Estimation in the continuous time mover‐stayer model with an application to bond ratings migration

The usual tool for modelling bond ratings migration is a discrete, time‐homogeneous Markov chain. Such model assumes that all bonds are homogeneous with respect to their movement behaviour among rating categories and that the movement behaviour does not change over time. However, among recognized sources of heterogeneity in ratings migration is age of a bond (time elapsed since issuance). It has been observed that young bonds have a lower propensity to change ratings, and thus to default, than more seasoned bonds. The aim of this paper is to introduce a continuous, time‐non‐homogeneous model for bond ratings migration, which also incorporates a simple form of population heterogeneity. The specific form of heterogeneity postulated by the proposed model appears to be suitable for modelling the effect of age of a bond on its propensity to change ratings. This model, called a mover–stayer model, is an extension of a Markov chain. This paper derives the maximum likelihood estimators for the parameters of a continuous time mover–stayer model based on a sample of independent continuously monitored histories of the process, and develops the likelihood ratio statistic for discriminating between the Markov chain and the mover–stayer model. The methods are illustrated using a sample of rating histories of young corporate issuers. For these issuers the default probabilities predicted by the Markov chain and mover–stayer models are different. In particular for 1–4 years old bonds the mover–stayer model estimates substantially lower default probabilities from rating C than a Markov chain. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Absorbing boundary conditions for reaction-diffusion equations

We treat here of the question of absorbing boundary conditionsfor nonlinear diffusion equations. We use the conditions designedfor the linear equation, we prove them to be well posed forthe nonlinear problem, and through numerical experiments thatthey are well suited for reaction–diffusion equations.     

期货经纪公司保证金的一种确定方法

本文基于马尔可夫链在存储论中的应用，结合Ergodic定理，得到确定期货经纪公司保证金的Ergodic模型，即一个双目标规划问题，然后应用乘积最大化准则，将该模型转化为单目标规划问题来求解。该方法考虑期货经纪公司承担的风险和对投资者的吸引程度，为保证金的确定提供新的思路。     

基于MMD算法的HMM参数重估计的矩阵表示

本文提出的MMD算法用于提高模型区别错误信息和正确信息的能力．利用该算法在对模型的参数进行重估计时．涉及到复杂的目标函数的梯度运算．击运用矩阵运算使得梯度运算变得简单明了，因此本文给出了MMD算法下的HMM参数重估计的矩阵表示形式并给出了证明．     

NCD系统的数学理论

无索赔折扣系统(No Claim Discount system,简记为NCD系统)是世界各国机动车辆险中广泛采用的一种经验费率厘定机制.本文尝试建立了NCD系统严谨的数学理论, 重点讨论了NCD系统的数学建模和稳态分析.此外,作为本文必要的数学前提,首先在第2节着重探讨了随机矩阵间的随机优序关系,并将所得结论运用至齐次不可约且遍历的马尔科夫链的研究中,这些内容也有其独立的数学上的兴趣.     

Dendrimers as scaffolds for multifunctional reversible addition–fragmentation chain transfer agents: Syntheses and polymerization

The synthesis and characterization of novel first‐ and second‐generation true dendritic reversible addition–fragmentation chain transfer (RAFT) agents carrying 6 or 12 pendant 3‐benzylsulfanylthiocarbonylsulfanylpropionic acid RAFT end groups with Z‐group architecture based on 1,1,1‐hydroxyphenyl ethane and trimethylolpropane cores are described in detail. The multifunctional dendritic RAFT agents have been used to prepare star polymers of poly(butyl acrylate) (PBA) and polystyrene (PS) of narrow polydispersities (1.4 < polydispersity index < 1.1 for PBA and 1.5 < polydispersity index < 1.3 for PS) via bulk free‐radical polymerization at 60 °C. The novel dendrimer‐based multifunctional RAFT agents effect an efficient living polymerization process, as evidenced by the linear evolution of the number‐average molecular weight (M_n) with the monomer–polymer conversion, yielding star polymers with molecular weights of up to M_n = 160,000 g mol^?1 for PBA (based on a linear PBA calibration) and up to M_n = 70,000 g mol^?1 for PS (based on a linear PS calibration). A structural change in the chemical nature of the dendritic core (i.e., 1,1,1‐hydroxyphenyl ethane vs trimethylolpropane) has no influence on the observed molecular weight distributions. The star‐shaped structure of the generated polymers has been confirmed through the cleavage of the pendant arms off the core of the star‐shaped polymeric materials. © 2004 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. J Polym Sci Part A: Polym Chem 42: 5877–5890, 2004     

