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31.
The usual tool for modelling bond ratings migration is a discrete, time‐homogeneous Markov chain. Such model assumes that all bonds are homogeneous with respect to their movement behaviour among rating categories and that the movement behaviour does not change over time. However, among recognized sources of heterogeneity in ratings migration is age of a bond (time elapsed since issuance). It has been observed that young bonds have a lower propensity to change ratings, and thus to default, than more seasoned bonds. The aim of this paper is to introduce a continuous, time‐non‐homogeneous model for bond ratings migration, which also incorporates a simple form of population heterogeneity. The specific form of heterogeneity postulated by the proposed model appears to be suitable for modelling the effect of age of a bond on its propensity to change ratings. This model, called a mover–stayer model, is an extension of a Markov chain. This paper derives the maximum likelihood estimators for the parameters of a continuous time mover–stayer model based on a sample of independent continuously monitored histories of the process, and develops the likelihood ratio statistic for discriminating between the Markov chain and the mover–stayer model. The methods are illustrated using a sample of rating histories of young corporate issuers. For these issuers the default probabilities predicted by the Markov chain and mover–stayer models are different. In particular for 1–4 years old bonds the mover–stayer model estimates substantially lower default probabilities from rating C than a Markov chain. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
32.
TANG Chen ZHANG Fang YAN Hai-Qing CHEN Zhan-Qing LUO Tao 《理论物理通讯》2005,44(3):435-439
We develop the three-step explicit and implicit schemes of exponential fitting methods. We use the three- step explicit exponential fitting scheme to predict an approximation, then use the three-step implicit exponential fitting scheme to correct this prediction. This combination is called the three-step predictor-corrector of exponential fitting method. The three-step predictor-corrector of exponential fitting method is applied to numerically compute the coupled nonlinear Schroedinger equation and the nonlinear Schroedinger equation with varying coefficients. The numerical results show that the scheme is highly accurate. 相似文献
33.
非等间距序列建模过程中存在的问题及改进 总被引:6,自引:0,他引:6
在研究非等间距序列的基础上 ,本文将非等间距累加运用于非等间距序列的建模过程中 ,使原有模型得到改进 .实例表明 ,改进后模型的精度有了很大提高 相似文献
34.
Dominique Fourdrinier William E. Strawderman 《Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics》2003,55(4):803-816
We consider estimation of loss for generalized Bayes or pseudo-Bayes estimators of a multivariate normal mean vector, θ. In
3 and higher dimensions, the MLEX is UMVUE and minimax but is inadmissible. It is dominated by the James-Stein estimator and by many others. Johnstone (1988,
On inadmissibility of some unbiased estimates of loss,Statistical Decision Theory and Related Topics, IV (eds. S. S. Gupta and J. O. Berger), Vol. 1, 361–379, Springer, New York) considered the estimation of loss for the usual
estimatorX and the James-Stein estimator. He found improvements over the Stein unbiased estimator of risk. In this paper, for a generalized
Bayes point estimator of θ, we compare generalized Bayes estimators to unbiased estimators of loss. We find, somewhat surprisingly,
that the unbiased estimator often dominates the corresponding generalized Bayes estimator of loss for priors which give minimax
estimators in the original point estimation problem. In particular, we give a class of priors for which the generalized Bayes
estimator of θ is admissible and minimax but for which the unbiased estimator of loss dominates the generalized Bayes estimator
of loss. We also give a general inadmissibility result for a generalized Bayes estimator of loss.
Research supported by NSF Grant DMS-97-04524. 相似文献
35.
C. H. Hesse 《Statistical Inference for Stochastic Processes》2007,10(1):75-95
In this work the Cauchy problem for the one-dimensional heat equation is considered. In contrast to existing literature it
is assumed that the initial state f is unknown and that information regarding f is obtained by some process of measurement. To enhance realism, both measurement errors and missing data are allowed for.
Under assumptions on f in the Fourier-domain first an approximation to f is derived from the data by means of a novel uncertainty principle. Then, it is studied how this perturbation in the initial
state propagates with time.
相似文献
36.
曾六川 《高等学校计算数学学报(英文版)》2003,12(1)
The purpose of this paper is to investigate the problem of approximating fixed points of non-Lipschitizian asymptotically pseudocontractive mappings in an arbitrary real Banach space by the modified Ishikawa iterative sequences with errors. 相似文献
37.
Lihong Wang 《Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics》2004,56(2):251-264
The purpose of this paper is to investigate the asymptotic properties of the least squares estimates (L
2-estimates) and the least absolute deviation estimates (L
1-estimates) of the parameters of a nonlinear regression model subject to a set of equality and inequality restrictions, which
has a long-range dependent stationary process as its stochastic errors. Then we will compare the asymptotic relative efficiencies
of the above estimators. 相似文献
38.
39.
估计死亡率分布的一个最大熵模型 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
本文提出了一种估计死亡率分布的新模型一最大熵模型。该模型直接从样本信息出发,不需要对待估分布的概率密度函数或先验分布作任何假定,从而克服了极大似然估计和贝叶斯估计的不足。而且通过两个例子的计算结果,表明该方法与样本数据的拟合效果要好于其它两种方法。 相似文献
40.
We derive a test problem for evaluating the ability of time-steppingmethods to preserve the statistical properties of systems inmolecular dynamics. We consider a family of deterministic systemsconsisting of a finite number of particles interacting on acompact interval. The particles are given random initial conditionsand interact through instantaneous energy- and momentum-conservingcollisions. As the number of particles, the particle density,and the mean particle speed go to infinity, the trajectory ofa tracer particle is shown to converge to a stationary Gaussianstochastic process. We approximate this system by one describedby a system of ordinary differential equations and provide numericalevidence that it converges to the same stochastic process. Wesimulate the latter system with a variety of numerical integrators,including the symplectic Euler method, a fourth-order Runge-Kuttamethod, and an energyconserving step-and-project method. Weassess the methods' ability to recapture the system's limitingstatistics and observe that symplectic Euler performs significantlybetter than the others for comparable computational expense. 相似文献