On Information Processes in Statistical Experiments with Distributed Observations

Using stochastic integration theory in topological vector spaces general formulas for the Hellinger processes are derived. Feynman–Kac type formulas are obtained for the related Hellinger integrals in terms of the Hellinger processes and the geometric mean measures. The expected logarithmic utility from data, characterized as the Shannon information, is also considered.     

Trapezoidal approximations of fuzzy numbers preserving the expected interval — Algorithms and properties

Fuzzy number approximation by trapezoidal fuzzy numbers which preserves the expected interval is discussed. Algorithms for calculating the proper approximations are proposed and some properties of the approximation operators are discussed. It is shown that an adequate approximation operator might be chosen through the comparisons of some characteristics of the fuzzy number, like its ambiguity, width, its value and weighted expected value.     

Influence diagrams with super value nodes involving imprecise information

The concept of super value nodes was established to allow dynamic programming to be performed within the theory of influence diagrams and to reduce the computational complexity in solving problems by means of influence diagrams. This paper is focused on how influence diagrams with super value nodes are affected by the presence of imprecise information. We analyze how to reduce the complexity when evaluating an influence diagram in this framework by modelling these kinds of nodes and random magnitudes in terms of fuzzy random variables. Finally, an applied example of the theoretical results is developed.     

求解最大利润流问题的一个算法

为了便于建立与最大利润流问题有关的决策支持系统，本给出了一个交易网络中求最大利润流的数值算法，证明了算法的理论依据，并举例了说明算法的应用。该算法能求得问题的最优解，并具有易于编程实现、收敛性好等优点，大量数值实验表明该算法非常实用有效。     

寡头竞争中的价格空间歧视研究

本先建立空间连续的价格歧视模型，得出竞争厂商进行价格空间歧视将得到更大利润占有更多的消费剩余。接着讨论了空间连续的价格歧视模型的局限性，为了增强可操作性提出价格空间歧视离散化。得出在空间差异竞争市场中，市场细分将增加竞争厂商的利润，同时得出竞争厂商价格空间歧视最大化均衡利润的条件。     

敏捷供应链管理中最优激励方案的实现问题研究

合理的利益分配策略可以稳定敏捷供应链的运营过程,加速敏捷供应链目标的实现.基于委托-代理理论,研究了敏捷供应链利益分配中最优激励方案的设计问题,得出在信息对称条件下由于合作伙伴企业的努力水平可以为主导企业所观测,因而容易制定最优激励方案并实现利益分配.而在更多的信息不对称条件下,需要对合作伙伴企业的产出结果进行监督和评估,通过不同努力水平下的分布概率间接地获得努力水平信息.该结论对于敏捷供应链利益分配系统的设计与实现具有重要指导意义.对最优激励方案在敏捷供应链利益分配中的实现过程进行了说明,通过适当的评价指标体系和评价方法,实现了利益分配中考虑努力水平等因素的激励策略.     

The valuation of life contingencies: A symmetrical triangular fuzzy approximation

This paper extends the framework for the valuation of life insurance policies and annuities by Andrés-Sánchez and González-Vila (2012, 2014) in two ways. First we allow various uncertain magnitudes to be estimated by means of fuzzy numbers. This applies not only to interest rates but also to the amounts to be paid out by the insurance company. Second, the use of symmetrical triangular fuzzy numbers allows us to obtain expressions for the pricing of life contingencies and their variability that are closely linked to standard financial and actuarial mathematics. Moreover, they are relatively straightforward to compute and understand from a standard actuarial point of view.     

The fundamental theorem of mutual insurance

The essence of mutual insurance is the notion that re-distributing risk in a pool of risks is more beneficial than taking the risk alone. Interpreting ‘more beneficial’ as an increase in utility and considering sequences of exchangeable risks, we are able to formalize this notion from the policyholder’s perspective and demonstrate its validity for various alternative preference functionals (e.g., expected utility, Choquet expected utility, and distortion risk measures). To obtain this result, we exploit that for a sequence of exchangeable risks the corresponding sequence of arithmetical averages is a reversed martingale.We conclude that pooling risks is fundamental for understanding the mechanisms of insurance because it favourably affects the utility of policyholders, and we refer to this phenomenon as the ‘utility-improving effect of risk pooling’. Moreover, we demonstrate that the utility of the policyholder is (strictly) increasing with the size of the risk pool.     

Distributionally robust profit opportunities

This paper expands the notion of robust profit opportunities in financial markets to incorporate distributional ambiguity using Wasserstein distance as the ambiguity measure. Financial markets with risky and risk-free assets are considered. The infinite dimensional primal problems are formulated, leading to their simpler finite dimensional dual problems. A principal motivating question is how distributional ambiguity helps or hurts the robustness of the profit opportunity. Towards answering this question, some theory is developed and computational experiments are conducted. Finally some open questions and suggestions for future research are discussed.     

考虑联盟结构的联合采购合作剩余分配博弈分析

联合采购合作剩余分配本质是在最大联盟剩余值与最小期望分配值之间的谈判协商过程。当前联合采购合作剩余分配研究主要基于参与企业地位无差别假设,忽略了联盟结构对剩余分配具有明显影响。基于联盟形成的层次结构,研究论证了采购企业通过组建小联盟形式参与更大联盟的联合采购,可提升其在分配谈判中的话语权。通过算例分析表明,考虑联盟结构的联合采购合作剩余分配相对于不考虑联盟结构得到的分配方案更具公平性和合理性。