基于投资衍生产品的缴费型养老金的最优投资策略

研究确定缴费(DC)型养老金可投资衍生产品时的最优投资问题. 假设在金融市场中有3种可投资产品, 包含1种无风险资产、1种股票和1种金融衍生产品. 假定养老金管理者以最大化养老金的期末财富效用为目标, 运用动态随机规划原理, 分别得到了指数效用和幂效用2种情况下DC型养老金最优投资策略的显式解, 给出了风险敞口的数值结果, 并分析了模型参数对风险敞口的影响.     

Income drawdown option with minimum guarantee

This paper deals with a constrained investment problem for a defined contribution (DC) pension fund where retirees are allowed to defer the purchase of the annuity at some future time after retirement.     

基于ARIMA的基金组合绩效成长性的预测

对投资机构而言,准确预测其投资组合的成长性能够为其未来的组合管理提供有效参考.ARIMA时间序列模型能够针对具有时间序列属性的数据进行预测.选取三只债券型基金组成投资组合A并计算其组合指数,以中信标普全债指数为参考,通过ARIMA时间序列模型预测投资组合A的组合指数与中信标普全债指数的差额来预测投资组合A的成长性.     

证券收益率的极大线性无关组及两基金分离定理

在无套利假设下,利用概率论结合线性代数的方法进一步研究了当n种风险资产的协方差矩阵∑是奇异时的证券投资组合问题,在均值-方差模型的框架下得到模型的一些本质特征,并证明了此时的两基金分离定理仍然成立的.     

基于模糊集理论的铁路建设项目融资方案综合后评价

铁路建设项目融资方案的优劣决定了项目建设的风险和效益.本文首次提出并明确了铁路建设项目融资方案后评价的概念,指出铁路建设项目融资方案后评价包括投入总资金后评价、资金结构后评价、融资成本后评价、融资风险后评价和资金使用计划后评价五项内容,给出了基于模糊集理论的铁路建设项目融资方案综合后评价的模糊综合评价模型,并通过实例验证了模型的实用性和可操作性,为后评价时点对已运营的铁路建设项目融资方案优劣评价提供了一种简单、科学的综合评价方法.     

Reexamining the feasibility of diversification and transfer instruments on smoothing catastrophe risk

The present study discusses the effects of diversification and transfer of risk by global insurers on smoothing the peak of catastrophic claims. Empirical experiments indicate that the occurrence frequency of natural catastrophes (NatCat) has a serially dependent trend and that the Cox–Ingersoll–Ross square-root model for global insured losses is best fit than any other static distributions. The results are used to develop a NatCat risk insurance model that sets up a NatCat premium formula, uses the serially dependent dynamics of insured loss and establishes the cash flow of all involved parties while considering corporate income tax and no additional risk premium. The simulation results based on this model shows that fluctuation reserves, catastrophe bonds and catastrophe funds with payback schemes are feasible options for smoothing risk because they can benefit all long-term involved parties, including insurance company shareholders, the insured, bondholders, the fund and the government (i.e. taxpayers).     

封闭式债券基金风格模糊聚类分析

封闭式债券基金能够在降低风险的同时获取投资收益,并且有着较长的久期,是稳健型投资者实现配置型投资收益较常选择的一个投资品种.利用模糊聚类分析,对封闭式债券基金主要的评价参数进行量化分析,从风险控制、收益水平、选时能力等方面将市场上现有的封闭式债券基金进了投资风格上的划分,为投资者如何选择封闭式债券基金提供了一个较为直观的方法.     

Optimal Dynamic Control for the Defined Benefit Pension Plans with Stochastic Benefit Outgo

Abstract

This work is devoted to a continuous time dynamic pension funding model in a defined benefit plan of an employment system. We extend the analysis of some standard models by incorporating a source of uncertainty in the benefit outgo. The key assumption is that the random benefits increase on average at an exponential rate. We model the preference of the manager with the main objective of minimizing both the contribution rate risk and the solvency risk. Two different situations are studied regarding the investment decisions. In the first case, the fund is invested at a constant, risk-free rate of interests; in the second case, the promoter invests in a portfolio with a risky asset and a risk-free bond. We provide, in both cases, explicit expressions for the actuarial liability, normal costs, value function, and the supplementary contribution rate.     

证券投资基金管理人选择中的信号传递博弈

本文通过对证券投资基金这种资金运作方式的分析和研究,结合信号传递博弈模型,提出一种对资金管理人投资能力的评估方法.主要分析基金管理人的努力成本对最后投资能力评估结果的影响,为投资人选择基金管理人提供新的思路,也为基金管理人争取融资成功提供一定的帮助.     

Mixed-integer programming approaches for index tracking and enhanced indexation

We consider the problem of reproducing the performance of a stock market index, but without purchasing all of the stocks that make up the index, index tracking. We also consider the problem of out-performing the index, enhanced indexation. We present mixed-integer linear programming formulations of these problems. Our formulations include transaction costs, a constraint limiting the number of stocks that can be purchased and a limit on the total transaction cost that can be incurred. As our formulations of these problems are mixed-integer linear programs we can use a standard solver (Cplex). Numeric results are presented for eight data sets drawn from major markets. The largest of these data sets involves over 2000 stocks.