通过脱碳控制全球平均温度

Establishing a reliable method to predict the global mean temperature (T_e) is of great importance because CO₂ reduction activities require political and global cooperation and significant financial resources. The current climate models all seem to predict that the earth's temperature will continue to increase, mainly based on the assumption that CO₂ emissions cannot be lowered significantly in the foreseeable future. Given the earth's multifactor climate system, attributing atmospheric CO₂ as the only cause for the observed temperature anomaly is most likely an oversimplification; the presence of water (H₂O) in the atmosphere should at least be considered. As such, T_e is determined by atmospheric water content controlled by solar activity, along with anthropogenic CO₂ activities. It is possible that the anthropogenic CO₂ activities can be reduced in the future. Based on temperature measurements and thermodynamic data, a new model for predicting T_e has been developed. Using this model, past, current, and future CO₂ and H₂O data can be analyzed and the associated T_e calculated. This new, esoteric approach is more accurate than various other models, but has not been reported in the open literature. According to this model, by 2050, T_e may increase to 15.5 ℃ under "business-as-usual" emissions. By applying a reasonable green technology activity scenario, T_e may be reduced to approximately 14.2 ℃. To achieve CO₂ reductions, the scenario described herein predicts a CO₂ reduction potential of 513 gigatons in 30 years. This proposed scenario includes various CO₂ reduction activities, carbon capturing technology, mineralization, and bio-char production; the most important CO₂ reductions by 2050 are expected to be achieved mainly in the electricity, agriculture, and transportation sectors. Other more aggressive and plausible drawdown scenarios have been analyzed as well, yielding CO₂ reduction potentials of 1051 and 1747 gigatons, respectively, in 30 years, but they may reduce global food production. It is emphasized that the causes and predictions of the global warming trend should be regarded as open scientific questions because several details concerning the physical processes associated with global warming remain uncertain. For example, the role of solar activities coupled with Milankovitch cycles are not yet fully understood. In addition, other factors, such as ocean CO₂ uptake and volcanic activity, may not be negligible.     

Hypersurfaces of prescribed mean curvature enclosing a given body

Given a smooth domain Ω in ℝ ^m+1 with compact closure and a smooth integrable functionh: ℝ ^m+1→ℝ satisfyingh(x)≥H _∂Ω (x) on ∂Ω whereH _∂ω denotes the mean curvature of ∂Ω calculated w.r.t. the interior unit normal we show that there is a setA⊂ℝ ^m+1 with the properties andH _∂A=h on ∂A.     

Optimal convergence properties of kernel density estimators without differentiability conditions

Let X ₁, X ₂, ..., X _n be independent observations from an (unknown) absolutely continuous univariate distribution with density f and let % MathType!MTEF!2!1!+-% feaafeart1ev1aaatCvAUfeBSjuyZL2yd9gzLbvyNv2CaerbuLwBLn% hiov2DGi1BTfMBaeXafv3ySLgzGmvETj2BSbqefm0B1jxALjhiov2D% aebbfv3ySLgzGueE0jxyaibaiiYdd9qrFfea0dXdf9vqai-hEir8Ve% ea0de9qq-hbrpepeea0db9q8as0-LqLs-Jirpepeea0-as0Fb9pgea% 0lrP0xe9Fve9Fve9qapdbaqaaeGacaGaaiaabeqaamaabaabcaGcba% GabmOzayaajaGaaiikaiaadIhacaGGPaGaeyypa0Jaaiikaiaad6ga% caWGObGaaiykamaaCaaaleqabaGaeyOeI0IaaGymaaaakmaaqadaba% Gaam4saiaacUfadaWcgaqaaiaacIcacaWG4bGaeyOeI0Iaamiwamaa% BaaaleaacaWGPbaabeaakiaacMcaaeaacaWGObGaaiyxaaaaaSqaai% aadMgacqGH9aqpcaaIXaaabaGaamOBaaqdcqGHris5aaaa!5356!\[\hat f(x) = (nh)^{ - 1} \sum\nolimits_{i = 1}^n {K[{{(x - X_i )} \mathord{\left/ {\vphantom {{(x - X_i )} {h]}}} \right. \kern-\nulldelimiterspace} {h]}}} \] be a kernel estimator of f(x) at the point x, \s-<x<, with h=h _n (h _n O and nh _n , as n) the bandwidth and K a kernel function of order r. Optimal rates of convergence to zero for the bias and mean square error of such estimators have been studied and established by several authors under varying conditions on K and f. These conditions, however, have invariably included the assumption of existence of the r-th order derivative for f at the point x. It is shown in this paper that these rates of convergence remain valid without any differentiability assumptions on f at x. Instead some simple regularity conditions are imposed on the density f at the point of interest. Our methods are based on certain results in the theory of semi-groups of linear operators and the notions and relations of calculus of finite differences.This research was supported in part by grants from the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada and the University of Alberta Central Research Fund.     

