网上技术市场发展模式与运行管理机制--以中国浙江网上技术市场为例

网上技术市场正逐步发展成为技术交易的主要形式.本文以中国浙江网上技术市场为例,从其定位和动力模式两方面探讨了网上技术市场的发展模式,以及从信息资源管理、技术交易管理和市场运作三方面探讨了网上技术市场的运行管理机制.     

A numerical method to price European derivatives based on the one factor LIBOR Market Model of interest rates

We consider the problem of pricing European interest rate derivatives based on the LIBOR Market Model (LMM) with one driving factor. We derive a closed-form approximation of the transition probability density functions associated to the stochastic dynamical systems that describe the behaviour of the forward LIBOR interest rates in the LMM. These approximate formulae are based on a truncated power series expansion of the solutions of the Fokker–Planck equations associated to the LMM. The approximate probability density functions obtained are used to price European interest rate derivatives using the method of discounted expectations. The resulting integrals are low dimensional when the most commonly traded European interest rate derivatives are considered, and they can be computed efficiently using elementary numerical quadrature schemes (i.e. Simpson’s rule). The algorithm obtained is very well suited for parallel computing and is tested on the problem of pricing several derivatives including an European swaption and an interest rate spread option. In both cases, the method proposed in this paper appears to be accurate (i.e. relative error of order 10⁻², 10⁻³, or even 10⁻⁴) and approximately between 278 and 63 000 times faster than previous methods based on the Monte Carlo simulation of the LMM stochastic dynamical systems.

The website http://www.econ.univpm.it/pacelli/ballestra/finance/w2 contains material that helps the understanding of this paper and makes available to the interested users the computer programs that implement the numerical method proposed.     

Suitable-portfolio investors,nondominated frontier sensitivity,and the effect of multiple objectives on standard portfolio selection

In standard portfolio theory, an investor is typically taken as having one stochastic objective, to maximize the random variable of portfolio return. But in this paper, we focus on investors whose purpose is to build, more broadly, a “suitable portfolio” taking additional concerns into account. Such investors would have additional stochastic and deterministic objectives that might include liquidity, dividends, number of securities in a portfolio, social responsibility, and so forth. To accommodate such investors, we develop a multiple criteria portfolio selection formulation, corroborate its appropriateness by examining the sensitivity of the nondominated frontier to various factors, and observe the conversion of the nondominated frontier to a nondominated surface. Furthermore, multiple criteria enable us to provide an explanation as to why the “market portfolio,” so often found deep below the nondominated frontier, is roughly where one would expect it to be with multiple criteria. After commenting on solvability issues, the paper concludes with the idea that what is the “modern portfolio theory” of today might well be interpreted as a projection onto two-space of a real multiple criteria portfolio selection problem from higher dimensional space. M. Hirschberger: Research conducted while a Visiting Scholar at the Department of Banking and Finance, Terry College of Business, University of Georgia, October 2003–March 2004.     

Market efficiency in foreign exchange markets

We investigate the relative market efficiency in financial market data, using the approximate entropy(ApEn) method for a quantification of randomness in time series. We used the global foreign exchange market indices for 17 countries during two periods from 1984 to 1998 and from 1999 to 2004 in order to study the efficiency of various foreign exchange markets around the market crisis. We found that on average, the ApEn values for European and North American foreign exchange markets are larger than those for African and Asian ones except Japan. We also found that the ApEn for Asian markets increased significantly after the Asian currency crisis. Our results suggest that the markets with a larger liquidity such as European and North American foreign exchange markets have a higher market efficiency than those with a smaller liquidity such as the African and Asian markets except Japan.     

Hitting time distributions in financial markets

We analyze the hitting time distributions of stock price returns in different time windows, characterized by different levels of noise present in the market. The study has been performed on two sets of data from US markets. The first one is composed by daily price of 1071 stocks trade for the 12-year period 1987-1998, the second one is composed by high frequency data for 100 stocks for the 4-year period 1995-1998. We compare the probability distribution obtained by our empirical analysis with those obtained from different models for stock market evolution. Specifically by focusing on the statistical properties of the hitting times to reach a barrier or a given threshold, we compare the probability density function (PDF) of three models, namely the geometric Brownian motion, the GARCH model and the Heston model with that obtained from real market data. We will present also some results of a generalized Heston model.     

The CTRW in finance: Direct and inverse problems with some generalizations and extensions

We study financial distributions within the framework of the continuous time random walk (CTRW). We review earlier approaches and present new results related to overnight effects as well as the generalization of the formalism which embodies a non-Markovian formulation of the CTRW aimed to account for correlated increments of the return.     

Modelling the behaviour of unemployment rates in the US over time and across space

This paper provides evidence that unemployment rates across US states are stationary and therefore behave according to the natural rate hypothesis. We provide new insights by considering the effect of key variables on the speed of adjustment associated with unemployment shocks. A highly-dimensional VAR analysis of the half-lives associated with shocks to unemployment rates in pairs of states suggests that the distance between states and vacancy rates respectively exert a positive and negative influence. We find that higher homeownership rates do not lead to higher half-lives. When the symmetry assumption is relaxed through quantile regression, support for the Oswald hypothesis through a positive relationship between homeownership rates and half-lives is found at the higher quantiles.     

Characterizing emerging European stock markets through complex networks: From local properties to self-similar characteristics

We investigate the properties of the returns of the main emerging stock markets from Europe by means of complex networks. We transform the series of daily returns into complex networks, and analyze the local properties of these networks with respect to degree distributions, clustering, or average line length. We further use the clustering coefficients as quantities describing the local structure of the network, and approach them by using multifractal analysis. We find evidence of scale-free networks and multifractality of clustering coefficients.     

Moment condition failure in stock returns: UK evidence

We examine the issue of moments existence in the UK stock market. It is found that the second moment of stock returns is finite, and therefore, the infinite variance stable distribution is ruled out as a candidate for modelling stock returns. In contrast with the US evidence, we cannot rule out the possibility that the fourth moment is finite.