Synthesis and characterization of well‐defined diblock and triblock copolymers of poly(N‐isopropylacrylamide) and poly(ethylene oxide)

Well‐defined diblock and triblock copolymers composed of poly(N‐isopropylacrylamide) (PNIPAM) and poly(ethylene oxide) (PEO) were successfully synthesized through the reversible addition–fragmentation chain transfer polymerization of N‐isopropylacrylamide (NIPAM) with PEO capped with one or two dithiobenzoyl groups as a macrotransfer agent. ¹H NMR, Fourier transform infrared, and gel permeation chromatography instruments were used to characterize the block copolymers obtained. The results showed that the diblock and triblock copolymers had well‐defined structures and narrow molecular weight distributions (weight‐average molecular weight/number‐average molecular weight < 1.2), and the molecular weight of the PNIPAM block in the diblock and triblock copolymers could be controlled by the initial molar ratio of NIPAM to dithiobenzoate‐terminated PEO and the NIPAM conversion. © 2004 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. J Polym Sci Part A: Polym Chem 42: 4873–4881, 2004     

Permeability of N2, Ar,He, O2, and CO2 through as‐extruded amorphous and biaxially oriented polyester films: Dependence on chain mobility

For as‐extruded amorphous and biaxially orientated polyester films based on poly(ethylene terephthalate), poly(ethylene naphthalate), and copolymers containing poly(ethylene terephthalate) and poly(ethylene naphthalate) moieties, permeability, diffusion, and solubility coefficients are interpreted in terms of chain mobility. The influence of polymer morphology is determined by comparison of the data for as‐extruded amorphous sheets and materials produced with different biaxial draw ratios. The crystallinities of the samples were assessed using differential scanning calorimetry and density measurements. Changes in mobility at a molecular level were investigated using dielectric spectroscopy and dynamic mechanical thermal analysis. The study, in conjunction with our earlier work, leads to the conclusion that the key to understanding differences in gas transport is the difference in local chain motions rather than in free volume. This was illustrated by the permeability results for He, Ar, N₂, and O₂ in the range of polyesters. However, the permeability of CO₂ was found to require alternative explanations because of polymer–penetrant interactions. For biaxially oriented samples, the differences in diffusivity are not only due to differences in local chain motions, but also additional constraints resulting from the increased crystallinity and chain rigidity—which also act to hinder segmental mobility. The effectiveness of the reduction in permeability in the biaxially oriented films is consequently determined by the ability of the polymer chains to effectively align and form crystalline structures. © 2004 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. J Polym Sci Part B: Polym Phys 42: 2916–2929, 2004     

Addition–fragmentation chain transfer: Molecular weight distributions and retardation in the system methyl methacrylate/methyl α‐(bromomethyl)acrylate

A detailed investigation of addition–fragmentation chain transfer (AFCT) in the free‐radical polymerization of methyl methacrylate (MMA) in the presence of methyl α‐(bromomethyl)acrylate (MBMA) was carried out to elucidate mechanistic details with efficient macromonomer synthesis as an underlying goal. Advanced modeling techniques were used in connection with the experimental work. Curve fitting of simulated and experimental molecular weight distributions with respect to the rate coefficient for addition of propagating radicals to MBMA (k_add) over 60–120 °C resulted in E_add = 21.7 kJ mol^?1 and A_add = 2.18 × 10⁶ M^?1 s^?1 and a very weak temperature dependence of the chain‐transfer constant (E_add ≈ E_p). The rate coefficient for fragmentation of adduct radicals at 60 °C was estimated as k_f ≈ 39 s^?1 on the basis of experimental data of the MMA conversion and the concentration of 2‐carbomethoxy‐2‐propenyl end groups. The approach developed is generic and can be applied to any AFCT system in which copolymerization does not occur and in which the resulting unsaturated end groups do not undergo further reactions. © 2004 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. J Polym Sci Part A: Polym Chem 42: 2640–2650, 2004     

Piecewise Deterministic Markov Control Processes with Feedback Controls and Unbounded Costs

The control of piecewise-deterministic processes is studied where only local boundedness of the data is assumed. Moreover the discount rate may be zero. The value function is shown to be solution to the Bellman equation in a weak sense; however the solution concept is strong enough to generate optimal policies. Continuity and compactness conditions are given for the existence of nonrelaxed optimal feedback controls.