A new distance measure including the weak preference relation: Application to the multiple criteria aggregation procedure for mixed evaluations

We introduce a new distance measure between two preorders that captures indifference, strict preference, weak preference and incomparability relations. This measure is the first to capture weak preference relations. We illustrate how this distance measure affords decision makers greater modeling power to capture their preferences, or uncertainty and ambiguity around them, by using our proposed distance measure in a multiple criteria aggregation procedure for mixed evaluations.     

Free boundary problem for a fully nonlinear and degenerate parabolic equation in an angular domain

This paper concerns with the problem of how to running an insurance company to maximize his total discounted expected dividends. In our model, the dividend rate is limited in $[0,M]$ and the company is allowed to transfer any proportion of risk by reinsuring. So there are two strategies which we call dividend strategy and reinsurance strategy. The objective function and the corresponding optimal two strategies are the solution and the two free boundaries of the following Barenblatt parabolic equation

$v_t?\underset{0\le a\le 1}{\max }?(\frac{1}{2}{a}^2{\sigma }^2{v}_{xx}+a\mu v_x)+cv?\underset{0\le l\le M}{\max }?[(1?v_x)l]=0$

under certain boundary conditions on an angular domain

$Q_T=\{(x,t)|0<x<Mt,0<t\le T\}.$

The main effort is to analyze the properties of the solution and the free boundaries to show the optimal decision for the insurance company.     

Orbits in a stochastic Goodwin–Lotka–Volterra model

This paper examines the cycling behavior of a deterministic and a stochastic version of the economic interpretation of the Lotka–Volterra model, the Goodwin model. We provide a characterization of orbits in the deterministic highly non-linear model. We then study a stochastic version, with Brownian noise introduced via a heterogeneous productivity factor. Existence conditions for a solution to the system are provided. We prove that the system produces cycles around a unique equilibrium point in finite time for general volatility levels, using stochastic Lyapunov techniques for recurrent domains. Numerical insights are provided.     

Stochastic preference analysis in numerical preference relations

Numerical preference relations (NPRs) consisting of numerical judgments can be considered as a general form of the existing preference relations, such as multiplicative preference relations (MPRs), fuzzy preference relations (FPRs), interval MPRs (IV-MPRs) and interval FPRs (IV-FPRs). On the basis of NPRs, we develop a stochastic preference analysis (SPA) method to aid the decision makers (DMs) in decision making. The numerical judgments in NPRs can also be characterized by different probability distributions in accordance with practice. By exploring the judgment space of NPRs, SPA produces several outcomes including the rank acceptability index, the expected priority vector, the expected rank and the confidence factor. The outcomes are obtained by Monte Carlo simulation with at least 95% confidence degree. Based on the outcomes, the DMs can choose some of them which they find most useful to make reliable decisions.     

On stochastic auctions in risk-averse electricity markets with uncertain supply

This paper studies risk in a stochastic auction which facilitates the integration of renewable generation in electricity markets. We model market participants who are risk averse and reflect their risk aversion through coherent risk measures. We uncover a closed form characterization of a risk-averse generator’s optimal pre-commitment behaviour for a given real-time policy, both with and without risk trading.     

On uniform propagation of chaos

In this paper we obtain a time-uniform propagation estimate for a system of interacting diffusion processes. Using a well defined metric function h , our result guarantees a time-uniform estimate for the convergence of a class of interacting stochastic differential equations towards their mean field limit, under conditions that ensure that the decay associated to the internal dynamics term dominates the interaction and noise terms. Our result should have diverse applications, particularly in neuroscience, and allows for models more elaborate than the one of Wilson and Cowan. In particular, the internal dynamics need not be that of linear decay.