基于WSR的水利工程全过程协同管理研究

在水利工程管理当中,从前期决策、勘察设计、建造到运营维护的全过程,引入全过程协同管理,可以产生和助力发挥协同效应.以都江堰工程为例,运用物理-事理-人理方法论(Wuli-Shili-Renli System Approach,以下简称WSR方法论),从物理、事理、人理角度,对协同管理进行系统分析,通过构建基于WSR系统的协同管理三维分析模型、协同管理分析矩阵和协同管理分析框架,为水利工程的协同管理提供启示和借鉴,助力于发挥水利工程协同管理全过程的协同效应.     

MANAGEMENT VARIATION AND PRICE EXPECTATIONS IN AN INTERTEMPORAL FOREST SECTOR MODEL

The assessment of wood supply in long-run forest sector analysis by harvest scheduling approaches entails an assumption of rational behavior among forest owners. The implications of the assumption are investigated by projecting wood supply in southern Sweden under alternate price expectations and with different requirements on the variation in forest management practices. The results suggest that the formation of price expectations is of prime importance in modeling wood supply and influences the effect of variation.     

The fuzzy decision problem: An approach to the point estimation problem with fuzzy information

This paper is devoted to the extension of the Bayesian method for the point estimation, when the available information is ‘vague’.In the nonfuzzy case, the parametric estimation can be approached as a particularization in the statistical decision problem. This motivates us to accomplish the mentioned extension by looking at the parametric estimation in the fuzzy case as a special situation in the fuzzy decision problem (defined by Tanaka, Okuda and Asia).In this way, concepts in the fuzzy decision problem are first ‘expressed’ in the estimation terminology. Then, on the basis of these concepts, we shall introduce some notions and state some interesting results. Finally, several illustrative examples will be exposed.     

EXPECTED DISCOUNTED PENALTY FUNCTION AT RUIN FOR RISK PROCESS PERTURBED BY DIFFUSION UNDER INTEREST FORCE

In this article, the risk process perturbed by diffusion under interest force is considered, the continuity and twice continuous differentiability for Фδ（u,w） are discussed,the Feller expression and the integro-differential equation satisfied by Фδ （u ,w） are derived. Finally, the decomposition of Фδ（u,w） is discussed, and some properties of each decomposed part of Фδ（u,w） are obtained. The results can be reduced to some ones in Gerber and Landry＇s,Tsai and Willmot＇s, and Wang＇s works by letting parameter δ and （or） a be zero.     

Optimal procedures for the discrete time/cost trade-off problem in project networks

We describe two algorithms, based on dynamic programming logic, for optimally solving the discrete time/cost trade-off problem (DTCTP) in deterministic activity-on-arc networks of the CPM type, where the duration of each activity is a discrete, nonincreasing function of the amount of a single nonrenewable resource committed to it. The first algorithm is based on a procedure proposed by Bein, Kamburowski and Stallmann for finding the minimal number of reductions necessary to transform a general network to a series-parallel network. The second algorithm minimizes the estimated number of possibilities that need to be considered during the solution procedure. Both procedures have been programmed in C and tested on a large set of representative networks to give a good indication of their performance, and indicate the circumstances in which either algorithm performs best.     

ENTRY AND EXIT OF LABOR AND CAPITAL IN A FISHERY

ABSTRACT. Exit and entry of fishermen, as well as vessels, is modeled explicitly. If the speed of exit and entry of fishermen is less than instantaneous the wage rate varies with the fortunes of the fishing firms and affects the endogenous labor supply creating a second transmission mechanism from profits to effort. There are realistic cases where this mechanism has important effects on the stability of the dynamic system and on the effects of taxes (subsisdies) on the size of the fish stock. If labor supply depends negatively on the wage rate, the immediate effect of an increase in the tax rate is to increase effort and harvest. This condition makes it also more probable that the dynamic system is unstable. In those cases where the dynamic system is unstable the increase in the tax rate increases overexploitation not only in the short‐term but also in the long‐term.     

VMI策略下的综合生产计划研究

本重点研究了在供应链环境下，基于供应商管理客户库存(VMI)策略的供应商综合生产计划问题。模型综合考虑了供应链的存储费用、缺货损失和生产费用，提出供应链总成本最小目标模型，并采用搜索法结合线性规划给出了算例求解和分析结论。     

An inventory model under two levels of trade credit and limited storage space derived without derivatives

This paper tries to incorporate both Huang’s model [Y.F. Huang, Optimal retailer’s ordering policies in the EOQ model under trade credit financing, J. Oper. Res. Soc. 54 (2003) 1011–1015] and Teng’s model [J.T. Teng, On the economic order quantity under conditions of permissible delay in payments, J. Oper. Res. Soc. 53 (2002) 915–918] by considering the retailer’s storage space limited to reflect the real-life situations. That is, we want to investigate the retailer’s inventory policy under two levels of trade credit and limited storage space. Furthermore, we adopt Teng’s viewpoint [J.T. Teng, On the economic order quantity under conditions of permissible delay in payments, J. Oper. Res. Soc. 53 (2002) 915–918] that the retailer’s unit selling price and the purchasing price per unit are not necessarily equal. Then, an algebraic approach is provided and three easy-to-use theorems are developed to efficiently determine the optimal cycle time. Some previously published results of other researchers can be deduced as special cases. Finally, a numerical example is given to illustrate these theorems and managerial insights are drawn.     

Discrete Compound Poisson Process with Curved Boundaries: Polynomial Structures and Recursions

This paper provides a review of recent results, most of them published jointly with Ph. Picard, on the exact distribution of the first crossing of a Poisson or discrete compound Poisson process through a given nondecreasing boundary, of curved or linear shape. The key point consists in using an underlying polynomial structure to describe the distribution, the polynomials being of generalized Appell type for an upper boundary and of generalized Abel–Gontcharoff type for a lower boundary. That property allows us to obtain simple and efficient recursions for the numerical determination of the distribution.      

Longevity risk and the Grim Reaper’s toxic tail: The survivor fan charts

This paper uses survivor fan charts to illustrate the prospective density functions of future male survival rates. The fan charts are based on a version of the Cairns–Blake–Dowd model of male mortality that provides a good fit to recent mortality data for England and Wales. They indicate that although none of us can escape the Grim Reaper, survivorship uncertainty is greatest for males aged a little over 90, confirming that there exists a ‘toxic tail’ for those institutions, such as annuity and pension providers, which are obliged to make payments to them for as long as they live. We also find that taking account of uncertainty in the parameters of the underlying mortality model leads to major increases in estimates of the widths of the fan charts.