Approximation of Non-Lipschitz SDEs by Picard Iterations

In this article, we propose an approximation method based on Picard iterations deduced from the Doléans–Dade exponential formula. Our method allows to approximate trajectories of Markov processes in a large class, e.g., solutions to non-Lipchitz stochastic differential equation. An application to the pricing of Asian-style contingent claims in the constant elasticity of variance model is presented and compared to other methods of the literature.     

基于广义脉冲的东北三省外贸外资与经济增长研究

作为连接其他国家和地区的桥梁和纽带,对外经贸在国际经济关系中有着十分重要的地位。本研究选取对外经贸与经济增长代表性指标,以各指标平均增长率为切入点,通过构建相对增长指数模型,测算东北三省的外贸相对增长指数(TGI)和外资相对增长指数(CGI)并进行分类,结果显示三省外贸、外资增长类型截然不同。进一步,将历年外贸、外资增速与经济增速进行对比分析发现,外贸增速与经济增速具高度同步性,且始终扮演经济晴雨表的角色,外资增速则更具不确定性和偶然性。最后,广义脉冲响应分析显示外贸外资冲击经济增长均产生显著效应,但响应程度不尽相同,各指标贡献度通过方差分解呈现。本文为外贸外资与经济增长关系研究提供了新的视角。     

A Modified Binomial Tree Method for Currency Lookback Options

Abstract The binomial tree method is the most popular numerical approach to pricing options. However, for currency lookback options, this method is not consistent with the corresponding continuous models, which leads to slow speed of convergence. On the basis of the PDE approach, we develop a consistent numerical scheme called the modified binomial tree method. It possesses one order of accuracy and its efficiency is demonstrated by numerical experiments. The convergence proofs are also produced in terms of numerical analysis and the notion of viscosity solution. Supported by National Science Foundation of China (No. 19871062)     

Probabilistic solution of the American options

The existence and uniqueness of probabilistic solutions of variational inequalities for the general American options are proved under the hypothesis of hypoellipticity of the infinitesimal generator of the underlying diffusion process which represents the risky assets of the stock market with which the option is created. The main tool is an extension of the Itô formula which is valid for the tempered distributions on Rd and for nondegenerate Itô processes in the sense of the Malliavin calculus.     

外商直接投资对安徽产业结构影响的实证分析

外商直接投资不仅为安徽带来了经济建设所急需的资金、技术和管理经验,创造了就业机会,增加了财政收入,还促进了安徽产业结构的升级。本文通过分布滞后模型分析了外商直接投资对安徽三大产业生产总值的效应,从而说明外商直接投资会对安徽产业结构产生影响。     

Computational Methods for Pricing American Put Options

This work develops computational methods for pricing American put options under a Markov-switching diffusion market model. Two methods are suggested in this paper. The first method is a stochastic approximation approach. It can handle option pricing in a finite horizon, which is particularly useful in practice and provides a systematic approach. It does not require calibration of the system parameters nor estimation of the states of the switching process. Asymptotic results of the recursive algorithms are developed. The second method is based on a selling rule for the liquidation of a stock for perpetual options. Numerical results using stochastic approximation and Monte Carlo simulation are reported. Comparisons of different methods are made. This research was supported in part by the National Science Foundation and in part by the Wayne State University Research Enhancement Program.     

基于实物期权的土地转化开发决策研究

在几何布朗运动假设基础上利用实物期权方法分析了不确定环境下农业用地向城市用地转化问题,得到了地价结构函数,同时利用首次达到时间理论分析了这一问题的可达性,并进行了比较静态分析,最后通过在转化开发前后征收不同税率分析了税收对土地转化和地价的影响.研究加深了我们对土地转化开发中的各种经济现象的理解和认识,并为房地产开发中的科学决策提供了理论支持.