Some exact expressions for the mean and higher moments of functions of sample moments

Examples of exact expressions for the moments (mainly of the mean) of functions of sample moments are given. These provide checks on alternative developments such as asymptotic series for n, and simulation processes. Exact expressions are given for the mean of the square of the sample coefficient of variation, particularly in uniform sampling; Frullani integrals studied by G. H. Hardy arise. It should be kept in mind that exact results for (joint) moment generating functions (mgfs) are of interest as they produce a means of obtaining exact results for (cross) moments—including moments with negative indices. Thus an exact expression for the joint mgf of the 1st two noncentral moments can be used to obtain the mean of the (c.v.)² (but not for the mean of the c..). A general expression is given for the moment generating function of the sample variance. The limitations of Fisher's symbolic formula for the characteristic function of sample moments (or more general statistics) are noted.This research was sponsored by the Applied Mathematical Sciences Research program, Office of Energy Research, U. S. Department of Energy under contract DE-AC0584OR21400 with the Martin Marietta Energy Systems. Inc.     

Proof of some conjectures on the mean-value of Titchmarsh series — III

With some applications in view, the following problem is solved in some special case which is not too special. LetF(s) =Σ _n ^∞ =1a_n λ _n ^−s be a generalized Dirichlet series with 1 =λ ₁ <λ ₂ < …,λ _n≤Dn, andλ _n+1 -λ _n ≥D ^{− 1} λ _n+1 ^{− a} where α>0 andD(≥ 1) are constants. Then subject to analytic continuation and some growth conditions, a lower bound is obtained for . These results will be applied in other papers to appear later.     

Partition function zeros for the one-dimensional ordered plasma in Dirichlet boundary conditions

We consider the grand canonical partition function for the ordered one-dimensional, two-component plasma at fugacity in an applied electric fieldE with Dirichlet boundary conditions. The system has a phase transition from a low-coupling phase with equally spaced particles to a high-coupling phase with particles clustered into dipolar pairs. An exact expression for the partition function is developed. In zero applied field the zeros in the plane occupy the imaginary axis from –i to –i_c and i_c to i for some _c. They also occupy the diamond shape of four straight lines from ±i_c to _c and from ±i_c to –_c. The fugacity acts like a temperature or coupling variable. The symmetry-breaking field is the applied electric fieldE. A finite-size scaling representation for the partition in scaled coupling and scaled electric field is developed. It has standard mean field form. When the scaled coupling is real, the zeros in the scaled field lie on the imaginary axis and pinch the real scaled field axis as the scaled coupling increases. The scaled partition function considered as a function of two complex variables, scaled coupling and scaled field, has zeros on a two-dimensional surface in a domain of four real variables. A numerical discussion of some of the properties of this surface is presented.     

