紧急输送策略的线性规划模型

以美国南弗洛里达州递避飓风袭击为例建立了紧急输送情况下的线性规划模型。其中具体建立了以SCEPD(美国南弗洛里达州紧急情况预防部门)提出的公路反向，地区分块撤离，使用小路等三个最受人们关注的策略的模型。模型的灵敏度分析能很好地解释建立更多的临时避难所、限制车辆等策略对撤离的影响。在相近的环境下，中模型解得的结果很接近官方预测的结果，并且本的模型能对更广泛的情况进行分析．可给SCEPD提供一定参考。     

优化灰导数白化值的无偏灰色GM(1,1)模型

通过优化灰导数白化值 ,建立了无偏的 GM(1,1)模型 ,给出了估计模型参数的方法 ,证明了无偏GM(1,1)模型具有白指数律重合性 ,提出了新的预测公式 .实例分析表明 ,新方法提高了模型的精度 ,扩大了模型的适用范围 .     

Simplified and complex modeling of self-sustained discharge-pumped,Ne-buffered XeCl laser kinetics

Two simple kinetic models of a Ne-buffered XeCl laser discharge are presented based on different simplifications of the chemical kinetics of a complex model that recently appeared in the literature. When applied to the study of a small-volume XeCl laser, the results of both simple and complex models are in satisfactory agreement with the experiments. Shifting to a larger-volume laser, both models show problems due to loss of stability of the discharge. A one-dimensional modelling is performed, and it is found that different assumptions on the kinetics of the NeXe⁺ ion in the discharge lead to completely different results as regards the effect of a preionization-triggered instability.     

Cellulose-polyamide 66 blends. Part II: Mechanical behavior

Blends of the natural polymer cellulose with a synthetic polymer, polyamide 66, are studied in order to determine if the expected strong interaction between them, due to hydrogen bonds, could improve their mechanical properties such as strength and elongation at break. In a previous work {Part I, J. Polym. Sci. Polym. Phys., 32 , 1437 (1994)}, the preparation technique and the characterization of cellulose-polyamide 66 (PA66) blends were described in detail. Several samples in the composition range between 0 to 70 wt % of PA66 were carefully dried and examined using dynamic mechanical and tensile tests. Based on previous work a new percolation model has been developed. It takes both linear and nonlinear mechanical behaviors into account and allows for the effect of adhesion between material domains. From comparison between experimental and predicted data, it is concluded that a partial miscibility between the amorphous phases of cellulose and PA66 exists and is responsible for a strong adhesion at their interface. Solid-state ¹³C nuclear magnetic resonance has also been used to study these samples and supports the existence of strong interactions between both homopolymers. © 1995 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.     

Learning and transfer in dynamic decision environments

An important aspect of learning is the ability to transfer knowledge to new contexts. However, in dynamic decision tasks, such as bargaining, firefighting, and process control, where decision makers must make repeated decisions under time pressure and outcome feedback may relate to any of a number of decisions, such transfer has proven elusive. This paper proposes a two-stage connectionist model which hypothesizes that decision makers learn to identify categories of evidence requiring similar decisions as they perform in dynamic environments. The model suggests conditions under which decision makers will be able to use this ability to help them in novel situations. These predictions are compared against those of a one-stage decision model that does not learn evidence categories, as is common in many current theories of repeated decision making. Both models' predictions are then tested against the performance of decision makers in an Internet bargaining task. Both models correctly predict aspects of decision makers' learning under different interventions. The two-stage model provides closer fits to decision maker performance in a new, related bargaining task and accounts for important features of higher-performing decision makers' learning. Although frequently omitted in recent accounts of repeated decision making, the processes of evidence category formation described by the two-stage model appear critical in understanding the extent to which decision makers learn from feedback in dynamic tasks. Faison (Bud) Gibson is an Assistant Professor at College of Business, Eastern Michigan University. He has extensive experience developing and empirically testing models of decision behavior in dynamic decision environments.     

AN ENCOMPASSING APPROACH TO MODELING FISHERY DYNAMICS: MODELING DYNAMIC NONLINEAR SYSTEMS

Uncertainty about the nature and significance of nonlinearities and the manner in which dynamics affect future realizations makes model specification the most difficult aspect of modeling dynamic systems. By interpreting several popular fishery models as subcases of a nesting dynamic Taylor series approximation, we isolate the specification differences between these models in a way that accounts for commonalities. On the argument that the differences due to alternative nonlinear forms are likely to be small compared to more mundane considerations such as delay difference and general dynamic lag specification, we propose an alternative model that uses the terms from the first order approximation common to all models combined with a data-based determination of the appropriate lags using the methods of state space time series analysis. Finally, the success of the alternative models is judged in an application to Pacific halibut data.     

