国有企业再生产-资本运营投资多阶段决策模型

在市场经济环境下,国有企业通过扩大再生产和资本运营的投资行为追求利润最大化,本文研究其同时对再生与资本运营的投资决策问题,建立以获得经济利润最大化为目的的再生产资本运营投资多阶段决策模型,并讨论该模型的经济意义,通过模拟数据进行实证分析     

FDI与中国对外贸易的向量误差修正模型

本文以中国的经济数据对外国直接投资(FDI)与对外贸易的联系做了实证检验,根据协整理论建立向量误差修正模型对此问题予以分析,得出结论是在长期和短期内进入中国的外国直接投资与中国的出口都是互补联系,同时在短期外国直接投资与中国的进口也是互补,而在长期外国直接投资与中国的进口却是替代联系。     

最优投资组合和风险补偿

本文在M arkow itz均值-方差模型的基础上,引入风险补偿函数,研究了在投资组合中协方差、半协方差、负指数等目标函数之间的关系。     

标准化风险度量与投资决策的双目标优化

标准化风险度量(SRM)作为投资中的一种新的风险度量，其较传统风险度量的优点及在投资项目比较中特有的优良性质已被证明，本文导出SRM在概率意义下的一种重要的等价形式，并以此为基础建立以标准化风险(SR)为目标或约束的投资决策优化方法，该方法的核心是将以SRM为风险度量的优化问题转化为线性规划问题的优化技术，此技术结合利用统计抽样数据，可优化含有大量金融工具的投资组合，本文在考虑交易成本的情形下建立了最小化投资的标准化风险的同时最大化其期望有效回报(EER)的双目标优化模型，最后，具体考虑了上证30指数股票组合的优化以说明所建议的方法及模型的应用并实证它们的可行、合理及优良性，其中统计抽样基于近期历史数据。     

Investment evaluation based on the commercial scope the production of natural gas

The annual production planning of a natural gas trading and transporting company is modelled as a linear system of (in)equalities. The model is used to quantify the increase of robustness with respect to commercial uncertainty, resulting from investments in production capacities. A novel concept is thecommercial scope, describing the set of future commercial scenarios that can be handled effectively. It is shown how relevant parts of the boundary of this set can be constructed using induced constraints. A numerical example is presented.     

投资控制模型解的渐近性质

本文利用初值比较法和边值比较法，讨论了投资系统解的渐适性质，得到了投资控制模型的平衡解是全局渐近稳定的．     

Making inefficient market indices efficient

This paper uses the concept of Marginal Conditional Stochastic Dominance and a generalization of the 50% Portfolio Rule to develop a tractable and parsimonious methodology for constructing a second degree Stochastic Dominance (SSD) efficient portfolio from a given, inefficient index. Because the SSD approach considers the entire probability distributions of asset returns, the resulting portfolios are efficient with respect to all risk-averse, utility-maximizing investors regardless of the form of their utility functions or the distributions of asset returns.     

Optimal excess-of-loss reinsurance and investment problem for an insurer with jump–diffusion risk process under the Heston model

In this paper, we study the optimal excess-of-loss reinsurance and investment problem for an insurer with jump–diffusion risk model. The insurer is allowed to purchase reinsurance and invest in one risk-free asset and one risky asset whose price process satisfies the Heston model. The objective of the insurer is to maximize the expected exponential utility of terminal wealth. By applying stochastic optimal control approach, we obtain the optimal strategy and value function explicitly. In addition, a verification theorem is provided and the properties of the optimal strategy are discussed. Finally, we present a numerical example to illustrate the effects of model parameters on the optimal investment–reinsurance strategy and the optimal value function.     

A real options approach to labour shifts planning under different service level targets

Firms that experience uncertainty in demand as well as challenging service levels face, among other things, the problem of managing employee shift numbers. Decisions regarding shift numbers often involve significant expansions or reductions in capacity, in response to changes in demand. In this paper, we quantify the impact of treating shifts in workforce expansion as investments, while considering required service level improvements. The decision to increase shifts, whether by employing temporary workers or hiring permanent employees, is one that involves significant risks. Traditional theories typically consider reversible investments, and thus do not capture the idiosyncrasies involved in shift management, in which costs are not fully reversible. In our study, by using real options theory, we quantify managers’ ability to consider this irreversibility, aiming to enable them to make shift decisions under conditions of uncertainty with the maximum level of flexibility. Our model aims to help managers make more accurate decisions with regard to shift expansion under service level targets, and to defer commitment until future uncertainties can be at least partially resolved. Overall, our investigation contributes to studies on the time required to introduce labour shift changes, while keeping the value of service level improvements in mind.     

Long-term real dynamic investment planning

When long-term savers plan for retirement they need to know their investment prospects in terms of real income (Merton, 2014). While inflation has traditionally been considered as a complication in financial analysis and financial practise, we obtain enhanced predictability and model fit if the real returns are targeted in conjunction with earnings-by-price minus inflation as predictor. For this latter case, we propose an investment strategy of updating the simple classical Merton proportion as we go along. This simple strategy is very close to the complicated theoretically optimal solution but has comparably much lower parameter uncertainty.