Errors associated with simple versus realistic models

This paper addresses the relative errors associated with simple versus realistic (or science-based) models. We take the perspective of trying to predict what the model will predict as we begin to build the model. Any model building process can get the model “wrong” to a greater or lesser extent by making a theoretical mistake in constructing the model. In addition, every model needs data of some sort, whether it be obtained by experiments, surveys or expert judgment, and the data collection process is filled with error sources. This paper suggests a hypothesis that

Assessing the impact of inventory inaccuracies within a Newsvendor framework

This paper examines a Newsvendor framework in which a wholesaler who sells products to retailers is subject to inaccuracies in inventory data. The wholesaler’s decision regarding the management of his warehouse inventory is based on inventory data recorded in the information system. We assume that the wholesaler uses barcode labels and scanners in order to gather information concerning the available inventory in the warehouse. Because of errors arising during the manual barcode scanning process, the information on the available inventory level can deviate from the physical quantity and can result in an additional cost. This paper quantifies the economic impact of having uncertainty on the inventory level. We first analyze the case of a wholesaler that is not aware of inventory errors or chooses to ignore them in order to evaluate the efficiency loss due to errors compared with an error free situation. We then assess the effect of various actions enabling to tackle the inventory inaccuracy issue with a particular focus on actions such as the deployment of a new data capture technology.     

Solution of Davey-Stewartson equations by homotopy perturbation method

In this paper, we extend the homotopy perturbation method to solve the Davey-Stewartson equations. The homotopy perturbation method is employed to compute an approximation to the solution of the equations. Computation the absolute errors between the exact solutions of the Davey-Stewartson equations and the HPM solutions are presented. Some plots are given to show the simplicity the method. The article is published in the original.     

汛期降水相似动力预报——模式误差主分量相似预报方法

针对相似动力预报中模式预报误差的估计问题,提出将模式误差的直接相似订正问题转化成模式误差主分量的相似预报问题.客观上将模式误差主分量分成可预报和不可预报两部分, 对于可预报主分量采用最优多因子动态配置方案进行相似预报, 而对于不可预报部分则用系统平均代替.基于国家气候中心季节预报业务模式、 美国气候预报中心组合降雨分析资料及国家气候中心气候系统诊断预报室74项环流指数和美国国家海洋和大气管理局的40个气候指数,对东北区域汛期降水进行了预报试验. 2005—2010年6年独立样本检验预报平均距平相关系数为0.29,较系统误差订正预报的0.04有较大提高, 证实该方案能提高国家气候中心季节预报业务模式汛期降水预报水平.     

有辅助信息时有限总体分布函数的新估计量

本文提出两个新的估计量,利用观察数据中的总体辅助信息来估计有限总体分布函数,并通过两个人工总体的模拟实验,比较新的估计量、传统的估计量及Rao,Kover&Mantel(1990)提出的估计量的相对平均误差与相对标准差。结果表明,从相对标准差的角度分析,两个新的估计量有一个是四个估计量中精度最好的一个,另一个也有很好的表现;而且它们在模型有所偏差时都具备了较好的稳健性。     

Method comparison on confidence interval construction for the slope in a linear measurement model with heteroscedastic errors

In analytical chemistry, the evaluation on performance accuracy of an analytical method is an important issue. When an adjusted or new method (test method) is developed, the linear measurement error model is commonly used to compare it with another reference method. For this routine practice, the measurements on the reference method can be placed on the x‐axis, whereas those of the test method on the y‐axis, then the slope of this linear relationship indicates the agreement between them and also the performance of the test method. Under the assumption that both variables are subject to heteroscedastic measurement errors, a novel approach based on the concepts of a generalized pivotal quantity (GPQ) is proposed to construct confidence intervals for the slope. Its performance is compared with two maximum likelihood estimation (MLE)‐based approaches through simulation studies. It is shown that the proposed GPQ‐based approach is capable of maintaining the empirical coverage probabilities close to the nominal level and yielding reasonable expected lengths. The GPQ‐based approach can be recommended in practical use because of its easy implementation and better performance than the MLE‐based approaches in most simulation scenarios. Two real datasets are given to illustrate the approaches. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

洗衣机液体平衡环仿真模拟

波轮式洗衣机在脱水过程中会因离心力而产生强烈的振动,液体平衡环的纠偏特性是减振的最主要方式之一.平衡环通过环内液体流动产生的离心力来达到减振目的,因此平衡环内液体离心力数值的准确性直接影响仿真模拟的结果.过往研究采用离心力理论公式进行的仿真模拟与实验结果有较大偏差.而本文将FLUENT仿真得到的离心力数值,代入ADAMS中进行洗衣机整机的仿真,可以得到与实验更为接近的仿真结果.