考虑参数随机性的压实黄土蠕变变形不确定性分析

现有蠕变模型的计算值为确定值,未能考虑岩土材料和参数评估过程中的随机性。为反映岩土材料的变形随机特性,基于多次重复的一维固结蠕变试验,本文研究了分级和分别加载条件下压实黄土的蠕变特性,建立了考虑参数随机性的改进Merchant模型,提出了一种蠕变变形的不确定性预测方法,并通过延安高填方工程进行了验证。结果表明,压实黄土具有明显的衰减蠕变特性,引入非线性元件的Merchant模型能更好描述土体的应变时间关系,考虑参数随机性的模型计算值近似服从正态分布;通过不确定性预测方法可以获得蠕变变形值的概率云图,且工程实测蠕变变形值落在预测范围的95%的置信区间内,说明了考虑参数随机性的蠕变变形不确定性预测方法的有效性。     

基于电桥失衡效应的高随机性PUF电路设计

通过对物理不可克隆函数(Physical Unclonable Functions, PUF)电路和电桥失衡效应的研究, 提出一种高随机性PUF电路设计方案. 该方案首先利用工艺偏差导致电桥失衡产生随机偏差电压, 然后结合电压型灵敏放大器产生随机的、不可克隆的响应信号. 在TSMC 65nm CMOS工艺下, 采用全定制方法设计PUF电路, PUF单元电路的版图面积为2.23?m×2.43?m. 通过Spectre软件, 在不同电压下对所设计PUF电路进行Monte Carlo仿真验证, 分析其逻辑功能、随机性等特性. 实验结果表明: 所设计的PUF电路在电源电压1.2V和温度25℃下随机性可达51.8%.     

Effects of Topological Randomness on Cooperation in a Deterministic Prisoner's Dilemma Game

In this work, we consider an evolutionary prisoner's dilemma game on a homogeneous random network with the richest-following strategy adoption rule. By constructing homogeneous random networks from a regular ring graph, we investigate the effects of topological randomness on cooperation. In contrast to the ordinary view that the presence of small amount of shortcuts in ring graphs favors cooperation, we find the cooperation inhibition by weak
topological randomness. The explanations on the observations are presented.     

Monte carlo simulation of copolymerization by ester interchange reaction in miscible polyester blends

The effects of reaction variables on the degree of randomness in copolymers formed by ester interchange reaction in miscible polyester melt blends were systematically investigated using a Monte Carlo method. Three reaction variables such as the molecular weight difference between two component polymers, the blend ratio, and the reaction ratio of end attack to bond flip, were particularly considered on the cubic lattice model. Ester interchange reactions were assumed to take place during reptational chain motions. It was found that the copolymerization was dependent upon the molecular weight difference and reaction ratio: As the molecular weight difference becomes smaller and when both end attack and bond flip reactions are involved simultaneously, the copolymerization is accelerated. However, the blend ratio does not affect the copolymerization process. This result is discussed in relation to the polymer chain conformation for the ester interchange reaction. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. J Polym Sci B: Polym Phys 36: 1637–1645, 1998     

Critical exponents predicted by grouping of Feynman diagrams in φ4 model

Different perturbation theory treatments of the Ginzburg‐Landau phase transition model are discussed. This includes a criticism of the perturbative renormalization group (RG) approach and a proposal of a novel method providing critical exponents consistent with the known exact solutions in two dimensions. The usual perturbation theory is reorganized by appropriate grouping of Feynman diagrams of φ⁴ model with O(n) symmetry. As a result, equations for calculation of the two‐point correlation function are obtained which allow to predict possible exact values of critical exponents in two and three dimensions by proving relevant scaling properties of the asymptotic solution at (and near) the criticality. The new values of critical exponents are discussed and compared to the results of numerical simulations and experiments.     

Entropy Method for Decision-Making: Uncertainty Cycles in Tourism Demand

A new methodology is presented for measuring, classifying and predicting the cycles of uncertainty that occur in temporary decision-making in the tourist accommodation market (apartments and hotels). Special attention is paid to the role of entropy and cycles in the process under the Adaptive Markets Hypothesis. The work scheme analyses random cycles from time to time, and in the frequency domain, the linear and nonlinear causality relationships between variables are studied. The period analysed is from January 2005 to December 2018; the following empirical results stand out: (1) On longer scales, the periodicity of the uncertainty of decision-making is between 6 and 12 months, respectively, for all the nationalities described. (2) The elasticity of demand for tourist apartments is approximately 1% due to changes in demand for tourist hotels. (3) The elasticity of the uncertainty factor is highly correlated with the country of origin of tourists visiting Spain. For example, it has been empirically shown that increases of 1% in uncertainty cause increases in the demand for apartments of 2.12% (worldwide), 3.05% (UK), 1.91% (Germany), 1.78% (France), 7.21% (Ireland), 3.61% (The Netherlands) respectively. This modelling has an explanatory capacity of 99% in all the models analysed.     

浅说“混沌”③

4　混沌运动的特征[4]“混沌”一词有多义 ,而且在不同时期都有人使用这词 .在我国古代 ,混沌 (或浑沌 )谓之“想象中世界生成以前的状态” ,曹植《七启》中曰 :“夫太极之初 ,浑沌未分” ,《辞源》上解释为 :“天地未开辟以前之元气状态” .还用“混沌”形容“浑然一体 ,不可分割”的状态 ,在《易乾凿度》上曰 :“太易者 ,未见气也 .太初者 ,气之始也 .太终者 ,形之似也 .太素者 ,质之始也 .气似质具而未相离 ,谓之混沌” .在《庄子》三十三篇中的内篇之七叫应帝王 ,此篇末尾写 :“南海之帝为倏 .北海之帝为忽 .中央之帝为浑沌 .”可见此处…     

模糊随机可靠性分析的统一模型

针对基本变量和状态变量的不确定性可能既有随机性又有模糊性的情况，通过 引入规一化因子和模糊变量隶属函数的等效概率密度函数转换，建立了同时考虑随机和模糊 两种不确定性因素的统一可靠性模型. 由于该模型将模糊变量等价转换成了随机变量，并且 这种等价变换没有改变模糊变量的可能性分布，因而随机可靠性模型的所有方法均可用于统 一模型，并且其可靠度和失效概率的计算将是准确的. 所提模型不仅适用于只有应力和强度 两个基本变量的情况，而且也适用于多个变量的情况. 用算例对所提模型与前人的采 用截集并在截集中引入人为分布的模型进行了对比，结果表明该方法更适于工程应用.     

Quantum Randomness is Chimeric

If quantum mechanics is taken for granted, the randomness derived from it may be vacuous or even delusional, yet sufficient for many practical purposes. “Random” quantum events are intimately related to the emergence of both space-time as well as the identification of physical properties through which so-called objects are aggregated. We also present a brief review of the metaphysics of indeterminism.