离散时间投资组合保险策略CPPI及其实证分析

本文重点讨论了在离散时刻对投资组合进行调整的CPPI策略.给出了组合价值的过程表达式,并对其进行风险分析;引入二次期望效用函数,给出了确定CPPI策略中最优乘数的方法;讨论了借贷限制对CPPI策略的影响并将其与买入持有策略进行比较分析。最后,文章对CPPI策略的投资效果进行了实证分析.     

EXPECTED DISCOUNTED PENALTY FUNCTION AT RUIN FOR RISK PROCESS PERTURBED BY DIFFUSION UNDER INTEREST FORCE

In this article, the risk process perturbed by diffusion under interest force is considered, the continuity and twice continuous differentiability for Фδ（u,w） are discussed,the Feller expression and the integro-differential equation satisfied by Фδ （u ,w） are derived. Finally, the decomposition of Фδ（u,w） is discussed, and some properties of each decomposed part of Фδ（u,w） are obtained. The results can be reduced to some ones in Gerber and Landry＇s,Tsai and Willmot＇s, and Wang＇s works by letting parameter δ and （or） a be zero.     

Optimal periodic replacement policy for repairable products under free-repair warranty

This paper investigates the effects of a free-repair warranty on the periodic replacement policy for a repairable product. Cost models are developed for both a warranted and a non-warranted product, and the corresponding optimal periodic replacement policies are derived such that the long-run expected cost rate is minimized. For a product with an increasing failure rate function, structural properties of these optimal policies are obtained. By comparing these optimal policies, we show that the optimal replacement period for a warranted product should be adjusted toward the end of the warranty period. Finally, examples are given to numerically illustrate the impact of a product warranty on the optimal periodic replacement policy.     

用等效用原理对马氏链市场的UL生存合约定价

利用效用无差异原理,根据动态规划原则,最大化财富的期望指数效用,在马氏链驱动的市场下,导出HJB方程,给出unit-linked(UL)生存合约在简单Poisson市场下的保费方程,并给出它的数值模拟．这个结果推广了Brown运动驱动的市场下的保费方程,使得UL生存合约在联接到纯跳的市场时,可以用效用无差异原理定价．     

多级适应性休假MX/G/1排队系统的离去过程

考虑多级适应性休假的M~X/G/1排队系统的离去过程.运用全概率分解,更新过程理论和拉普拉斯-斯蒂尔吉变换,讨论了从初始状态i(i=0,1,…)出发,在(0,t]中服务完顾客的平均数,揭示了离去过程的特殊结构,并由此得到了一些特殊排队模型的相应指标.     

STUDY ON THE INTERRELATION OF EFFICIENT PORTFOLIOS AND THEIR FRONTIER UNDER t DISTRIBUTION AND VARIOUS RISK MEASURES

In order to study the effect of different risk measures on the efficient portfolios (frontier) while properly describing the characteristic of return distributions in the stock market, it is assumed in this paper that the joint return distribution of risky assets obeys the multivari-ate t-distribution. Under the mean-risk analysis framework, the interrelationship of efficient portfolios (frontier) based on risk measures such as variance, value at risk (VaR), and expected shortfall (ES) is analyzed and compared. It is proved that, when there is no riskless asset in the market, the efficient frontier under VaR or ES is a subset of the mean-variance (MV) efficient frontier, and the efficient portfolios under VaR or ES are also MV efficient; when there exists a riskless asset in the market, a portfolio is MV efficient if and only if it is a VaR or ES efficient portfolio. The obtained results generalize relevant conclusions about investment theory, and can better guide investors to make their investment decision.     

Scenario-based stochastic programs: Resistance with respect to sample

A contamination technique is presented as a numerically tractable tool to post-optimization and analysis of robustness of the optimal value of scenario-based stochastic programs and of the expected value problems. Detailed applications of the method concern the two-stage stochastic linear programs with random recourse and the corresponding robust optimization problems.This work was supported by the Grant Agency of the Czech Republic under Grant No. 402/93/0631.     

失效率的综合E-Bayes估计

该文提出了可靠性参数的一种新估计方法综合E-Bayes估计法.在无失效数据情形下给出了失效率的E-Bayes估计的定义,并给出了失效率的E-Bayes估计。在引进失效信息后，给出了失效率的E-Bayes估计，并在此基础上给出了失效率和其它参数的综合E-Bayes估计。最后，结合实际问题进行计算，结果表明该文提出的方法可行且便于应用。     

Unbounded expected utility and continuity

This paper develops an axiom system for expected utility in a setting wherepreferences are defined directly on probability distributions of outcomes. The axioms do not imply boundedness of the utility function. The approach is topological, and conditions for continuity of the utility function are brought out.