Evaluation of the Kushida Method of short-term earthquake prediction

Kushida and Kushida found that FM radio waves from stations at distances over-the-horizon are received before earthquakes. Based on this finding, since the mid-1990’s, the Kushidas have been practicing “Earthquake Precursor Detection Experiment”. The performance of the Kushida method during 2000–2003 has been evaluated by checking their predictions against the actual seismicity. During the period, there were 92 Kushida predictions mentioning the possibility of M ≥ 5.5 event, whereas there were 49 M ≥ 5.5 earthquakes in the Japanese region. If the criteria for successful prediction are set as: the errors in date is less than one day, epicentral position is roughly within specified area, and error in M is less than 0.5, the success rate was 20% and the alarm rate was 12%. If we relax the criteria to: the errors in dates within 10 days, epicenter within additional 100 km of specified area and the magnitude error less than 1.0, the success rate was 40% and the alarm rate was 27%. These rates may look insufficient for a practical prediction method. Considering, however, the fact that no other short-term prediction has ever been made in Japan so far it is a significant achievement. Moreover, it was found that in almost all failed predictions, meaningful signals were detected although the interpretations were incorrect. This indicates that the method is promising provided further investigation is carried out. The same evaluation at the M ≥ 6.0 level showed that the general performance was similar to the M ≥ 5.5 level, except that both success rate and alarm rate were lower at the M ≥ 6.0 level. If this unexpected finding is real, it might be inherent to the methodology using scattering of short-wave length radio waves as suggested by M. Hayakawa and may contain important information in understanding the earthquake physics and LAI-coupling. The results of the present study indicate strongly that the earthquake prediction research using anomalous transmission of VHF FM radio waves should be enhanced in parallel with complementary research in other frequency ranges.     

Study on the dispersion characteristic of the plasma-loaded relativistic BWO

The dispersion characteristic of the plasma-loaded relativistic backward wave oscillator has been analyzed. The theoretical model has been established and the numerical calculations accord with the experimental results, which provides some useful suggestions on the designing of slow-wave structure of BWO.     

THE BLOW-UP PROPERLIES OF SOLUTIONS TO SEMILINEAR HEAT EQUATIONS WITH NEUMANN BOUNDARY CONDITIONS

1IntroductionInthispaper,weconsidertheinitial-boundaryvalueproblem,where"o(x)isnon-negativesmoothfunctionsatisfying"o.(0)=0,"o.(1)=1'Whenconsideringtheblow-upofsolution,thefollowingproblemarisenaturally:Doesblow-upoccur?Howdoesthesolutionapproachtheblow-uptime'!Andwilersisthehotspotlocated(blow-upset)?WelookattheheatequationwithanonlillearboundaryconditiollHerefiisaboundeddomaininR",p>1isarealnumber.IthasbeenknownforalongtimethattheDroblelil(1.1).(1.2)withAL(~,0)--'no(x)doesnothaveaglobals…     

Surface effects in field-induced smectic transitions

We study the surface behavior of a semi-infinite smectogenic sample bounded by a solid wall, in the presence of an external electric field. Our analysis is performed in the framework of a Landau-de Gennes theory. For the sake of simplicity, we consider only the case in which, in the absence of field and surfaces, a direct isotropic to smectic-A transition occurs, while in the presence of the electric field a nonspontaneous nematic phase appears. Two new surface phases are identified, namely a parasmectic and a surface-induced smectic phase. The shifts in the transition temperatures and the critical behavior of the surface states are analyzed. Received: 25 August 1997 / Accepted: 23 January 1998     

一类时变需求且存货影响销售率的EOQ模型

从实际背景出发,在R AM P型需求和存货影响销售率条件下,讨论了一类以缺货开始的变质性物品的EOQ模型.给出了模型的求解方案及单位时间内平均利润最大化的两个充分条件,并用数值算例进行了验证.     

光盘阵列系统的一种性能优化方法

提出了一种用低性能驱动器组建高性能光盘阵列系统性能的优化方法。针对传统的低性能光盘驱动器(驱动器内部数据传输率及接口速率均较低),提出了一种新型的数据传输模式。采用此优化方法可以使光盘阵列系统的整体性能得到较大地提高。同时还可以提高系统整体的性价比。     

Kinetic limit of a conservative lattice gas dynamics showing long-range correlations

An anisotropic lattice gas dynamics is investigated for which particles on ^d jump to empty nearest neighbor sites with (fast) rate ^–2 in a specified direction and some particular configuration-dependent rates in the other directions. The model is translation and reflection invariant and is particle conserving. The space coordinate in the fast-rate direction is rescaled by ^–1. It follows that the density field converges in probability, as 0, to the corresponding solution of a nonlinear diffusion-type equation. The microscopic fluctuations about the deterministic macroscopic evolution are determined explicitly and it is found that the stationary fluctuations decay via a power law (1/r ^d ) with the direction dependence of a quadrupole field.     

Relationships between characteristics in periodic Poisson queues

We study single server periodic queues in the day equilibrium conditions. The following characteristics of interest are considered at time of dayt: V^p(t)-the work load, L^p(t)-the number of customers and u^p(t)-the departure rate. We give relationships between E[V^p(t)], E[L^p(t)] and u^p(t). We also prove that E[V^p(t)] < and E[L^p(t)] < provided the second moment of the service time is finite.     

Slow quenching for a one-dimensional kinetic Ising model: Residual energy and domain growth

A one-dimensional kinetic Ising model with Glauber dynamics subjected to a slow continuous quench to zero temperature is studied. For a rather general class of cooling schemes, described by a time-dependent temperatureT(t), the mean domain sizeL(t) is calculated along with the residual energye _res (r) as a function of the cooling rater. If the attempt frequency =₀ exp(–/kT), entering into the transition rates, is temperature dependent (i.e., the barrier is non-zero), the asymptotic growth ofL(t) is given byL()–L(t)~exp[–/kT(t)]. For this case the residual energy exhibits a power-law behaviore _res(r) ~r ^{/2(1 + )} forr small, where =4J/ andJ is the nearest neighbor coupling constant. For =0 and for certain cooling schemes the residual energy is zero andL(t)~t1/2, independent ofr.     

粒径和流速对吸附速率的影响

本文主要考察了吸附剂的粒径大小及动态循环时流速大小对吸附速率的影响，根据膜扩散限制和孔隙扩散限制的理论模型对其影响作了定量描述。