核实数据下响应变量缺失的线性EV模型经验似然推断

考虑响应变量随机缺失而协变量带有误差的线性模型,借助于核实数据和借补方法,构造了回归系数的两种经验似然比,证明了所提出的估计的经验对数似然比渐近于一个自由度为1的独立χ2变量的加权和;而经调整后所得的调整经验对数似然比渐近于自由度为p的χ2分布,该结果可以用来构造未知参数的置信域.此外,我们也构造了响应均值的调整经验对数似然比统计量,并证明了所提出的统计量渐近于x2分布,可用此结果构造响应均值的置信域.通过模拟研究比较了置信域的精度及其平均区间长度.     

基于EMD方法的混沌信号中周期分量的提取

提出一种从Duffing振子产生的混沌信号中提取谐波分量的方法．依据任何信号由不同的固有简单振动模态组成的概念,利用经验模式分解（EMD）方法,将混沌信号分离为不同的内在模态函数(IMF),并在特定参数下从中分解出单一频率成分的谐波信号,从而成功地将混沌信号和谐波分量分离．仿真实验都表明该方法非常有效．     

相依序列密度函数的经验似然推断

本文利用了强平稳$m-$相依序列的特殊性质,讨论了$m-$相依序列密度函数的经验似然推断, 给出了似然比统计量的极限分布,可构造参数的经验似然置信区间. 并且通过模拟计算来说明有限样本下应用经验似然方法的合理性.     

带优化参数的SVR模型及在软件成本估算中的应用

随着社会各行各业对软件开发投资的日益增长,产业界和学术界越来越关注可靠的软件成本估算,以有效控制软件开发过程中相关风险.为了能更准确地估算软件成本,提出一种带遗传算法优化参数的支持向量回归机模型,用遗传算法来优化支持向量回归机模型中的参数集(C,γ,ε),可以避免参数选择的盲目性,能显著提高支持向量回归机模型的预测能力.分别用IBM DP、Kemerer和Hallmark三个数据库来验证模型的有效性,并与常用的线性回归模型进行对比,结果显示采用遗传算法优化的支持向量回归机模型具有很好的学习精度和推广能力,在MMRE和Pred(0.25)两个标准上都优于线性回归模型.     

Adaptive nonparametric estimation of a multivariate regression function

We consider the kernel estimation of a multivariate regression function at a point. Theoretical choices of the bandwidth are possible for attaining minimum mean squared error or for local scaling, in the sense of asymptotic distribution. However, these choices are not available in practice. We follow the approach of Krieger and Pickands (Ann. Statist.9 (1981) 1066–1078) and Abramson (J. Multivariate Anal.12 (1982), 562–567) in constructing adaptive estimates after demonstrating the weak convergence of some error process. As consequences, efficient data-driven consistent estimation is feasible, and data-driven local scaling is also feasible. In the latter instance, nearest-neighbor-type estimates and variance-stabilizing estimates are obtained as special cases.     

超总体模型下有限总体的估计

超总体模型是抽样理论与统计学其它分支联系的桥梁,借助于超总体模型研究抽样理论是一个有前途的方法．本文综述了这方面的结果,包括总体目标量的估计及其精度估计,同时提出了若干未来的研究问题．     

经验正交函数与遗传算法结合的副热带高压位势场非线性模型反演

针对副热带高压的动力预报模型难以准确构建的困难,基于T106数值预报产品500 hPa位势高度场序列,用经验正交函数（EOF）分解方法对位势场序列进行了时、空分解,引入了动力系统重构思想,以EOF分解的空间模态的时间系数序列作为动力模型变量,用遗传算法全局搜索和并行计算优势,进行了动力模型参数的优化反演,建立了客观合理的非线性动力模型．通过对动力模型积分和EOF的时、空重构,实现了副热带高压的中、长期预报．试验结果表明,本文反演的动力模型的副热带高压预报效果优于常规的数值预报产品,该研究工作为副热带高压等复杂天气系统和要素场预报提供了新的方法思路和技术途径．     

Logistic和Lotka-Volterra模型参数的灰色估计方法研究

根据灰色系统建模原理,对Logistic模型中的参数进行了估计,将此方法应用于Gause(1934)草履虫实验数据的拟合,并与已有拟合结果对比,说明此方法是有效的.然后将其推广至两种群的Lotka—Volterra模型参数的确定,来研究山西省人口—经济系统的发展演化状况,得出了满意的结果.     

Empirical likelihood for AR-ARCH models based on LAD estimation

By employing the empirical likelihood method,confidence regions for the stationary AR(p)-ARCH(q) models are constructed.A self-weighted LAD estimator is proposed under weak moment conditions.An empirical log-likelihood ratio statistic is derived and its asymptotic distribution is obtained.Simulation studies show that the performance of empirical likelihood method is better than that of normal approximation of the LAD estimator in terms of the coverage accuracy,especially for relative small size of observation.     

Unlocking the Hidden Potential of Cosmetics Waste for Building Sustainable Green Pavements in the Future: A Case Study of Discarded Lipsticks

This investigation is dedicated to unlocking the hidden potential of discarded cosmetics towards building green sustainable road pavements in the future. It is particularly aiming at exploring waste lipstick (WLS) as a high-quality functional additive for advanced asphalt mix technologies. To fuel this novel innovation, the effect of various WLS doses (e.g., 5, 10, and 15 wt.%) on the performance of base AP-5 asphalt cement was studied in detail. A wide array of cutting-edge analytical lab techniques was employed to inspect in-depth the physicochemical, microstructural, thermo-morphological, and rheological properties of resultant admixtures including: elemental analysis, Fourier transform-infrared spectroscopy (FT-IR), X-ray diffraction (XRD), thin-layer chromatography-flame ionization detection (TLC-FID), scanning electron microscopy (SEM), atomic force microscopy (AFM), thermogravimetric analysis (TGA), differential scanning calorimetry (DSC), needle penetration, ring and ball softening point, Brookfield viscometer, ductility, and dynamic shear rheometer (DSR) tests. Unlike the unstable response of asphaltenes, the additive/artificial aging treatments increased the fraction of resins the most, and decreased that of aromatics; however, asphaltenes did not impair the saturates portion, according to Iatroscan research. FT-IR scan divulged that the WLS-asphalt interaction was physical rather than chemical. XRD diagnosis not only revealed an obvious correlation between the asphaltenes content and the fresh-binder crystallinity but also revealed the presence of fillers in the WLS, which may generate outstanding technical qualities to bituminous mixes. According to AFM/SEM analyses, the stepwise incorporation of WLS grew the magnitude of the “bee-shaped” microstructures and extended the roughness rate of unaged/aged binders. The prolonged consumption of the high thermal-stable additive caused a remarkable drop in the onset degradation and glass transition temperature of mixtures, thus enhancing their workability and low-temperature performance, according to TGA/DTGA/DSC data. The DSR and empirical rheological experiments demonstrated that the WLS could effectively lower the manufacturing and compaction temperatures of asphalt mixes and impart them with valuable anti-aging/fatigue-cracking assets. In a nutshell, the use of waste lipstick as an asphalt modifier is viable and cost-effective and could attenuate the pollution arisen from the beauty sector, while improving the performance of hot/warm asphalt mixes (HAM/WAM) and extending the service life of roadways.