基于网络媒体信息的传染病传播模型及其仿真研究

当一种突发传染病开始流行时,政府、媒体会以各种形式告知民众,有防范意识的民众将采取一定的防范措施来降低感染率.考虑面对一种突发传染病,将易感群体划分为具有防范意识和不具有防范意识两种群体,利用生命周期理论,分析网络媒体信息报道对传染病传播的影响,以此为依据建立一种改进的传染病传播模型(MSI).利用网络大数据得到对传染病有防范意识群体的观测值信息,利用神经网络技术对模型MSI的参数进行反演.然后对模型MSI数值仿真得到传染病传播过程,提出了相应的控制措施.     

国外保险定价的发展及其对我国的借鉴

回顾国外保险定价的发展概况，介绍两种重要的金融定价模型资本资产定价模型和期权定价模型及其在保险定价中的应用，并就我国保险业借鉴国外保险定价先进的思想、方法和技术，发展和完善我国保险定价工作提出建议。     

随机利率下产量保险定价

通过假设利率的随机过程遵循Heath-Jarrow-Morton(1992)模型,以及利率波动结构和价格波动结构仅为时间的函数,扩展了Kunt K.Aaese(2004)产量保险模型,并借助多元正态分布函数得到其显示表达式.     

The Cradle-to-Cradle Life Cycle Assessment of Polyethylene terephthalate: Environmental Perspective

Over the last several years, the number of concepts and technologies enabling the production of environmentally friendly products (including materials, consumables, and services) has expanded. One of these ways is cradle-to-cradle (C2C) certified^TM. Life cycle assessment (LCA) technique is used to highlight the advantages of C2C and recycling as a method for reducing plastic pollution and fossil depletion by indicating the research limitations and gaps from an environmental perspective. Also, it estimates the resources requirements and focuses on sound products and processes. The C2C life cycle measurements for petroleum-based poly (ethylene terephthalate) (PET) bottles, with an emphasis on different end-of-life options for recycling, were taken for mainland China, in brief. It is considered that the product is manufactured through the extraction of crude oil into ethylene glycol and terephthalic acid. The CML analysis method was used in the LCIA for the selected midpoint impact categories. LCA of the product has shown a drastic aftermath in terms of environmental impacts and energy use. But the estimation of these consequences is always dependent on the system and boundary conditions that were evaluated throughout the study. The impacts that burden the environment are with the extraction of raw material, resin, and final product production. Minor influences occurred due to the waste recycling process. This suggests that waste degradation is the key process to reduce the environmental impacts of the production systems. Lowering a product’s environmental impact can be accomplished in a number of ways, including reducing the amount of materials used or choosing materials with a minimal environmental impact during manufacture processes.     

Damage monitor and life prediction of carbon fiber-reinforced ceramic-matrix composites at room and elevated temperatures using hysteresis dissipated energy-based damage parameter

In this paper, the damage monitor and life prediction of carbon fiber-reinforced ceramic-matrix composites (C/SiC CMCs) have been investigated using the hysteresis dissipated energy-based damage parameter. The evolution of the interface shear stress, hysteresis dissipated energy, hysteresis dissipated energy-based damage parameter and the broken fibers fraction vs. cycle number, the fatigue life S?N curves of unidirectional, cross-ply and 2.5D C/SiC composites at room temperature and 800 °C in air atmosphere have been analyzed. For unidirectional C/SiC, the hysteresis dissipated energy and hysteresis dissipated energy-based damage parameter first increase and then decrease with cycle number, and the fatigue limit stress decreases from 88% tensile strength at room temperature to 20% of the tensile strength at 800 °C in air atmosphere; for cross-ply C/SiC, the hysteresis dissipated energy and hysteresis dissipated energy-based damage parameter decrease with increasing applied cycles, and the fatigue limit stress decreases from 85% tensile strength at room temperature to 22% tensile strength at 800 °C in air; and for 2.5D C/SiC, the hysteresis dissipated energy and hysteresis dissipated energy-based damage parameter increases with cycle number, and the fatigue limit stress decreases from 70% tensile strength at room temperature to 25% tensile strength at 800 °C in air.     

A Markov Model of Production, Trade, and Money: Theory and Artificial Life Simulation

The paper generalizes the Kiyotaki-Wright trade model by treatingthe trading period as a finite game, so Nash's theorem can be used to provethe existence of equilibrium, and by treating the economy as a Markovprocess, so an ergodic theorem can be used to show the existence ofequilibria with desirable properties (e.g., in which money exists). A Markovmodel of trade also allows us to add complexity to the economy withoutadding corresponding complexity to the analysis of the model's properties.The paper also provides artificial life simulations of the Markov economysuggesting that monetary equilibria are dynamically stable and do notrequire high levels of learning or information processing on the part ofagents.     

均值-方差准则下的多期最优保险投资(英文)

近年来,最优保险投资问题吸引了越来越多的注意。一般这个问题是在连续时间框架下来研究的。本文针对这一问题建立离散时间的最优控制模型。应用动态规划原理求解模型对应的近似问题,得到了最优投资策略和投资有效边界的解析表达形式。本文得到的最优投资策略和投资有效边界均依赖于承保参数。通过数值例子分析了承保参数对最优投资策略和有效边界的影响。     

污垢热阻恒定应力加速寿命试验研究

为缩短渐近污垢试验时间,本文定义了污垢寿命,利用恒定应力加速寿命试验(简称恒加试验),基于定数截尾 指数寿命统计分析方法,求得加速系数a, b近似最小二乘估计,然后由加速模型求得在正常应力水平下的平均寿命估 计。实例计算结果表明,对渐近型污垢热阻进行加速试验是可信的,也是可行的。这对污垢试验研究具有重要价值。