金融功能升级与区域金融发展的动态内生俱乐部收敛

本文在对区域金融收敛特征研究过程中融入金融发展理论的核心思想,并构建包含金融功能升级因素的区域金融发展收敛分析框架,使用金融规模指标、金融结构指标和基于三阶段DEA模型测算的金融效率指标,将动态空间收敛模型和内生门槛收敛模型二者相结合对我国区域金融发展的收敛性和层级特征进行探究,得出结论如下:我国东部地区金融规模表现出收敛的特征,金融结构虽已逐渐匹配于经济结构,但仍呈现一定的组内差异性,金融效率趋于收敛;西部地区金融规模也表现出收敛趋势,但其金融结构与经济结构不相匹配,金融效率呈现出较大的组内差异,都没有表现出收敛的趋势;中部地区则由于需要同时顾及金融规模扩张、金融结构优和金融效率提升而面临着众多困难,其金融发展呈现一定的发散性和低层次特征。金融发展组内异质性导致成员打破传统区域设定,呈现出跨区域向发达省份接近的动态内生俱乐部收敛特征,区域金融发展呈现出不同的层级特征。     

金融租赁公司流动性风险研究

为研究金融租赁公司流动性风险,本文首次建立租赁公司现金流过程的多期动态模型,利用该模型定量分析了初始备付金、到期借款续借率和回收租金三个变量对公司流动性风险的影响。随后用违约概率来度量流动性风险,将问题转化成求解状态空间不断增大的非齐次马尔可夫链首中时的概率分布,并设计出违约算法(DA)和蒙特卡洛方法(MC)两种求解首中时分布的算法。算例表明提高初始备付金额度、到期借款续借率以及租金额度能有效地降低流动性风险。最后将银行的存贷利率和不同的租金定价方法融入基本模型,并通过三种不同的租金定价方式进一步分析了承租人信用风险对金融租赁公司流动性风险的影响。     

EID-based sliding mode investment policy design for fuzzy stochastic jump financial systems

This paper proposes a sliding mode investment policy design for nonlinear stochastic financial systems which can be represented by the well-known Takagi–Sugeno fuzzy model. When modeling the financial systems, it is more important to consider the unpredictable investment changes and worldwide unpredictable events which can be regarded as external disturbances. The equivalent-input-disturbance (EID) approach combined with sliding mode investment policy design is implemented to reject the unpredictable investment changes for having better investment. Moreover, the Luenberger state observer is constructed for the addressed financial system to estimate the unpredictable investment changes and worldwide unpredictable events. More precisely, a sliding mode investment policy design is developed by solving the obtained linear matrix inequality (LMI)-based constrained algorithm. Finally, the obtained results of the addressed fuzzy stochastic financial system are verified through numerical simulation to show efficiency of the proposed sliding mode investment policy design.     

Financial distress drivers in Brazilian banks: A dynamic slacks approach

This study applies the Dynamic Slacks Based Model (DSBM) developed by Tone and Tsutsui (2010) in order to assess the evolution of input saving/output increasing potentials in major Brazilian Banks from 1996 to 2011. We propose that these potentials or slacks can be used as proxies for an eventual financial distress situation in the future. The main research objective is to determine whether or not different characteristics of bank type – related to ownership, size, and merger and acquisition processes – are significantly related to inefficiency levels and, by extension, to an eventual financial distress situation, since higher inefficiency levels also imply lower input saving/output decreasing potentials. Based on a balanced panel model, secondary data from Economatica were collected and analyzed. Results indicate higher inefficiency levels and slacks in small public and national banks. Policy implications are also addressed.     

基于蒙特卡罗模拟的上海铜期货保证金研究

基于VaR技术的保证金计算方法被视为保证金制度发展的趋势,蒙特卡罗模拟则被用来解决传统VaR模型对价格波动极端状况时的低估问题。根据基于蒙特卡罗模拟的保证金算法对上海期货交易所铜期货保证金水平的实证结果,模拟的保证金算法能够适应铜期货合约风险管理的需求,保证金水平反映了市场风险状况,也有效的降低了投资者交易成本。铜期货合约现行静态保证金收取方式亟需改进,5%保证金比例总体偏高,但在市场剧烈波动时又略显不足。综合考虑反馈检验,投资者交易成本,以及模型的计算时间,EGARCH-T是最佳的铜期货保证金模拟算法。     

多期动态背景下的债务共谋与产品市场竞争关系模型研究

利用超博弈理论分析方法建立了多期动态背景下的债务共谋与产品市场竞争关系模型并进行了分析。发现在战略替代下，一个产业中公司之间相互竞争程度越高，则维持零负债共谋战略所需要的折现系数就越大，产业竞争程度较高的公司偏离零负债共谋的可能性越大。因此，债务共谋结论重新加强了竞争程度与最优杠杆正相关的观点。     

Relaxation in statistical many-agent economy models

We review some statistical many-agent models of economic and social systems inspired by microscopic molecular models and discuss their stochastic interpretation. We apply these models to wealth exchange in economics and study how the relaxation process depends on the parameters of the system, in particular on the saving propensities that define and diversify the agent profiles.     

Multiattribute evaluation of greek banking performance

Ordinal regression analysis is proposed as a means for evaluating banking performance over multiple attributes in the presence of non-monotonic preferences. First, a multivariate statistical analysis is applied to measure the banking performance on the basis of financial ratios that derive from the study of financial statements of a sample of Greek banks for the period 1989–1992. Then, an additive utility model is assessed to obtain the final ranking of a representative sample of Greek banks.     

具有无穷维商品空间和不完全金融市场经济的一般均衡存在性(英文）

本文研究具有无穷维商品空间和不完全金融市场两时期经济的一般均衡存在性问题．假设交易发生在证券以币值单位支付的一系列现货市场和期货市场上，并且对证券的卖空没有任何限制．推广的Stiemke引理是情形的基本估值定理，意即证券价格在时间0的现值是时间1状态集合Ω上收益的价值．一般均衡是一列现货价格和期货价格与一列个体计划，使得市场出清．我们证明一般均衡的存在性，条件是经济人具有Mackey连续、弱凸、严格单调和完全的偏好关系与严格正的初始占有．     

Optimal investment horizons

In stochastic finance, one traditionally considers the return as a competitive measure of an asset, i.e., the profit generated by that asset after some fixed time span Δt, say one week or one year. This measures how well (or how bad) the asset performs over that given period of time. It has been established that the distribution of returns exhibits “fat tails” indicating that large returns occur more frequently than what is expected from standard Gaussian stochastic processes [1-3]. Instead of estimating this “fat tail” distribution of returns, we propose here an alternative approach, which is outlined by addressing the following question: What is the smallest time interval needed for an asset to cross a fixed return level of say 10%? For a particular asset, we refer to this time as the investment horizon and the corresponding distribution as the investment horizon distribution. This latter distribution complements that of returns and provides new and possibly crucial information for portfolio design and risk-management, as well as for pricing of more exotic options. By considering historical financial data, exemplified by the Dow Jones Industrial Average, we obtain a novel set of probability distributions for the investment horizons which can be used to estimate the optimal investment horizon for a stock or a future contract. Received 20 February 2002 Published online 25 June 2002