Long-range predictive adaptive fuzzy relational control

A class of long-range predictive adaptive fuzzy relational controllers is presented. The plant behavior is described over an extended time horizon by a fuzzy relational model which is identified based on input-output closed-loop observations of the plant variables. In this class of adaptive controllers the control law attempts to minimize a quadratic cost over an extended control horizon. When used with linear models, this approach has revealed a significant potential for overcoming the limitations of one-step ahead schemes, such as the stabilization of non-minimum phase plants. Here, a uniform framework is adopted for implementing both the fuzzy model and the fuzzy controller, namely distributed fuzzy relational structures gaining from their massive parallel processing features and from the learning capabilities typical of the connectivist approaches. Issues such as maintenance during the adaptation process of the meaning of linguistic terms used at both fuzzy systems interfaces are addressed, namely by introducing a new design methodology for on-line fuzzy systems interface adaptation. The examples presented reinforce the claim of the usefulness of this new approach.     

A density functional theory computational study of the role of ligand on the stability of CuI and CuII species associated with ATRP and SET‐LRP

Atom transfer radical polymerization (ATRP) and single electron‐transfer living radical polymerization (SET‐LRP) both utilize copper complexes of various oxidation states with N‐ligands to perform their respective activation and deactivation steps. Herein, we utilize DFT (B3YLP) methods to determine the preferred ligand‐binding geometries for Cu/N‐ligand complexes related to ATRP and SET‐LRP. We find that those ligands capable of achieving tetrahedral complexes with Cu^I and trigonal bipyramidal with axial halide complexes with [Cu^IIX]⁺ have higher energies of stabilization. We were able to correlate calculated preferential stabilization of [Cu^IIX]⁺ with those ligands that perform best in SET‐LRP. A crude calculation of energy of disproportionation revealed that the same preferential binding of [Cu^IIX]⁺ results in increased propensity for disproportionation. Finally, by examining the relative energies of the basic steps of ATRP and SET‐LRP, we were able to rationalize the transition from the ATRP mechanism to the SET‐LRP mechanism as we transition from typical nonpolar ATRP solvents to polar SET‐LRP solvents. © 2007 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. J Polym Sci Part A: Polym Chem 45: 4950–4964, 2007     

Global Optimal Image Reconstruction from Blurred Noisy Data by a Bayesian Approach

In this paper, a procedure is presented which allows the optimal reconstruction of images from blurred noisy data. The procedure relies on a general Bayesian approach, which makes proper use of all the available information. Special attention is devoted to the informative content of the edges; thus, a preprocessing phase is included, with the aim of estimating the jump sizes in the gray level. The optimization phase follows; existence and uniqueness of the solution is secured. The procedure is tested against simple simulated data and real data.     

Validation and verification of social processes within agent-based computational organization models

The use of simulation modeling in computational analysis of organizations is becoming a prominent approach in social science research. However, relying on simulations to gain intuition about social phenomena has significant implications. While simulations may give rise to interesting macro-level phenomena, and sometimes even mimic empirical data, the underlying micro and macro level processes may be far from realistic. Yet, this realism may be important to infer results that are relevant to existing theories of social systems and to policy making. Therefore, it is important to assess not only predictive capability but also explanation accuracy of formal models in terms of the degree of realism reflected by the embedded processes. This paper presents a process-centric perspective for the validation and verification (V&V) of agent-based computational organization models. Following an overview of the role of V&V within the life cycle of a simulation study, emergent issues in agent-based organization model V&V are outlined. The notion of social contract that facilitates capturing micro level processes among agents is introduced to enable reasoning about the integrity and consistency of agent-based organization designs. Social contracts are shown to enable modular compositional verification of interaction dynamics among peer agents. Two types of consistency are introduced: horizontal and vertical consistency. It is argued that such local consistency analysis is necessary, but insufficient to validate emergent macro processes within multi-agent organizations. As such, new formal validation metrics are introduced to substantiate the operational validity of emergent macro-level behavior. Levent Yilmaz is Assistant Professor of Computer Science and Engineering in the College of Engineering at Auburn University and co-founder of the Auburn Modeling and Simulation Laboratory of the M&SNet. Dr. Yilmaz received his Ph.D. and M.S. degrees from Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University (Virginia Tech). His research interests are on advancing the theory and methodology of simulation modeling, agent-directed simulation (to explore dynamics of socio-technical systems, organizations, and human/team behavior), and education in simulation modeling. Dr. Yilmaz is a member of ACM, IEEE Computer Society, Society for Computer Simulation International, and Upsilon Pi Epsilon. URL: http://www.eng.auburn.edu/~yilmaz