具有反馈、不可靠服务台和二次多选择服务M/G/1重试排队系统

An M/G/1 retrial queue with two-phase service and feedback is studied in this paper, where the server is subject to starting failures and breakdowns during service. Primary customers get in the system according to a Poisson process, and they will receive service immediately if the server is available upon arrival. Otherwise, they will enter a retrial orbit and are queued in the orbit in accordance with a first-come-first-served (FCFS) discipline. Customers are allowed to balk and renege at particular times. All customers demand the first "essential"service, whereas only some of them demand the second "multi-optional" service. It is assumed that the retrial time, service time and repair time of the server are all arbitrarily distributed.The necessary and sufficient condition for the system stability is derived. Using a supplementary variable method, the steady-state solutions for some queueing and reliability measures of the system are obtained.     

流体机械外特性性能试验台内流研究

本文采用三维N-S方程和标准Κ-ε两方程模型对自行设计的30000m~3/h风量测试装置在两种送风方式(侧送/顶送)下多流量测量范围(喷嘴开数9/3/1)的内流特性进行了数值分析,结果表明设计能达到流量测量的精度要求;侧送风比顶送风方式有更好的测量精度;在同种送风方式下小流量范围测量精度更高;侧送风测量精度最高值在满量程的1/3到2/3之间.文中分析并指出了影响顶送风方式测量精度的原因在于转弯处分离流动对测量流道的堵塞.     

高峰期内的公交服务可靠度研究

在分析高峰期内道路交通现状和高峰客流特点的基础上,从可靠度理论的角度,对乘客在车内的拥挤成本、由于等车产生的时间延误惩罚成本等进行了分析,建立了高峰期内公共交通系统服务可靠度的模型,是评价公交服务能力的一种有效方法.     

不同价格水平下排队策略研究

在M/M/1排队中引入了不同的服务价格,基于"收益-成本"结构,以顾客和企业均追求利益最大化为出发点,在两种不可见情形下,研究了顾客均衡策略行为和企业最优服务定价决策,通过数值模拟,描述了休假期服务价格对顾客均衡策略的影响,以及几乎不可见情况下休假期服务价格对企业收益的作用和完全不可见情况下休假期服务价格随潜在到达率的变化情况,以及当企业获得最大收益时,正常工作期和休假期服务价格的关系.     

退货成本不同承担方式下供应链最优服务水平的确定

讨论了销售剩余成本分担情况下,供应链最优周期服务水平和订货策略的优化问题;对多周期补货策略提出了"变周期向前改进"的动态优化法.分析表明:销售剩余的处理方式和剩余成本的分配因子,对于最优服务水平有重要的影响;基于成本分担的多周期补货策略在销售季节的大部分时期维持了较高而稳定的服务水平和订货量.     

一个修理工的M/M/N可修排队的可靠性分析

本文研究了有一个修理工的 ,服务台忙时与闲时故障率不同的M/M/N可修排队的可靠性问题 ,本文给出关于有效服务台数的稳态分布的方程组 ,分析了当N =1时和 ξ1 =ξ2 时两个特例 ,所得结果与文献 [2 ]结果一致 .     

家庭医生制服务可持续发展策略、措施及思考

采用文献分析、专家咨询、试点研究尝试等方法,构建了以家庭医生、家庭健康协管员、社区卫生服务机构为主线的家庭医生制服务模式基本框架体系和以家庭健康诊断为基础、家庭医生培训与认定为保障、家庭健康管理为重点的运行机制。提出家庭医生培养、认定以及配套政策是家庭医生制服务可持续发展的关键点。     

Hierarchical nonparametric survival modeling for demand forecasting with fragmented categorical covariates

This paper addresses the problem of data fragmentation when incorporating imbalanced categorical covariates in nonparametric survival models. The problem arises in an application of demand forecasting where certain categorical covariates are important explanatory factors for the diversity of survival patterns but are severely imbalanced in the sense that a large percentage of data segments defined by these covariates have very small sample sizes. Two general approaches, called the class‐based approach and the fusion‐based approach, are proposed to handle the problem. Both reply on judicious utilization of a data segment hierarchy defined by the covariates. The class‐based approach allows certain segments in the hierarchy to have their private survival functions and aggregates the others to share a common survival function. The fusion‐based approach allows all survival functions to borrow and share information from all segments based on their positions in the hierarchy. A nonparametric Bayesian estimator with Dirichlet process priors provides the data‐sharing mechanism in the fusion‐based approach. The hyperparameters in the priors are treated as fixed quantities and learned from data by taking advantage of the data segment hierarchy. The proposed methods are motivated and validated by a case study with real‐world data from an operation of software development service.     

基于SEM的沿海养老地产发展动力机制研究

分析养老地产的发展过程,从其服务功能、供应端、需求端三方面分析养老地产发展,构建养老地产发展的结构方程模型(SEM),研究其发展动力机制,结合沿海养老地产状况收集数据,对模型进行实证分析,明确了沿海经济带养老地产发展的关键路径.结果表明,功能服务中开发商的开发计划对发展影响较大;养老地产供应方面政府鼓励性政策对发展作用较明显;养老地产需求方面消费者满意度对发展推动作用最大.这三个方面作为影响沿海养老地产发展的主要动力,养老地产企业和相关政府可配合调整姿态,提高发展动力.