Risk-sensitive finite-horizon piecewise deterministic Markov decision processes

This paper deals with risk-sensitive piecewise deterministic Markov decision processes, where the expected exponential utility of a finite-horizon reward is to be maximized. Both the transition rates and reward functions are allowed to be unbounded. Feynman–Kac’s formula is developed in our setup, using which along with an approximation technique, we establish the associated Hamilton–Jacobi–Bellman equation and the existence of risk-sensitive optimal policies under suitable conditions.     

Is mortality or interest rate the most important risk in annuity models? A comparison of sensitivity analysis methods

Demographic and financial factors are key risk-drivers for insurance companies and pension funds. This paper proposes a systematic investigation for deepening our understanding how these risk drivers affect the annuity cost. We employ local and global sensitivity methods. For local sensitivity, we derive closed form expressions for the differential importance measures of perturbed annuities and connect them to the entropy of the annuity cost. For global sensitivity, we compare variance-based, moment-independent sensitivity measures and Shapley effects. In particular, moment-independent sensitivity measures and Shapley effects are compared for the first time in the case of dependent risk factors. Our framework encompasses and extends several previous results on the sensitivity analysis of annuity models. From a methodological viewpoint, the techniques compared in this paper can support analysts in building annuity models and in verifying the impact of risk drivers in their models. Numerical results using the U.S. 1990 and the U.K. 1990–1994 mortality tables show that the demographic factor is the most important risk source in low-interest rate contexts. However, when uncertainty on the two risk sources is taken into account, the financial factor becomes the global key-driver of risk. Also, interactions among the two factors appear quantitatively significant.     

What drives value creation in investment projects? An application of sensitivity analysis to project finance transactions

Evaluating the economic attractiveness of large projects often requires the development of large and complex financial models. Model complexity can prevent management from obtaining crucial information, with the risk of a suboptimal exploitation of the modelling efforts. We propose a methodology based on the so-called “differential importance measure (D)$(D)$” to enhance the managerial insights obtained from financial models. We illustrate our methodology by applying it to a project finance case study. We show that the additivity property of D grants analysts and managers full flexibility in combining parameters into any group and at the desired aggregation level. We analyze investment criteria related to both the investors’s and lenders’ perspectives. Results indicate that exogenous factors affect investors (sponsors and lenders) in different ways, whether exogenous variables are considered individually or by groups.     

基于回购契约的风险厌恶零售商的供应链协调

研究了由风险中性的供应商和风险厌恶的零售商组成的二级供应链协调问题.零售商的风险厌恶由CVaR来度量,研究表明：零售商的风险厌恶加剧了双重边际效应,恶化了供应链效益.为了实现供应链的协调,供应商提出回购契约以减轻零售商的风险顾虑引导其增加订货量,结果表明：当零售商的风险厌恶超过了一定的程度,回购契约不能实现供应链协调;当供应链可以通过回购契约实现协调时,供应链的协调利益可以在供应商和零售商之间进行任意的分配,具体的分配结果取决于他们的讨价还价能力.     

A chance-constrained portfolio selection model with risk constraints

The paper by Huang [Fuzzy chance-constrained portfolio selection, Applied Mathematics and Computation 177 (2006) 500-507] proposes a fuzzy chance-constrained portfolio selection model and presents a numerical example to illustrate the proposed model. In this note, we will show that Huang’s model produces optimal portfolio investing in only one security when candidate security returns are independent to each other no matter how many independent securities are in the market. The reason for concentrative solution is that Huang’s model does not consider the investment risk. To avoid concentrative investment, a risk constraint is added to the fuzzy chance-constrained portfolio selection model. In addition, we point out that the result of the numerical example is inaccurate.     

Optimal risk transfer for agents with germs

We introduce a new class of risk measures called generalized entropic risk measures (GERMS) that allow economic agents to have different attitudes towards different sources of risk. We formulate the problem of optimal risk transfer in terms of these risk measures and characterize the optimal transfer contract. The optimal contract involves what we call intertemporal source-dependent quotient sharing, where agents linearly share changes in the aggregate risk reserve that occur in response to shocks to the system over time, with scaling coefficients that depend on the attitudes of each agent towards the source of risk causing the shock. Generalized entropic risk measures are not dilations of a common base risk measure, so our results extend the class of risk measures for which explicit characterizations of the optimal transfer contract can be found.     

Lévy Approximation of Increment Processes with Markov Switching

We study weak convergence of increment processes with embedded Markov chain switching in a series scheme. The limit process is a Lévy process where the jump part is a compound Poisson process. A result concerning the rate of convergence is also given. This study is motivated by risk theory and its applications.     

Risk minimizing hedging for a partially observed high frequency data model

Risk-minimizing hedging strategies for contingent claims are studied in a general model for intraday stock price movements in the case of partial information. The dynamics of the risky asset price is described throught a marked point process Y, whose local characteristics depend on some unobservable hidden state variable X. In the model presented the processes Y and X may have common jump times, which means that the trading activity may affect the law of X and could be also related to the presence of catastrophic events. The hedger is restricted to observing past asset prices. Thus, we are in presence not only of an incomplete market situation but also of partial information. Considering the case where the price of the risky asset is modeled directly under a martingale measure, the computation of the risk-minimizing hedging strategy under this partial information is obtained by using a projection result (M. Schweizer, Risk minimizing hedging strategies under restricted information, Mathematical Finance 4 (1994) 327–342). This approach leads to a filtering problem with marked point process observations whose solution, obtained via the Kushner-Stratonovich equation, allows us to provide a complete solution to the heding problem.     

American options under uncertain volatility

The uncertain volatility approach to financial derivatives is extended to American options (which allow early exercise before expiry). The requirement to model at the portfolio level made necessary by the non-linearity of the approach is found to lead to a recursive structure to the exercise possibilities across options. Other novel features include: the optimality sometimes of partial exercise; an interesting resolution to the issues surrounding short options whose exercise is controlled by a buyer counterparty; and the occurrence of a simple game structure for portfolios containing both long and short options. It is demonstrated that the exercise strategies resulting can significantly alter measured uncertain volatility risk. Contrary to the set of attributes for sensible risk measures put forward by Artzner, Delbaen, Eber and Heath, this risk need not be homogenous in portfolio size- forming a convincing argument for weakening this particular requirement.     

老年抑郁症患者预后相关因素研究

目的探讨影响老年抑郁症患者预后的相关因素。方法收集住院或门诊就诊的87例老年抑郁症患者的一般资料,并进行生活事件量表（LES）、艾森克人格问卷（EPQ）、简易智力状态检查表（MMSE）和社会支持评定量表（SSRS）等因子评定,采用大体功能评定量表（GAS）评定老年抑郁症患者的预后疗效,并根据GAS分值分组,GAS≤60分视为预后差,作为研究组;GAS＞60分视为预后好,作为对照组。通过logistic回归分析,探讨影响老年抑郁症患者预后的相关因素。结果87例老年抑郁症患者中疗效差者占37.9%。两组患者在起病形式、治疗是否恰当、治疗依从性、合并慢性躯体疾病、负性生活事件值、对社会支持的利用度、EPQ的N维度分值及MMSE总分等因子方面的差异均有统计学意义（均P＜0.05）,经多元logistic回归分析发现,影响老年抑郁症预后的主要因素为：治疗依从性、慢性躯体疾病、EPQ标准N维度分值、合并精神病症状及对支持的利用度。结论老年抑郁症患者的预后可能受精神病理学、神经心理学和家庭社会等多种因素的影响,应从多方位着手,降低复发率,提高生活质量。