Novel aromatic carboxamides from dehydroabietylamine as potential fungicides: Design,synthesis and antifungal evaluation

The present study was carried out to design and synthesize a number of novel aromatic carboxamide derivatives of dehydroabietylamine. The preliminary antifungal assay indicated that most of title compounds displayed moderate to good antifungal activity toward the six fungal strains in vitro. Compounds 3i, 3q, 4b and 4d showed significant antifungal activity against Sclerotinia sclerotiorum, with EC₅₀ values ranging from 0.067 ～ 0.393 mg/L. Compounds 3i, 4b and 4d also showed pronounced mycelial growth inhibition activities against B. cinerea and A. solani. Furthermore, in the in vivo assay, compound 4b exhibited brilliant protective activity against S. sclerotiorum-infected rape leaves. Meanwhile, the in vivo bioassay on tomato plants infected by B. cinerea showed that compound 3i and 4d displayed excellent protective activity at 200 mg/L, which were near to boscalid. Primary mechanistic study revealed that 4b could inhibit sclerotia formation as well as reduce the exopolysaccharide level. SEM and TEM analysis indicated that 4b possessed a strong ability to destroy the surface morphology of mycelia, cell structure and seriously interfere with the growth of the fungal pathogen. In addition, 4b exhibited good inhibitory activity (IC₅₀ = 23.3 ± 1.6 μM) toward succinate dehydrogenase (SDH). Molecular modeling study confirmed the binding modes between compound 4b and SDH. The above antifungal results and fungicidal mechanism study revealed that this class of dehydroabietylamine derivatives could be potential SDH inhibitors and lead compounds for novel fungicides development.     

基于Bayes方法的诊断模型分析

文中证明了在Bayes框架下,当漂移参数7服从有信息先验时,在相当广泛的统计模型中,数据删除模型(CDM)和均值漂移模型(MSOM)的参数估计不相等,几个数值例子验证了相应的结论.     

An optimal rigidity theorem for complete submanifolds in a sphere

It is proved that if M^n is an n-dimensional complete submanifold with parallel mean curvature vector and flat normal bundle in S^n＋p（1）, and if supM S 〈 α（n, H）, where α（n,H）=n＋n^3/2（n-1）H^2-n（n-2）/n（n-1）√n^2H^4＋4（n-1）H^2,then M^n must be the totally urnbilical sphere S^n（1/√1＋H^2）.An example to show that the pinching constant α（n, H） appears optimal is given.     

Optimized Selection of Water Resource Allocation Schemes Based on Improved Connection Entropy in Beijing’s Southern Plain

Increased urbanization has caused problems such as increasing water consumption and the continuous deterioration of the groundwater environment. It is necessary to consider the groundwater quality in the water resource optimization system and increase the rate of reclaimed water development to reduce the amount of groundwater exploitation and achieve sustainable development of water resources. This study used the Daxing District, a region of Beijing’s southern plain, as an example to evaluate water quality by analyzing water quality data of surface and groundwater from 2012 to 2016 and actual water-use schemes from 2006 to 2016. Three groundwater extraction modes were set up based on NO₃–N concentrations, water resources were optimized under three extraction modes, and water resource optimization schemes were determined based on the improved connection entropy. The results show that (1) the surface water quality was poor, and the proportion of V₄ type water in the indexes of NH₃–N and chemical oxygen demand (COD) was the largest. The surface water can only be used for agricultural irrigation. The pollution sources contributing most to NH₃–N and COD were domestic and agricultural pollution sources. (2) The groundwater quality was good. The NO₃–N index was primarily type I–III water, accounting for 95.20% of the total samples. Severe NH₃–N pollution areas were mainly in the northern region, and most regional groundwater can be used for various purposes. (3) Taking 2016 as an example, three groundwater exploitation modes were set to optimize water resource allocation, and the results showed that the rate of groundwater development and NO₃–N pollution decreased significantly after optimization. (4) Connection entropy is an evaluation method that combines connection numbers and entropy, including identify, difference, and opposition entropy. As connection entropy being a kind of complete entropy, which can reflect the difference of the system in different states, based on the improved connection entropy, the connection entropies of optimal water resource allocation and actual water-use schemes were calculated. The connection entropy of groundwater exploitation mode 3 was less than that of groundwater exploitation modes 1 and 2 and actual water-use schemes from 2006 to 2016. Therefore, exploitation mode 3’s water resource optimization scheme was recommended. In the paper, satisfactory results have been obtained. As a kind of complete entropy, connection entropy has great research value in dealing with complex hydrological problems. This study’s research methods and outcomes can provide methodological and theoretical lessons for water management in freshwater-deficient areas.