The systems approach and fuzzy set theory bridging the gap between mathematical and language-oriented economists

Ideas are presented to show how fuzzy mathematics can be applied in macro-economics in combination with the systems approach in order to bridge the gap between mathematical and language-oriented economists.Two reasons are given.From a mathematical point of view, fuzzy sets, fuzzy relations and fuzzy logic are not fuzzy at all. They are all well defined, but tend to be more complicated than traditional, mathematical concepts used in economics.From a language-oriented economist's point of view, fuzzy sets, etc. are used to express mathematically the type of concepts which are typical in language and most valuable in dealing with complex systems like an economy.The paper deals with economics in general terms, but examples are provided to illustrate the ideas.     

A Result On the Probability Measures Dominated by g-Expectation

It is proved that a probability measure is dominated by g-expectation ε_μ[·] if and only if it can begenerated by Girsanov transformation via a process which is uniformly bounded by μ.     

Analysis of Queueing Systems with Synchronous Single Vacation for Some Servers

We study a multi-server M/M/c type queue with a single vacation policy for some idle servers. In this queueing system, if at a service completion instant, any d (d c) servers become idle, these d servers will take one and only one vacation together. During the vacation of d servers, the other c–d servers do not take vacation even if they are idle. Using a quasi-birth-and-death process and the matrix analytic method, we obtain the stationary distribution of the system. Conditional stochastic decomposition properties have been established for the waiting time and the queue length given that all servers are busy.     

Statistical Inference in a Linear Model for Spatially Located Sensors and Random Input

In the paper we consider a random linear model for observations provided by spatially located sensors measuring signals coming from one source. For this model a set of sufficient and complete statistics are found, and it is shown that the maximum likelihood estimators of unknown parameters (characteristics of the source) are functions of those statistics. The problem of nonnegative estimators of variance components of the model is shortly discussed. Comparisons of the mean squared errors of several estimators are given. Numerical example concerning hunting for defects in solar cells is considered in details.     

ESR spectroscopy as a tool for identifying joining fragments of antique marbles: the example of a pulpit by Donatello and Michelozzo

ESR spectroscopy is one of the physicochemical techniques used to characterize archaeological white marbles and obtain information about their quarries of provenance. This is done by measuring selected spectral features of the Mn(2+) impurity ubiquitously present in marbles and developing a statistical classification rule from the variable vectors measured for a significant number of samples of known provenance (the quarry database). Now we show that the overall variability exhibited by the same spectroscopic features decreases rapidly with the linear dimensions of the sampled block and can be used to distinguish fragments belonging to the same piece of stone from those simply originating from the same quarry. Application of the method to the seven marble panels of the Donatello pulpit in Prato (Tuscany) shows that they have all been cut from the same single block and their different degradation must be ascribed to differential weathering and to the different conservation treatments undergone in the past. The limits and possible drawbacks of the method are also discussed.     

A Mean–variance analysis of arbitrage portfolios

Based on the careful analysis of the definition of arbitrage portfolio and its return, the author presents a mean–variance analysis of the return of arbitrage portfolios, which implies that Korkie and Turtle's results ( B. Korkie, H.J. Turtle, A mean–variance analysis of self-financing portfolios, Manage. Sci. 48 (2002) 427–443) are misleading. A practical example is given to show the difference between the arbitrage portfolio frontier and the usual portfolio frontier.     

A Bayesian analysis for the seismic data on Taiwan

A Bayesian approach is used to analyze the seismic events with magnitudes at least 4.7 on Taiwan. Following the idea proposed by Ogata (1988,Journal of the American Statistical Association,83, 9–27), an epidemic model for the process of occurrence times given the observed magnitude values is considered, incorporated with gamma prior distributions for the parameters in the model, while the hyper-parameters of the prior are essentially determined by the seismic data in an earlier period. Bayesian inference is made on the conditional intensity function via Markov chain Monte Carlo method. The results yield acceptable accuracies in predicting large earthquake events within short time periods.     

Asymmetric conditional volatility in international stock markets

Recent studies show that a negative shock in stock prices will generate more volatility than a positive shock of similar magnitude. The aim of this paper is to appraise the hypothesis under which the conditional mean and the conditional variance of stock returns are asymmetric functions of past information. We compare the results for the Portuguese Stock Market Index PSI 20 with six other Stock Market Indices, namely the SP 500, FTSE 100, DAX 30, CAC 40, ASE 20, and IBEX 35. In order to assess asymmetric volatility we use autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity specifications known as TARCH and EGARCH. We also test for asymmetry after controlling for the effect of macroeconomic factors on stock market returns using TAR and M-TAR specifications within a VAR framework. Our results show that the conditional variance is an asymmetric function of past innovations raising proportionately more during market declines, a phenomenon known as the leverage effect. However, when we control for the effect of changes in macroeconomic variables, we find no significant evidence of asymmetric behaviour of the stock market returns. There are some signs that the Portuguese Stock Market tends to show somewhat less market efficiency than other markets since the effect of the shocks appear to take a longer time to dissipate.     

重力场与静电场特点的比较

“场”是一种客观存在的物质，但由于“场”具有不易直接感受的特殊存在形态，同学们对“场”的物质性的理解不够深刻，解决“场”的相关问题时也感到棘手．笔者就高中阶段最典型的两种场——“重力场”和“静电场”的力学性质与能量特点进行比较，使同学们对“场”的概念有更深刻的认识．     

Estimating means from a non-I.I.D. Mixture of Poisson samples

In this paper, a family of estimators for estimating means when mixing two independent Poisson samples is proposed. This family is based on the probability-generating function of the Poisson distribution and is offered as an alternative to the maximum likelihood estimators, which have some drawbacks. These estimators include the method of moments estimators as a special limiting case.